June 19, 2012 12:43 AM UTC

CD-2 GOP Primary a Bellwether Sleeper Race

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• by: Colorado Pols

The Longmont Times-Call’s John Fryar wrote two detailed stories on the GOP candidates running in the CD-2 primary this weekend, Boulder businessman Eric Weissmann running against state Sen. Kevin Lundberg of Berthoud. From his write-up on Sen. Lundberg:

His record is one of “holding the line on growth of government, and maintaining taxpayer-friendly policy,” he said.

Weissmann has accused Lundberg of devoting too much time to social issues, such as the senator’s outspoken views against abortion, same-sex marriages and civil unions. Lundberg denied that. He said his own examination of the bills and resolutions he’s introduced or carried shows that “the — quote — ‘social issues’ comprised less than about 5 percent.”

Lundberg said, “My focus has been on smaller government” and putting “more liberty in the hands of citizens.”

And from Fryar’s profile of Weissmann:

“I am running for Congress to get our economy moving, and for the federal government to be less expensive and less intrusive,” Weissmann said.

He wants to target the size and cost of federal government and how that’s contributed to a slumping national economy, he said.

“Those are the issues that I am about,” he said.

Weissmann contrasted his credentials with those of Kevin Lundberg, the state senator who’s also seeking to be the GOP standard-bearer in this fall’s 2nd Congressional District contest.

He called Lundberg “a career politician” who’s “been running for or serving in office since 1998.”

Our view: despite an openly expressed “Rule 11” preference for Eric Weissmann by kingmakers from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), Weissmann has failed to eliminate Sen. Lundberg from contention, and is in no way guaranteed victory in next week’s primary. Weissmann has outraised Lundberg, but not by any kind of show-stopping degree–Weissmann just hasn’t demonstrated either the fundraising chops or willingness to self-fund to compete with deep-pocketed Democratic incumbent Rep. Jared Polis in the fall. It’s possible that Weissmann just doesn’t consider Lundberg to be a threat, but that could be great folly.

Because we’ve heard from numerous sources that Sen. Lundberg has been very energetically courting the evangelical Christian constituency in CD-2. This is a bloc of voters that could prove decisive, even dominant, in an under-the-radar late June primary. If Lundberg has been able to win these very reliable voters over, the challenge for Weissmann will be to to pull in enough moderate and/or nonreligious GOP voters to overcome them.

It’s definitely possible for Weissmann to do that, but we honestly thought the NRCC’s intervention over a month and a half ago would have had more of an impact than it has. If Lundberg wins this primary, it will be evidence either of resilient “Tea Party” strength we’ll be discussing long afterwards, or the same weakness we saw when national Republicans tried to push Jane Norton on skeptical GOP primary voters. Or both–they’re not mutually exclusive.