President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
December 29, 2023 04:41 PM UTC
10 Comments
This week on the
It's great to hear y'all's take on this very crazy political story.
I agree; she's going to lose the R primary for CD-4. I don't see voters turning out for her from Springfield and Sterling. Sonnenberg is probably the likely nominee out there.
Rural voters in my experience, have a unique way of looking at candidates to represent them in office. When I worked in Democratic politics in Pueblo and in Fort Morgan, my neighbors would say about a candidate, “I know their family. He/she comes from a fine family.”
Urban voters don’t say that, because we don’t know each other’s families, for the most part.
Of the voters in the clown car vying to represent CD4, only Trent Leisy and Jerry Sonnenberg are not carpetbaggers. Only they have roots in the district. Only they have families that are “known”.
Racism plays a part in this,too; immigrant and refugee families may have roots that go back generations to the first sugarbeet harvesters or dairy farmers in the area – but their families are still not “known”. And they generally don’t run for office ( except in Pueblo). Only recently in the last decade has the Democratic Party begun reaching out to these voters. I went to many houses in minority and working class areas where young people eligible to vote said that no one had ever asked them to vote before. They were not invited to the party.
Nobody will argue that Lauren Boebert comes from a “fine family”, nor that she has roots in CD4.
You analysis is spot on. Holtorf will have some name recognition, but the Sonnenberg name is going to be hard to beat on the plains. Trent is going to have a lot of name recognition in the Greeley area and he'll wisely play the carpetbagger card on Bobes. This one is Jerry's to lose.
I get the notions of "carpetbagger" versus "known."
On the other hand, Boebert had $1,434,675.37 cash on hand at the end of September. I'm pretty certain her fundraising outpaced spending in Q4 (we'll see soon), but even half of that money could do a fair amount to get the MAGA voters energized for the primary. She'll be able to use the national platform of her membership in the Freedom Caucus and particularly her ties to Matt Gaetz to avoid being outflanked on the right-wing crazy side.
If members of the Trump family or Trump himself show up and say "vote for Lauren," that's going to be something new and different in a Colorado Republican primary.
If there isn't a consolidation among other possible candidates, I can easily see Boebert getting 30% of the vote and gaining the nomination, while the "conventional" and "establishment" and "local" folks split that vote segment into 4 or 5 other segments among 70%.
Wonder if she can or will use campaign funds for her moving expenses?
I think you’re right on the money with her eeking out a win with 30% with the homegrown other candidates splitting the 70% – you know, the time and tested Doug Lamborn strategy.
I enjoy reading Ali’s posts. He has such a colorful political history in the state and an oft-unique take on R politics. Rarely agree with his analysis, and this time is no exception, but he has some thoughts on his good friend.
There's a more subliminal benefit to Bimbobert's district jump. It's not something the local or national GOP can say out loud but she has significantly improved the chances that the GOP will end up holding CD's 3, 4, and 5 instead of only CD's 4 and 5. It's something they cannot say out loud because that would require them to recognize what a flawed candidate she was for re-election in CD 3.
Behold, Dave Williams' future ……
Mutiny Erupts in a Michigan G.O.P. Overtaken by Chaos – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
At some point, the establishment GOP in Colorado are going to get tired of losing, especially if the Colorado Democratic Party starts pandering to its Elisabeth Epps wing. (The establishment GOP in Colorado = the good folks who got behind Jeff Hurd and drove Bimbobert from Rifle to Julesburg)