October 09, 2006 09:57 PM UTC

Dan's Predictions for General Election

• 6 Comments
• by: Dan Willis

I have been making election predictions for several years now and this year ColoradoPols provides a place to make them publically. I usually wait until early voting begins, but this year it is expected that 40-50% of the votes cast will be done so by absentee ballot. With this week being the week the first wave of those ballots go out I decided to make my guesses now. There are notes next to the ones I think it appropriate to comment on. These are what I think WILL happen, not what I WANT to happen (mostly).

STATEWIDE:
Governor Bill Ritter (D)
Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D)
Sec. of State Mike Coffman (R)
Attorney General John Suthers (R)

Ref. E Yes
Ref. F Yes
Ref. G Yes
Ref. H Yes
Ref. I Yes
Ref. J No
Ref. K Yes
Amend. 38 Yes (but I hope I’m wrong)
Amend. 39 No
Amend. 40 No
Amend. 41 Yes
Amend. 42 Yes
Amend. 43 No
Amend. 44 No

CONGRESS
CD1 Diana DeGette (D)
CD2 Mark Udall (D)
CD3 John Salazar (D)
CD4 Angie Paccione (D) change; but only if she can get out a new ad addressing either the slams against her or pointing out Musgrave’s voting record. Eidness is helping, but will it be enough?
CD5 Jay Fawcett (D) change; I’m going WAY out on the limb here but there’s too many thing coming together all at the same time, is there enough time left for all to gel though? If ever there was a time a Dem could carry this district, it is this year.
CD6 Tom Tancredo (R) This is one district no Dem should attempt without professional help. Grassroots inexperience can win hearts in several legislative districts, but not CD6.
CD7 Ed Perlmutter (D) change; I don’t think even Ed can screw this up at this point.

EDUCATIONAL SEATS
Board of Ed. CD4 Bob Schafer
Board of Ed. CD7 Karen Middleton
CU Regent At-Large Steve Ludwig
CU Regent CD3 Tillie Bishop

STATE SENATE
SD1 – Greg Brophy (R)
SD2 – Ken Kester (R)
SD5 – Gail Schwartz (D) change; This one will be close. I’m going with Schwartz only because I expect Dem turnout to be higher than GOP due to statewide candidates/issues.
SD6 – Jim Isgar (D)
SD7 – Josh Penry (R)
SD9 – Schulteis (R)
SD11 – John Morse (D) change; the GOP is practically conceding this seat already
SD13 – Scott Renfroe (R)
SD15 – Steve Johnson (R)
SD16 – Joan Fitz-Gerald (D)
SD20 – Moe Keller (D)
SD21 – Betty Boyd (D) This will be a squeaker! Again, I am expecting the statewide part of the ballot to drive out more Dems to vote than GOP.
SD22 – Paula Noonan (D) change; Going out on a ledge with this one. But I’m getting the feel that the moderates will go more for Noonan than Kopp. Gonna be close either way.
SD24 – Lois Trochtrop (D)
SD30 – Ted Harvey (R)
SD32 – Chris Romer (D)

STATE HOUSE
HD1 – Aimee Rathburn (R) change; A probable squeaker. This is a toss-up open district and it feels like the GOP is spending a lot more time, money and energy there than the Dems.
HD4 – Jerry Frangas (D)
HD6 – Andrew Romanoff (D)
HD9 – Alice Borodkin (D)
HD11 – Jack Pommer (D)
HD14 – Kent Lambert (R) Karen Teja is a very strong opponent, I’m just don’t think she (or any Dem) can overcome the voter registration in this district.
HD15 – Bill Cadman (R)
HD17 – Mark Cloer (R)
HD18 – Mike Merrifield (D)
HD19 – Marsha Looper (R) I really don’t have a feel for this race at all. Both candidates are about equally known so I am going to go with the voter registration of the district on this one.
HD20 – Amy Stephens (R)
HD21 – Anna Lord (D) change; If any Dem is going to pick up a House seat in El Paso, it’s gonna be Anna.
HD22 – Jayson Haberkorn (D) change; He has a lot of appeal for the moderate GOP as well as the unaffiliated. Ken Summers was (is?) a pastor at a fundamentalist church. I think most voters are seeing the light that extremism, from either side, is not the way to go.
HD23 – Ramey Johnson (R) change; the Great Battle! Unless, she is attacked again by her own party Ramey should be able to pull this one out, but will still be very close.
HD25 – Rob Witwer (R)
HD26 – Andy Kerr (D)
HD27 – Sara Gagliardi (D) change; she came close last time without much help from the party. Now that they are providing resouces she should be able to do it this time.
HD28 – Jim Kerr (R)
HD29 – Debbie Benefield (D) she’s targeted by the GOP but her opponent is not a very strong choice.
HD30 – Mary Hodge (D)
HD31 – Judy Solano (D)
HD32 – Ed Casso (D)
HD33 – Bill Berens (R)
HD35 – Cherilyn Peniston (D)
HD36 – Morgan Carroll (D)
HD37 – Angela Engel (D) change; I’m agianst the grain on this one. There are too many moderate GOP supporting her for me to ignore.
HD38 – Joe Rice (D) change; this is a case of a very strong Dem against a pretty weak GOP candidate.
HD39 – David Balmer (R) This man is very scary to me. I don’t understand why his district likes him so much, but they seem to.
HD40 – Debbie Stafford (R)
HD41 – Nancy Todd (D)
HD43 – Frank McNulty (R) another race I have no real info about. Again going with voter reg.
HD44 – Mike May (R)
HD45 – Victor Mitchell (R)
HD46 – Dorothy Butcher (D)
HD47 – Buffie McFayden (D)
HD48 – Glenn Vaad (R)
HD49 – Kevin Lundberg (R) another district I don’t understand how they can like this guy, but they do.
HD50 – Dave Owen (R) change; I’m a big fan of Riesberg’s so this is the one I most hope I am wrong on. Owen is an institution in Weld County and that is just too hard to ignore.
HD51 – Don Marostica (R)
HD52 – Bob McCluskey (R)
HD53 – Randy Fischer (D) I am expecting this one to be close. Fischer will benefit from statewide candidates/issues more than Yeldell
HD54 – Dan Wilkensen (R)
HD55 – Bernie Buescher (D) It’ll be close, but I think Bernie will pull it out in the end.
HD56 – Dan Gibbs (D) It’s just not Chlouber’s kinda district anymore. The boundries have changed too much since the last time he was in the House.
HD57 – Al White (R)
HD58 – Ray Rose (R)
HD59 – Ellen Roberts (R) I changed my mind a couple of times before posting this one. In the end, I went with voter reg.
HD60 – Tom Massey (R)
HD62 – Rafael Gallegos (D)
HD63 – Cory Gardner (R) I would have loved it if the Dems would have had a stronger candidate there.
HD64 – Wes McKinley (D)