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November 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Weekend Open Thread

  • 82 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know.”

–Harry Truman

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82 thoughts on “Weekend Open Thread”

  1. The Truman quotation seems particularly ironic when it comes from the only national leader *as yet* (77 years and counting) to decide to use an atomic bomb.

    Good morning … I'm shifting from some small roles in political advocacy & election administration to a small role in facilitating communication education for high school debate and public speaking.  About 85 HS students engaged in the previous tournament …. 130 in this one.

    Denver Urban Debate League will have another on December 16-17 at the DU Law School.  No experience needed to judge — we provide some training when people sign up, and the judges are ALWAYS right.

    1. I think I am going to be able to handle the disappointment of Boebert snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, but if she wins by a few hundred votes, and her seat is the difference in the control of the house . . . I may not recover.

      1. Let's not forget Boeberts' primary role in politics…embarrass the Republican party.

        Even the close election has already been rationalized as someone elses fault.  Heidi and Joe are responsible

        We need not worry about Reppy le Pew Pew becoming an effective player in the Qanon coup. My guess is, whenever she isn't somewhere onstage or on camera, promoting herself, she will be driving the Speaker (whoever that winds up being) to distraction.

        If Adam wins, will he legislate with the Biden administration, or will he govern like a Republican? …like he suggested in his commercials.

      2. Yeah – no shit. But it's on a lot of us (including me) that we figured Adam had no chance and so didn't contribute to him.

        If he loses and decides to run again in '24 I'm guessing he'll receive a torrent of money that will give him what he needs to easily beat her.

          1. As a general rule I simply can't afford political donations, but I did give a small amount to Adam shortly after the primary. But as said elsewhere, money was not the issue, contact with voters was. In a district as vast as CD3,one candidate can only reach so many and Adam went well above and beyond not only the norm, but might even have been un-paralleled in his outreach to the district.

            If he loses, I will hold everyone who wrote off CD3 as "GOP safe" accountable. That especially includes the DCCC or whatever they are called these days.

        2. $$ is not driving a win or lose here. Adam hit every small town he could in every county while Boobert went to Mara Lago. Money will not win you a vote in this VAST district. Meeting people and speaking to them about why voting for a sane person makes sense.  You'r attitude ( seriously no offense)  is THE issue with Dems and rural voters.  

          1. I had my eye on Frisch's campaign for months though I don't live in CD3. When I saw that he was going to visit 100 communities in the last week or so of his campaign, I knew that he could get close if not win.

            For many years now the party powers in Denver have not had a good understanding of how you must campaign in rural Colorado. It's NOT 1,000's of phone calls, it's meeting in person in every small town, wherever you can. 

            3. The ground game is gigantic everywhere. And I'll buy your argument that it's even more so in a rural district. But money still has a lot of power – in any district.

              “There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.” – Mark Hanna

      3. I think you are going to see the GOP leadership clamp down on the rabid gorilla antics of MTG and BoBo… they aren’t stupid. They know they lost these midterms to those kinds of antics. The writing is on the wall. The people want the government to at least look like it’s working, not some poo slinging sideshow.

      1. Damn straight! Adam and his campaign aren't throwing in the towel. Neither am I.

        It's at least Wednesday and then a likely recount before the last dog dies.

         

      2. Being liberal does not preclude being realistic. I think…

        Yes they should put every bit of effort into curing every ballot cast by a supporter. And it's not over till every last ballot is counted.

        But the odds are awful.

      1. Cook Political Report via TPM:

        As of this morning it’s more than a theoretical possibility that Democrats will remain in charge of the House next year. Dave Wasserman of The Cook Report this morning put it this way: When you put aside the races already called and the ones in which each party has a clear lead, you’re left with six seats he considers genuine tossups – #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03. If Democrats get all six, if they run the table, they stay in the margin 218-217.

        And to his point in the article, there are advantages to Republicans holding the House for the next 2 years. But if so, I prefer it be 218/217 because the smaller the margin, the bigger the Republican caucus dumpster fire will be.

        1. Anything less than 7 or 8 votes, in combination with the tensions inside the Republican conference and the "leadership skills" of McCarthy or likely alternatives, and the very worst possibilities diminish.   I think there are too many who remember problems caused by brinkmanship over appropriations or the debt ceiling.  There also are some Republicans from redrawn districts in NY who are strongly supported by people in finance — and presumably, they lean hard against a potential massive dip in the stock market.

  3. Another fine day to not hear from Pols how sucky Granahl's campaign is.  May her dreadful campaign now be but a distant memory like Gardners and Maes.

  4. Oh how I enjoy the calm that’s come from Tuesday’s exercise in Democracy. We got this, America. 
     

    PS : the past five years has only made you a (more) bitter prick, Fat Donnie! 

    1. “Trust that your fellow Americans don’t want to go backwards”

      ~Michael Moore

      (Shout out to kwtree for first mentioning MM here a week before the election)

    2. Truly great Interview at TPM on why the Red Wave didn't happen. Explains lots of things. (Probably need to be a member)

      Democratic strategists Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier were the two most prominent voices telling us for weeks that the 2022 Red Wave was a mirage. They were right. We talked to them yesterday about what they saw. If you weren’t able to join us live you can see the discussion after the jump.

      MAGA is the organizing principle of the Republican Party. It's a cult.

      The Democratic Party is a Coalition/Big-Tent Party. The necessity is to motivate multiple demographics.

      Anti MAGA and young, female Abortion Rights voters were absolute keys to building Democratic turnout enthusiasm. For some reason the mainstream, respectable press bought in to the MAGA story line. For some reason they also treat MAGA as a legitimate political player, rather than a revanchist, propaganda machine.

  7. SAD NEWS

    Based on information I have heard, the only county in CD3 that has regular ballots to count is a very small number in Otero which will likely favor Boebert more than Frisch.

    After that there is only UOCAVA, cureables, and provisionals to count and those will not be enough to make up Frisch’s current 1122 shortfall.

    Therefore, (with heavy heart) I am projecting CD3 for Boebert.

    There will likely be a recount, but recounts rarely cough up more than a single-digit number of vote changes.

    1. Good thing that redistricting raised nearby Joe Neguse's district to D+40, from D+30, as if he really needed those extra 20,000 D votes to pad his margins. (sigh)

      1. During the redistricting hearings, I argued for keeping the mountain communities together and my proposed CD 3 was more competitive than what was adopted.

        One of the obstacles was a GOP committee member who was adamant about stretching CD7 well into the mid-section of the state, which was also detrimental to competitiveness in CD3.

  8. Breaking: 

    Cortez Masto just took a ~5000 lead in the last remaining tranche of votes in Nevada. The Senate will remain in Democratic hands, and Manchin and Synema may become irrelevant if Warnock wins the Georgia runoff.

    MSNBC called it. NBC repeated it. 

     

    1. Great news.  Claire McCaskill was optimistic on Wednesday about both AZ and NV.  She also thought that GOP voters in GA who held their nose to vote for Walker when the Senate was up for grabs, would not do so again in the runoff if the Senate majority was already decided.  That is, this news should also benefit the Warnock runoff campaign.

      And, I won $175 on a $100 bet via PredictIt that the Dems would control the Senate.  I should have bet more!

    2. Manchin and Sinema voted with Biden somewhere between 96 and 98% of the time. How do you think Biden was able to get all his judicial appointments confirmed?

      1. Manchin and Sinema scuttled a national Voting Rights Act, which would have made this election much more efficient. Defend that vote. 
        They sabotaged Build Back Better, with its desperately needed climate change and infrastructure spending. 
        They blocked changing the filibuster rule, which kept the Senate gridlocked. Pear loves that. Defend it.

        Manchin and Sinema may have voted for Biden’s judicial nominees, but they undermined his agenda every time it mattered. They’re both in the pocket of the Koch brothers, and other dark money donors. Winning the Georgia runoff will diminish their power to be naysaying, fossil fuel promoting  DINOs

        If Frisch wins, he may be very Manchinesque. Still better than Boebeet.

        1. I sympathize and mostly agree.

          I think Sinema is truly in the pocket of big oil and big pharma. She's looking out for her own financial interests, probably as a lobbyist when she retires. 

          Manchin is a pain, but I think he has more loyalty to the Dems than Sinema, despite the setbacks you mention. He may be devoted to big coal, but renewables have already won that war, and he can't stop it. And BBB included a number of really good climate change provisions. (Google David Roberts at Volts)

          The really big issues at the moment are Voting Rights Act, and the Debt Ceiling. Failure to resolve those could really screw the country and the Democrats.

          Warnock for the win and Sinema matters less. 

          1. I agree. And I think Manchin comes for an old school conservative Democrat point of view. And some of his push back I've agreed with.

            He's also spot on about needed to be able to build infrastructure without years of review. Our present system will kill green energy slowing down new transmission lines.

            So I'll be thrilled with 51 so we can ignore Sinema when necessary. But I hope they continue to listen to Manchin.

        2. "they blocked changing the filibuster rule……"

          Which the Dems would have desperately needed had the Rs taken the Senate by a vote or two. Look ahead to see what the Senate election looks like in two years. Not super good for the Dems.

           

  9. Dano, aka Eeyore,

    My best source says there are an estimated 5-6,000 military and/or overseas ballots expected. Deadline is Wednesday. The fat lady isn’t even warming up yet. 

    1. However, the majority of those have already been counted. Just because the deadline is not until next week, doesn't mean everyone waits until the deadline. The UOCAVA voters actually get their ballots a little earlier than everyone else and are usually among the first to get them back on average.

    2. I wouldn’t assume that the UOCAVA voters are conservative, or Republican voters, either. Soldiers tend to highly respect law and order, defined and predictable procedures and chains of command, rather than the disrespectful , chaos-promoting scofflaws like Boebert.

      And, if they pay attention to legislation, they’ll know that Bobo voted against veteran and military interests every chance she got, in spite of her “ support the troops” lip service. 

  10. I do hope you’re wrong on that, Dano.

    Should Frisch lose and decide to try again next term, I do hope the DCCC (or whatever it’s called next week) sends only money. No campaign people, please. They’ve cost every Democrat any chance of winning when they came in with the so-called experts. As it’s been noted on this thread, politicos in Denver seldom have a clue how rural areas can be won. The national party weenies are even worse.

     

    2. So true, westslope. It's bizarre that Dems in Colorado have to view the DCCC as a mortal enemy. They never come to the state with the attitude that they may need to learn something – they just come to impose tactics that do not work.

    1. I wonder what MSNBC knows the rest of us doesn't. I still have it at 219-215 with one race too close to call. That race is CA-13 which is only showing 46% of the vote counted and only an 84 ballot difference between the D and R candidates when I checked a few minutes ago (7 am on Sunday)

      1. WA-3 flipped.  I don't know and don't care.  If there is anything we can do, even as simple as phone/text curing help, it's worth the effort considering the stakes. 

        PS, Don't contact voters during the Broncos game.  Duh.

    2. Pueblo Chieftain reports

      Boebert was still up by 1,122 votes across Colorado's 3rd Congressional District after 3,318 additional ballots in Pueblo County were reported. Frisch picked up just 14 votes in Pueblo after the last data dump at 9:40 p.m.

      Those reported Thursday night are the last results Pueblo will report until late next week after compiling all of the ballots that continue to roll in for military/overseas voters, as well as ballots with signature discrepancies that have been corrected.

      Full information about cured ballots will be posted Friday to the Pueblo elections website by the supervisor of elections in Pueblo.

      That would be Friday the 18th. Other races around the country may have some equivalent combination of narrow margin, state "cure" procedures, and the federal UOCAVA requirements. 

      1. Why I don't think the remaining votes will be enough – because all these recent drops have been pretty even between Frisch & Boebert. So 3,00 additional votes may move Frisch up 100, but it won't move him up 1,200.

  12. Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post offers some positive strokes for Colorado's Governor Polis today. ("gift article" – no paywall — at this link)

    Among the many positive developments for Democrats in the midterm elections was the elevation of three governors as rising stars in the party. Jared Polis of Colorado, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan form a cadre of center-left pragmatists who won decisively on Tuesday.

    She's grabbing thoughts from The Denver Post, original article at this link.

  13. I’m confident Jon Joe Buck the gigolo speaks for the super-majority of white American men over 80 🤣 WTF? 

    Rebuild soil? Is Eddie Albert coming back? 

    I get the compost idea – that “dead party” Josh Hawley is talking about today will provide a lot of product. Let it set fallow for a generation? Practice crop rotation with the progressives? What are we talking about here? 

    1. I’d generally say “no” but with the participation of GenZ in this election cycle and voices like Maxwell Frost making their debut it’s hard to argue that, without a significant makeover, the Republican party of today won’t survive.
       

      I’m old enough to remember Newt Gingrich’s pronouncement of a “permanent majority” but it’s hard to argue the hill facing the GQP is formidable. 
       

      Has the GOP lost Colorado for a 'generation'?

      1. “Has the GOP lost Colorado for a ‘generation?'”

        Colorado Politics is behind a paywall.

        In my mind right now, two things have to happen for the GOP to regain some amount of relevancy, and it probably won’t happen in 2024, especially if Trump runs again.

        1) get back to some amount of normalcy on regular folks’ issues like jobs, the economy, education, transportation, et al. Discard the MAGA.

        2) figure out some way to disentangle the party from the religious right, with their anti-abortion, anti-contraception, anti gay, anti sex education, et al, patriarchal religious agenda. Voters in Colorado just aren’t buying having big government, powered by big religion, intruding in their collective bedrooms.

        1. My troll suggestion to the GOP is to stop denying the reality of climate change and stop blocking climate resiliency and adaptability programs.  Nothing says "loser" like denying the obvious.  As long as Republicans are going to embrace anti climate science views, they are going to lose elections in Colorado where the average citizen and especially the young get it.  In Gilpin, climate resilience means wildfire mitigation and evacuation preparation.

          Oh and get rid of the nuts like Tina Peters.  She is not a good example of the law and order tribe.

    2. This nation’s largest investment in conservation/soil health since the dust bowl was in the Inflation Reduction Act (it didn’t get a single vote from CO Republican delegation). Millions of dollars allocated to USDA conservation programs to fight green house gas levels while also reducing erosion, reducing run-off pollution, improving soil health, increasing soil carbon. 
      #ThanksBrandon 

  16. Disregard above. The quote from Rick Wilson, my favorite Never Trumper who is wickedly funny, didn't load.

    So I'm trying the old-fashioned way: retyping it.

    No really. I know you might think this sounds petty but watching the absolute agony of the Republican party I worked in for almost 30 years writhe in humiliation, fear and regret is the most delicious vista imaginable. Even now, I'm staring down into the Valley of Schadenfreude, overlooking the beautiful Lake of MAGA Tears and inhaling the sweet smoke of incinerated personal and corporate billions of dollars that went to dead-enders better suited for an asylum than office.''

     

    1. Well, the other side of the coin is that the MAGAts primaried pro-impeachment Republicans to have far right election deniers run for those seats.  They threw away at least 2 house seats to the Dems in doing so.

       

      1. I was thinking that, too. Peter Mejia's seat and Jamie Herrera Butler's seat went blue because the MAGA's threw out moderate Republicans.

        It is reckless for either party to nominate extremists in swing districts.

         

  18. Or you could thank the DCCC for not supporting the Democratic candidate financially. 
    But I’m sure it’s much more satisfying to you to blame AOC- who, as far as I can tell, had absolutely nothing to do with the race for Oregon’s 5th. 
     

    1. The AOC Squad do turn off moderate, truly independent, voters towards Dems. But this year I thing they were overpowered by seditionistic Republicans so I feel like their negative impact is negligible. 

    2. Why doesn't the Squad focus its efforts on overwhelmingly "D" districts where they can win a general election, and leave the swing districts to candidates who can win?

      I have no doubt that when Diana DeGette retires, Emily Sirota or that Epps woman will step up as the Squad's candidate for CD-1 and can hold that district. But I wouldn't run one of them in a swing district. It's handing the district to the GOP.

      1. There is no “Squad PAC”. There is a PAC called “ Courage to Change”, which is supported by progressive donors, and contributed to candidates like Colorado’s HD57 Elizabeth Velasco. 

        Velasco won her district by 40 points
        which says that her voters support her and her policies. 
        She beat longtime R obstructionist and mustache model Perry Will. If you’d prefer Will cause he’s conservative, own that. I hear that “ extremes meet in the middle”, or something.

        I see that you truly dislike progressives, especially females, and progressive policies in general, but the voters disagree with you, and they  know what they’re voting for

          1. His votes:  on voting rules, he would have stripped voter rights. 

            He was a big booster of private prisons, including for immigrants. 

            He was against increasing minimum wage or providing paid family leave.  
            In general, obstructed environmental  protection and renewable energy production. He voted against gun limits or limits on marketing e-vapes  to kids. He talks up the need to pay teachers better, but voted against education funding. 
             
            My memory says that Will was part of the Neville caucus that read all bills aloud to slow legislation to a crawl. But I can’t find that, so possibly I’m wrong about that. His op-ed indicates that he sponsored some useful bills. 

             

             

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