UPDATE: There is a lot of information to be gleaned, including between the lines, from this rundown via POLITICO’s “Playbook”.
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An exclusive report from Jeff Mason at Reuters today quotes Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper saying that President Joe Biden, who was forced off the campaign trail yesterday after testing positive for COVID-19, is close to a decision on whether to remain in the 2024 presidential race after weeks of uncertainty and dramatic events elsewhere continue to cloud Biden’s prospects, and despite Biden’s insistence up until this week that all systems were go:
U.S. President Joe Biden is working towards a decision on whether to stay in the presidential race that is good for the country, Senator John Hickenlooper told Reuters, noting sadness among Democrats about the president while stopping short of saying he should step aside…
“Joe Biden has always put the country first. He’s done what’s best for America…I think he’ll keep doing so,” Hickenlooper said in a telephone interview late Wednesday. “He’s working towards that.”
Asked about Biden potentially stepping aside, Hickenlooper said: “That’s his decision to make, but certainly there’s more and more indications that that would be in the best interests of the country, I think.”
Since the June 27th presidential debate between ex-President Donald Trump and Biden, voters have been subjected to an almost daily emotional roller coaster of attempts by Biden to overcome the doubt created by his performance, interrupted by more evidence of dissent in the Democratic ranks over whether Biden should remain in the race. An AP poll released yesterday shows fully 65% of Democrats believe Biden should withdraw, the clearest sign yet that Biden’s attempts to restore confidence on the stump and in frequent interviews since the debate have not been successful. At the same time, polling of the presidential head-to-head matchup since the debate has showed a smaller drop in support for Biden than alarmed critics and pundits feared. Similarly, polling in the presidential race does not appear to have moved meaningfully after the assassination attempt against Trump last weekend, another sign voters’ opinions are so set in stone that no externality can change them.
Unfortunately for Biden, those narrow polls mostly have him coming up short, and at this point there is no denying that the crisis of confidence among Democrats is real. A perceived need for Biden to dramatically reengage in the weeks after the debate has very clearly not been met in the minds of a large majority of Democratic voters. The specter of a second Trump administration fueled by the dystopian plot laid out in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 has filled Democrats with dread. Any change in circumstance that could help ensure Trump isn’t given another once-unthinkable four years as President feels welcome.
And that is why Democrats are at this incredibly difficult moment, after four historically successful years of Joe Biden as President.
“I don’t think a lot of people realize how beloved Joe Biden is and what sorrow and anguish people feel that he might not be the candidate. Even people who feel that he should not be the candidate feel a great sense of loss,” Hickenlooper said. [Pols emphasis]
“He’s been one of the greatest presidents, perhaps the greatest president of my lifetime.”
But Hickenlooper said feedback from his constituents in Colorado – not donors, he said, and not insiders – showed overwhelmingly that average Democratic voters wanted Biden to step aside.
In the end, it’s a decision that only Biden as the Democratic nominee affirmed by millions of Democratic primary voters can make. But whatever happens next, history will note that it was Colorado Democratic leaders, from Sen. Michael Bennet to Reps. Brittany Pettersen and most recently Jason Crow, who led the campaign for this dramatic course change–sincerely believing it was the only option to ensure the universally shared goal of keeping Trump from returning to the White House.
That’s where we’re at as of this writing. We’ll update when we know more, and as always try to do no harm until then.
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My political instincts are crap, but is part of the calculation whether Biden gets to name his replacement? If he withdraws his candidacy, it creates a void and potential chaos. If it is a done deal that Harris replaces him on the ballot, will the rest of the party fall in line? Is Biden willing to resign as president, give Harris the job, if it would help her get elected?
Hmm, that’s actually not a half-bad solution. A lot of ambitious Dems would be frustrated, and hard to corral. Of course Harris (or any alternative) would be exposed to a blowtorch of media deconstruction. Alas, we Dems are not built to just fall in line, and today’s media is fascinated by shiny new objects and false equivalences in the name of “Balance”.
But with Harris on the job, and at the top of the ticket, the opportunity to create a strong, balanced ticket with a savvy VP choice could be transformational.
Can you imagine if Biden resigns, and Harris appoints Michelle Obama as her VP? Not gonna happen, but we can dream.
As others have noted, Harris is the only one ( besides Biden) who can legally access the funds raised for the Biden / Harris ticket.
$264 million says Harris is the nominee if Biden withdraws. Harris haters ( all of whom cite other people's prejudices as the reason she can't win), suck it up!
I'd actually like to see the order reversed – Harris at the top of the ticket – relatively young, experienced, charismatic speaker – and Biden as the elder statesman / diplomat, which was essentially the role he played under Obama. If Biden then becomes unable to serve due to the effects of long Covid or ???, Hakeem Jeffries steps in to fill the Veep responsibilities. Actually, I don't know if that's how veep slots work. Any precedent for a vacant veepage?
$264 million AND the Congressional Black Caucus say Harris is the nominee. Remember how, in 2020, we praised black women for saving the country? There would be no faster way to lose this election than to skip over the qualified African-American female candidate.
kwtree — while I’m not an election specialist, here is my take on the 25th amendment process: If Biden resigned, and Harris became president, just like when Nixon resigned and Ford took over as president (after Agnew was forced out), that VP office vacancy was filled by Nelson Rockefeller. Both times, the VP had to be confirmed by both houses of congress (GLWT).
So, Harris would be president sans VP. However, she could name anyone she wanted to join her ticket to campaign to become VP if they beat the Trump/Turd ticket.
The whole situation is snowballing now. I am thinking Biden is out in two weeks or less. I wish whatever ailment, or just old age, wouldn't do this to him, but it is a fact. You can also bet on it that Trump is going to say some of the most misogynistic, sexist and mean spirited things about Harris if she's at the top of the ticket (I think she will be). She's can fend her own, but she's walking into the buzz saw.
I am relieved to see the rabid panic on the part of many Democrats over Uncle Joes’ age is tempering somewhat. As I have said from the beginning…
Respect the process.
We are not Republicans.
The immense effort to overthrow the candidate with the most delegates looks suspiciously like it was coordinated by Republicans. Tell them to fuck off Joe. Tonight might be Trump's highwater mark. There are some bad days ahead for the dude including sentencing in September for multiple felony convictions. That ought to be more relevant to dropping out.
I agree with your assessment. The abortion battle within the Republican party is about to explode. For that wing of the party who will settle for nothing less than a nationwide ban on abortion, the Trump championed "leave it to the states" plan is unacceptable. A firestorm is brewing.
I am beginning to believe the motive for the Trump shooter was an increasingly popular idea among the most extreme Christian zealots that the Orange Jesus is leading them into perdition. He was trying to save MAGA from Trump…as weird as that sounds.