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August 08, 2012 04:50 PM UTC

Quinnipiac/NYT in Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 45%

  • 16 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: We’re hearing a bit more than the usual pushback on the sampling for today’s Quinnipiac/NYT poll, with criticism focusing on two things: oversampling of older voters, and assumptions about Republican enthusiasm affecting the weight of their “likely voter” sample. We don’t want to neglect the possibility that these are valid concerns, but we’re really not interested in getting into the weeds here. We never treat a single poll as gospel, and the total picture from all the polling that’s been done doesn’t change dramatically with this poll in the mix.

The fact is, the New York Times has credibility, and arguing against that credibility is an uphill battle with average voters. In the end, the solution to any uncertainty about polling is more polling. Whether this poll was authoritative or an outlier is a picture that will become clear.

—–

Today’s swing-state polling from Quinnipiac University and the New York Times tells a different story than yesterday’s Public Policy Polling survey of Colorado voters:

Far more than national polls, which can track the mood of the electorate only as a whole, the results in the state-by-state polls provide a detailed snapshot of the race where it matters most, in geography and demography. They also help explain why both the Obama and Romney campaigns are focusing so much of their time and money on messages intended to resonate with such specific groups in such specific places.

The latest polls underscore just how tight the race continues to be, with the candidates running closely in Virginia and Colorado and Mr. Obama leading in Wisconsin, though not by his double-digit margin of victory in 2008. Mr. Obama won all three states in 2008.

Mr. Obama is struggling because of the economy and facing new challenges in Colorado, where his support among white men has fallen considerably from where it was in exit polls there in 2008…

Mr. Romney holds a five-point advantage in Colorado, within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Mr. Obama’s lead in Wisconsin of 6 percentage points was statistically significant, though he won the state by roughly 14 percentage points in 2008.

Here’s the full memo. Areas of strength in the poll for President Barack Obama continue to include support from women (over 50%), though that number is softer than other polls. Obama also has support among incomes under $50,000 per year and unmarried voters. Among Latino voters in Colorado, Obama enjoys a commanding 68-28% lead.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is leading solidly among white men, and has a smaller lead among higher income voters in Colorado. Romney leads among Colorado independent voters 47-45%–well within the margin of error and a clear sign of where this battle is headed.

Bottom line: Colorado Democrats would be fools to not take this poll seriously, even if the results are superficially less encouraging than other recent polls. We see no reason to pick at the methodology or sampling, though it’s a fact that no two samples are ever alike–that’s why we look at trends in polling as much as individual polls.

The results continue to show a race within the margin of error in Colorado, winnable by either candidate, and that’s consistent with every poll being taken in our state. A few points this way or that won’t change the narrative of a very tight race, except for bragging rights until the next poll.

Or an undeniable trajectory emerges.

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16 thoughts on “Quinnipiac/NYT in Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 45%”

  1. white working  class Americans continue to vote R after decades of getting screwed by the GOP. The trajectory for them has been downhill since Reagan, their hero. Do they even realize that the only tax cut the GOP wanted to let sunset was the one they benefit from the most, the payroll tax cut?  Did they notice their taxes were lower immediately after Obama was  elected? Or do they just believe the spin instead of their own returns? Do they notice that Dems have to fight tooth and nail to get anything for vets in the face of GOP opposition? It’s quite incredible and only in America.  Sigh….

  2. Without a big Colorado win for Obama neither Pace nor Miklosi has much chance of winning.  

    Hope someone will report on the Pace vs. Tipton debate tonight at Adams State

    1. The congressman has exposed himself with horrible and contradictory statements following the massacre in aurora.

      1. Perlmutter conuntered Hickenloopers belief on weapons matters by calling for strong national bans on bullets and guns.

      2. Worse Perlmutter claimed that but for Obamacare, the victims in Aurora would have lost medical coverage.

      We all know Colorado will come down to Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties. Joe Coors is the largest Colorado threat to you liberals and your national policy to strangle Americans with massive government programs and $16T+ in debt.

  3. Don’t think the millions of dollars in false attacks ads from Karl Rove and crew can’t have an impact. This is a war for hearts and minds. It’s winnable, the people of Colorado are smart, but we can’t take ANYTHING for granted. This will be a pitched battle all the way through November.

  4. That seems pretty high for a state based poll. Is there a really small sample size? I’m not doubting the credibility of the poll, but it seems as though there might be methodology problems in getting polling out of swing states these days.

    If they’re settling for 5% MoE now, what happens next month when likely voter models tighten up and everybody is thoroughly fed up with strange numbers popping up on  caller ID? I’m thinking that we may very well be in the dark in the few weeks before the election.

    1. is SOLELY determined by sample size and the confidence level (usually fixed at 95%), above a certain minimum population measured in the tens of thousands.  Methodology problems, accuracy of models, and so forth play no role in that number.  Whether it’s a state or national poll plays no role.

      Assuming a standard 95% confidence level, a 5% margin of error means they sampled about 384 people.

      1. of the fact that national polling data where they pull out state numbers is usually in the 5%-6% MoE based on how much they have to massage the sample. It seems like I’ve seen state-specific polls run at 3%-4% because they are able to get a larger sample size and can fill their model with real responses instead of extrapolating from a smaller data set. If a pollster were to run into the need to wildly weight some demos due to lack of response this early in the game, then that wouldn’t bode well for the polling picture in general.

        I’m no statistician, so I’m probably quite far off-base though.   Thankfully!? Colorado will definitely have more polls to show the trends instead of relying on isolated pictures that may be weirdly distorted by the circumstances of this too-long, overfunded election cycle.

  6. If more polls begin to look like this one numbers wise, then yes, it’s the beginning of a trend away from Obama.

    However, if Gallup, PPP, Rass et. al. keep spitting out statistical ties, than this one is most certainly an outlier and not an indication of anything.  

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