The Big Line: 2024

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2024 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: July 2, 2024

PRESIDENT (TO WIN COLORADO)

(D) Joe Biden* (80%)
Remember, this is about who is most likely to carry Colorado; Biden beat Trump by 14 points in 2020.

(R) Donald Trump (20%)
Trump lost Colorado in 5 points in 2016 and 14 points in 2020. He’s not going to make any real effort here in 2024.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (98%)
No Republican is going to win in Denver anytime soon.

(R) Valdamar Archuleta (2%)
Ain’t happening.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
Neguse is safe here.

(R) Marshall Dawson (5%)
This district is too blue and Neguse is too popular.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(D) Adam Frisch (50%)
Frisch is raising a ton of money and should start the General Election battle with better name ID than Hurd.

(R) Jeff Hurd (50%)
Very little is known, politically or personally, about the man we’ve dubbed “Bread Sandwich.”

(L) James Wiley (1%)
Can a Libertarian candidate win this race? Of course not, but Wiley could very well siphon votes from the eventual Republican nominee.

(R) Lauren Boebert (OFF)
Boebert is switching districts in a desperate attempt to remain in Congress.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert (90%)
Boebert easily won the Republican nomination in what is Colorado’s most Republican-heavy congressional district.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (10%)
Calvarese will have some residual name ID from being on the special election ballot, but it won’t matter; district makeup is too difficult to overcome.

(R) Ken Buck* (OFF)
Buck made it official on Nov. 1: He won’t seek re-election in 2024.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank (80%)
Crank hammered Dave Williams in the GOP Primary and should cruise to a General Election victory.

(D) River Gassen (20%)
El Paso County is becoming more moderate every cycle, but it’s not there yet.

(R) Doug Lamborn* (OFF)
Lamborn surprised most observers by announcing he won’t seek re-election in 2024.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Redistricting made CO-06 a very safe Democratic seat for the popular and well-respected Crow. He’ll be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) John Fabbricatore (10%)
Republicans have a slightly better chance here than in CO-01 or CO-02…but not enough of a chance to matter.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen (90%)
Pettersen’s 15-point victory in 2022 has thus far discouraged a serious challenge from Republicans in 2024. The GOP won’t likely even bother with a real fight here.

(R) Sergei Matveyuk (10%)
Like most districts with strong Democratic incumbents in Colorado, this is a lost cause.

(U) Ron Tupa (1%)
Longtime Boulder Democrat is running as an “Unaffiliated” candidate in a district that is nowhere near his current residence. When we understand the point of this, we’ll let you know.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(D) Yadira Caraveo (70%)
Caraveo is doing everything right. She hasn’t missed a single vote in Congress and is crushing her fundraising goals.

(R) Gabe Evans (30%)
Evans earned the nickname “Gabe-ish” after wishy-washy answers to several important questions and has Trumpstink all over him.

(L) Eric Joss (1%)
Libertarian candidate can’t win here, but could very well make the difference in a General Election.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2022 with a 20-15 majority and ended with a 23-12 advantage. It’s hard to see how they could do much better just because of simple math, but Colorado Republicans always find a way to screw up further.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent a record amount of money in 2022 and ended up losing seats. Good luck instilling confidence with donors in 2024.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
Democrats held an unprecedented 41-24 advantage after 2020. Now that majority is 46-19. At this rate, there will be zero Republicans in the State House by 2030 [note: we did not check this math].

REPUBLICANS (5%)
There’s a slim chance Republicans could be back in the majority…in 2034.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2024 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.