February 26, 2024 11:52 AM UTC

Iffy Text Poll Nonetheless Describes Boebert's Narrow Path To Victory

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• by: Colorado Pols

The Courthouse News Service reports on a newly-released poll from Florida-based Kaplan Strategies, run by the former managing partner of the better-known PR firm Gravis Research Doug Kaplan, that shows carpetbagging Republican reprobate Rep. Lauren Boebert with a small plurality of support in the jam-packed race for retiring Rep. Ken Buck’s CO-04 seat:

Kaplan Strategies, based in Kissimmee, Fla., polled 558 registered voters living in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District on Feb. 24, of whom 57% are registered Republicans, and 43% intend to vote as unaffiliated.

Thirty-two percent of people polled said they plan to vote for Lauren Boebert, while 49% indicated they are undecided and 19% chose from the nine other candidates running.

“She is the favorite but vulnerable,” political strategist Doug Kaplan told Courthouse News over the phone…

With almost 50% of polled voters in the race so far undecided, there’s obviously plenty of time and space for one of Boebert’s numerous challengers to consolidate support–which former Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg is hoping to do by locking up a growing list of Republican elder statesmen endorsements (and ex-Sen. Cory Gardner, who is neither an elder nor a statesman). Boebert’s biggest endorsement at the moment is House Speaker Mike Johnson, though as we’ve discussed the relationship between those two appears to be souring as fast as it grew. And despite the large undecided response to this text poll, Boebert appears to have a hard ceiling:

While Boebert proved to be the only candidate ranking with double-digit support, 67% of voters polled said they would not consider voting for her. [Pols emphasis]

Although it’s the first polling in the CO-04 Republican primary to represent itself as scientific, we caution against putting too much stock into these results based on the text-message methodology and 538’s “C” grade of Kaplan’s former firm Gravis Research. With that said, the path for Boebert to victory in the CO-04 GOP primary is accurately depicted in these results: a large field of candidates unable to consolidate and deliver a single opponent who can knock Boebert out, and Boebert taking the nomination with (or less than) the 33% of primary voters who haven’t completely written Boebert off.

To prevent that, the 67% of CO-04 voters who don’t want Boebert representing them need to settle on an alternative–and soon.