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March 28, 2024 03:00 PM UTC

Who Will Win the Republican Vacancy Appointment in CO-04?

  • 16 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

All aboard to [checks map] Hugo, Colorado!

Hugo and its 786 residents will see quite the crowd tonight when a Republican vacancy committee meets to determine who gets to be on the ballot for the June 25 Special Election to fill the remainder of former Rep. Ken Buck’s term in Congress. If you’re not familiar with Hugo — and nobody is — it’s a town located about 100 miles southeast of Denver. Tonight’s GOP meeting is probably the most exciting thing to happen in Hugo since residents thought their drinking water was contaminated with THC in 2016 (it turns out that the water was fine; people were just high on life in Hugo).

Whoever wins tonight’s vacancy will likely appear on the June 25th ballot twice, since that same ballot will open with the Republican Primary race for the right to serve a full two-year term in CO-04. Democrats will hold a virtual vacancy committee on April 1 to nominate a candidate for CO-04, but the demographics of the district mean that Republicans could select a broomstick and it would probably win the Special Election.

Whoever wins the nomination for Republicans tonight should have somewhat of an advantage leading up to the June 25 election; since that person will almost certainly serve in Congress for the last six months of 2024, they should be able to shake loose more money from lobbyists at the very least.

We want to know what readers of Colorado Pols THINK is going to happen tonight. As always with our totally non-scientific polls, we want to know what you believe will happen — think of it like sports betting — and not who you might support or prefer to win.

Neither Lauren Boebert nor Deborah Flora are listed below because they have opted out of the Special Election. There will be more names hoping for a bid tonight than those listed in our poll, but if we can’t name any of them, then chances are pretty good that a vacancy committee won’t know who they are, either. The process is a little more complicated than this, but in a nutshell: The vacancy committee will hold several rounds of voting, with the lowest-performing candidates getting knocked out each round.

Anyway, to the Pols polls!

Who Will Win the Republican Vacancy Committee for CO-04?

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16 thoughts on “Who Will Win the Republican Vacancy Appointment in CO-04?”

  1. Is this taking place at the Hugo Convention Center and Feedlot?

    I voted for Sonnenberg because in the old days, Republicans gave the nomination to whoever’s turn it was to be nominated. (Well, at least at the presidential level until the unfortunate events which occurred in 2016.)

    But given the crazies who are now running the show coupled with a small turnout, anything is possible including a dark horse emerging on the eastern plains (pun intended).

    Interim US Rep Greg “the Watermelon Hunter” Brophy? Or Congressman Mark Hillman? Or that once and future Congresswoman, Marilyn Musgrave? (She can add a six-month stint to her previous tenure to augment her retirement benefits.) Or what is Sweatshop Bob Schaefer doing these days? Oh, the possibilities!

    1. CPR reports Lopez beat Sonnenbert in the 6th round of voting, edging to the win with a 51 to 46 majority.

      Apparently, there was a significant move to "none of the above" BEFORE the "real" election for the seat.

      With the prior history of campaigning, Lopez may provide the best chance for Democrats to "rent" the seat for the rest of the term. 

      1. You're a little overly optimistic.

        In the past 40 plus years, CD-4 has sent a grand total of one Democrat to rent the seat. That was in 2008 when the perfect storm occurred:  a strong candidate at the top of the ticket (Obama), a really hateful and repulsive incumbent (Marilyn Musgrave), a strong and well-funded challenger (Betsy Markey) and district boundaries that included Larimer County (which made the district more competitive). None of those factors will apply on June 25.

        Does Greg Lopez have baggage? Hell, yes. He carries the entire Louis Vutton collection. Will that stop him? Absolutely not.

        In 2016, this country elected a man as president who bragged about raping women. Whatever happened in the Lopez home in 1993 is both ancient history and irrelevant to most voters. Indeed, I dare speculate that there may be some misogynistic voters in CD-4 who will "admire" the way Lopez dealt with his wife.

        In addition, doesn't the perrenial Democratic candidate CD-4 have his own – more recent – case involving alleged DV? 

        My prediction: Greg Lopez gets elected by about 15-20% margin on 6/25. (He won't get Ken Buck’s 30% win because it is a special election with low turnout and he does have "that baggage" weighing him down.) He is sworn in, promptly joins the Freedom Caucus, makes a lot of noise during his six months in DC but accomplishes nothing of importance.

        2. Ordinarily special elections are low turnout, but this one is on the same day as the primary (of course folks get evil mail ballots a couple weeks in advance). I suspect there will be decent publicity about both elections in whatever media is left. So, I sort of think turnout for this CD4 special election will be OK, but I've been wrong once.

    2. He’s pretty par for the course. From the reporting:

      “Lopez wanted to ban mail-in voting despite records showing Lopez voted by mail every time since Colorado gave all voters the option in 2013. Lopez was also arrested in 1993 for assaulting his pregnant wife. Lopez also advocates banning abortion without exceptions for rape, incest, and life or health of the mother. During his run for governor against Gov. Jared Polis who is gay, Lopez said it’s time Colorado has ‘a real First Lady again.'”

      They’re keeping it as classy as always.

      1. A real First Lady?

        Greg Lopez' definition of a "real First Lady" is barefoot, pregnant and covered with black and blue marks.

        WARNING LABEL TO LA POMPOSA:  This is not a joke about domestic violence. It is a comment about how low the modern GOP has sunk to nominate someone like this.

        1. …or as HoBo described him on Twitter this morning:

          Greg stepped up with a servant heart and a leadership mindset with accountability being his driving force.

  6. This is a clear sign that Sonnenberg is sunk. He may present a slightly greater threat to Boebert than Don Coram did, but if he couldn’t beat these minnows and guppies despite having the support of the local establishment to give him a slight leg up in the primary, he has zero chance against Boebert who has a ton of campaign money, is well-known (infamously but popularly with the MAGA base), and most importantly, has Trump’s endorsement which is really the only thing that matters to Republican primary voters. Boebert is going to end up winning by a pretty big margin and Colorado and America will never be rid of her (until she finds another gig, probably on TV, that pays her even better and makes her even more famous while requiring even less work).

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