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September 08, 2012 01:17 AM UTC

Early Polls Show Signs of Obama Convention Bump

  • 11 Comments
  • by: Mark Mehringer

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

With the 2012 Democratic National Convention having come to a close last night, pollsters like me turn to the public poll results to see what kind of bump in support each candidate has received.  Last week, I noted that the GOP convention failed to give Romney any kind of meaningful boost.  Looking back on the last week of polls (I prefer to rely on high quality ones like the daily tracker conducted by Gallup), that still appears to be the case, though an average of public poll results suggest a minor increase in support for Romney of maybe 1 point.

According to the 7-day tracking poll (http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx) conducted by Gallup, though, there was absolutely no change at all in the race for President during and just after the GOP convention.  It showed the same result for the last week – a 47% Obama / 46% – until last night.

Gallup’s latest results show Obama expanding his lead to 48% O / 45% R.  Those results include several days of pre-Democratic convention polling.



Another poll result from Gallup suggests an even wider lead for Obama is on the way…

The 3-day Gallup tracking poll results for Obama’s approval rating have jumped from a low of 43% approval at the end of the Republican convention, to 52% in their latest measure.

This swing in Obama’s approval ratings clearly suggests that over the next few days, Gallup’s poll results should continue to show growth in Obama’s support.  Other public polls will almost certainly confirm this result.

That said, I’d be surprised if Obama’s support grew much higher than 50%, or if Romney’s fell below 45% for more than a day or two at most.  Even in Obama’s landslide victory of 2008, his popular vote total fell short of 53%.

But a 50% to 45% race is a substantial margin in these highly partisan times, as there are few swing voters out there to shift the race one way or another.

Unlike previous years when candidates waited until the convention to start their campaigns, this year the campaign ads have been running for months.  And the result thus far appears to be a small, consistent Obama lead, both in national polls and state by state totals that estimate where the Electoral College will end up.

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11 thoughts on “Early Polls Show Signs of Obama Convention Bump”

  1. http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/…

    A senior administration official said Friday that it is too early to know whether the report will impact any bounce in the polls that Mr. Obama may have had coming. But he said it doesn’t help that the report of 96,000 new jobs in August came in below what economists had expected.

    “We will see. It is too early to know for sure,” the official told reporters en route to Portsmouth, N.H., where Mr. Obama held his first post-convention rally. “I think it reminds people of what they already know: the economy is healing but too slowly, and there will be some focus that the job production is a little off expectations.”

    But he added, “Even back in January, February, March where we were producing 200,000 plus jobs [per month], the American people weren’t doing celebratory dances.”

    White House senior adviser David Plouffe said Friday that he expects that after polls settle over the coming days, the race will probably wind up about where it was heading into the convention.

    While bloggers drink Kool Aid, even David Plouffle knows better.

    2. The blogger does not argue what you imagine him to:

      That said, I’d be surprised if Obama’s support grew much higher than 50%, or if Romney’s fell below 45% for more than a day or two at most.   …  

      Unlike previous years when candidates waited until the convention to start their campaigns, this year the campaign ads have been running for months.  And the result thus far appears to be a small, consistent Obama lead, both in national polls and state by state totals that estimate where the Electoral College will end up.

      If you occasionally engaged your brain first, before you posted, and thought these things through I am confident that even you could do better.  

  2. There ought to be a bump after an extremely well-run convention that made effective use of prime time: especially that spellbinding Clinton speech, and Julian Castro’s, Joe Biden’s and Michelle Obama’s terrific speeches. Unlike Gore, Obama has swallowed his pride and is making full use of Clinton and his popularity – and his amazing ability to convey a message.

    Plus, Clinton could tell the message in a way Obama never could. Had Obama tried to tell the message himself it would sound like an apology. It was just masterful to have Clinton tell that story.

    The Democratic convention’s stupid “we left God and Jerusalem out” moment and the ridiculous way it was handled on the floor was the only bad note – but it was pretty much inside baseball, just like the GOP’s similar squabbles.

    Meanwhile, the Republican convention was just laughably bad in its presentation and staging. Romney’s speech was rather pathetic in its generalities and his overly pious delivery. He didn’t win over many undecideds – obviously. Even worse was the total disconnect between Ann Romney’s “love” speech and Chris Christie’s “screw love” speech directly after it. Ryan’s speech was well delivered but contained so many glaring lies that even Fox News admitted it was full of baloney. And finally, there was the incredibly amateurish Clint Eastwood “talking chair” moment. It was a convention squandered.

    Not to mention: Todd Akin, Steve King, and Paul Ryan and their “go to hell, raped women” positions.

    Of course ArapaGOP brings up the jobs report, as well he should – but I think more people will focus on the drop in the unemployment rate from 8.3% to 8.1% rather than the inside-baseball (again) reasons for the drop and the below-expected number of new jobs. At least just last month, that’s what the Republicans were all saying. And again, Clinton did a great job of hanging a lot of the blame for slow job growth on the Republicans: how many jobs have the Republicans and Romney created? “Zee-ro!”

  3. I predicted a 5 point bounce for Romney.  However, that was done prior to Romney’s speech and Clint Eastwood monologue.  As for the latter, I absolutely can not believe that the repubs can continually make incredibly stupid mistakes.

  4. Rasmussen showed a couple of point bounce for Romney after the GOP convention.  Reuters/Ipsos and Gallup both registered a big fat zero for Romney’s poll bounce.

    However, all three are tracking a poll bounce for the President following the Democratic convention – probably about 6 points net margin when it all averages out and Gallup’s sample catches up with the rest of the world.

    What does that mean? Well, it’s not good news for Mitt Romney; while the convention bounces are usually transient, the lack of a GOP poll bounce could mean Obama’s convention bounce has a bit more staying power. If President Obama really gains a net 6, then the swing states are going to look bleak for Romney.  His team admitted today that Ohio is trending Obama by “the high single digits”; they’ve pulled advertising from Pennsylvania and Michigan, apparently giving up hope there as well.  That leaves a VERY narrow path to victory for Romney, and having to erase that extra 6 points isn’t going to make that journey easy.

  5. I’m predicting a win for the President of 272 votes which excludes Ohio and Florida in which the President leads, but have been prone to irregularities .This counts Colorado, and Iowa. Many things can happen. I expect gas prices to spike over the next 2 months. Romney has more money on hand, and in 527 Citizens United cash. There are elements of the Democratic Party that I oppose on principle for their current or past support for Hamas. The President isn’t one of them.It’s truly scary to imagine Norquist Nation. Vote a straight ticket.

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