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January 17, 2013 08:24 AM UTC

Danger Slowly Dawns on (Some) Congressional Republicans

  • 10 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

The Hill–there’s a chance that we’ll be referring back to this story for a long, long time:

Even as Republican officials maintain the GOP majority is safe, several lawmakers and longtime activists warn of far-reaching political ramifications if voters perceive Republicans as botching consequential talks on the debt ceiling, sequestration and a possible government shutdown.

“Majorities are elected to do things, and if they become dysfunctional, the American people will change what the majority is,” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a House deputy majority whip and a former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, told The Hill. [Pols emphasis]

Concerns on the right stem from a public perception that House Republicans were to blame – because of poor leadership strategy and rank-and-file dissent – for bringing the country to the edge of the fiscal cliff late last month.

As this fine reporting by The Hill’s Alexandra Jaffe makes clear, the House GOP majority is torn by two competing and mutually exclusive assumptions. On one side, you have an ideologically rigid conservative wing of the majority, still feeling emboldened after large gains made in 2010 and in redistricting in many states, who are absolutely determined to carry out their ideologically-driven agenda–regardless of public opinion, or short-term consequences for the U.S. economy.

On the other side, you have at least some practically-minded Republicans who realize coming out of 2012 that they have already overplayed their hand.

Conventional wisdom, backed by hard numbers, suggests that Republicans have enjoyed enough success with congressional redistricting in recent decades–though not in Colorado–to create an extremely durable GOP House majority. The simplest evidence for this is the 2012 national popular vote, which re-elected Barack Obama by nearly five million votes, while also re-electing 2010’s “Tea Party” GOP House majority more or less intact.

Democrats need to net 17 districts to take back the House in 2014, widely considered a significant hurdle to overcome.

But the party has identified “30 districts where the [GOP] incumbent [won by] less than 10 percent and an additional 18 districts that we think can perform better” in a non-presidential election year, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) said recently.

And it’s in those districts – where Republicans don’t have a deep base of voters to rely on – that a repeat disaster like the fiscal-cliff fight could matter. [Pols emphasis]

We haven’t seen the list of 2014 Democratic pickup opportunities mentioned above, but we fully expect it to include both Colorado’s Third and Sixth Districts. Although Republican incumbents held these seats in 2012, every election cycle under the current maps will remain hotly competitive in both. If Democrats picked up one or both of those seats in 2014, and that level of success was replicated across the country in other swing district races…

Seriously, folks, what must happen before conventional wisdom is forced to reassess?

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10 thoughts on “Danger Slowly Dawns on (Some) Congressional Republicans”

  1. Coffman’s vote on Obama’s gun control legislation will be a high profile test of whether he realizes he’s in a swing district.  Will he side with the crazies who demand the right to own military style weapons so they can shoot American soldiers/police who they feel are coming to get them?  Or, will he side with the majority of his constituents (assuming they reflect the national polls) who support this set of sensible gun limits?

    What’s it going to be, Mike?

    1. 2% (I believe it was just under) we can expect plenty of money and other help to pour in for a strong candidate. There can’t be many (any?) districts among the 30 with a narrower 2012 margin than that. It’s time for CD6 to make history with its first Dem Rep in 2014.

      And here’s a link to a concisely stated list of 7 key points from Obama’s gun proposals, most of which will be hard to oppose for Rs in just such very competitive districts wishing to maintain a semblance of being within shouting distance of the mainstream. Polls conducted in the weeks since Sandy Hook show just how quickly things can change with support even for the most controversial provision, banning assault weapons, sky rocketing in less than a month. That one won’t make it through but others?

      http://www.thedailybeast.com/a…

      Besides these gun safety issues, imagine how quickly negative public opinion could gain steam if, so soon after the fiscal cliff fiasco and the despicable withholding of hurricane aid for the northeast for which the majority (and popular Governor Christie concerning the latter) blame Republicans, we are faced with economy damaging chaos because of Republican hostage taking attempts on the debt ceiling issue.

      Obama is doing, and hopefully will continue to do, a pretty good job of explaining that the debt has nothing to do with future spending bills but represents paying for bills that congress, including the R House from long before anyone broke the Hastert rule, have already incurred via legislation already passed.

      And I’m sure some of those 30 districts. like many Rs who support sensible gun legislation, must be in the pissed off northeast.  

      1. Now, we just need a strong field of Dem candidates for CD6.  Assuming Coffman rejects Obama’s reasonable proposals on gun safety measures, the presumptive CD6 candidates could get some important media attention.

        And, yes, I am calling for an all-out, no-holds-barred Dem primary battle for CD6.  It’d be the best way to gain name recognition and build a campaign team for the general election (see: Obama 2008).

        Let the CD6 primary begin!

        1. NRA leadership? This from this morning:

          The NRA also signaled a change on the issue Thursday, with President David Keene telling CBS that the association was “generally supportive” of more intensive background checks.

          http://www.businessinsider.com…

          Sounds a little different from yesterday. Not much but any crack, no matter how tiny, represents something significant where the NRA is concerned. Polls scaring them just a little? Afraid a few of their lackeys in congress need a little wiggle room to… you know… remain as their lackeys?  

    2. Very well put. Those against bans on assault weapons or high capacity magazines are driven by fear of the government and police, not fear of criminals.

  2. When you look at who Coffman has hired as his Dist. Director I’d say tax payers are paying for a Campaign Manager and not a District Director.  The writing is on the wall.  That is what Musgrave did, and we all know how that turned out.

    1. The info about the director and how that turned out up in the 4th is very comforting, onebigrepublican, thank you. It’s my mom’s district and she despises Coffman. I’ll be sure to tell her the hopeful news.

  3. Some targets for Democrats in 2014…

    FL-10 – Rep. Daniel Webster 51.8-48.2

    IL-13 – Rep. Rodney Davis 46.6-46.2-7.3

    OH-16 – Rep. Jim Renacci 52.2-47.8

    KY-06 – Rep. Andy Barr 50.6-46.7-2.8

    CO-06 – Rep. Mike Coffman 48.7-45.1-6.3

    FL-02 – Rep. Steve Southerland 52.7-47.3

    IA-03 – Rep. Tom Latham 52.3-43.6

    IA-04 – Rep. Steve King 53.2-44.6

    MI-11 – Rep. Kerry Bentivolio 50.8-44.4

    MO-06 – Rep. Michele Bachmann 50.6-49.4

    MT-AL – Rep. Steve Daines – 53.2-42.9

    NV-03 – Rep. Joe Heck – 50.4-42.8

    (I’d list more, but my web browser and the Washington Post’s election results site aren’t getting along…)

    Yes, Steve King and Michele Bachmann are both on that list. Getting them out of Congress would be a benefit to society in general.

  4. When even Newt Gingrich has warned the GOP against playing bets on the debt ceiling, I think the GOP’s outright failure to go along with a debt ceiling increase will hurt them badly – if as a result the debt ceiling is reached and the U.S. becomes a deadbeat nation.

    Anything else, though, I think depends on what the two parties’ “last best and final offers” are.  

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