Thursday Open Thread

5 thoughts on “Thursday Open Thread”

1. Crypto Bros as Prey. Brad DeLong:

   Crytogrifts: Elon Musk appears to believe that if he gives Trump money for his campaign now, Trump will not impound and sequester Teslas green Pigouvian–subsidy money next year if he wins the presidency. Marc Andreesen and Ben Horowitz believe that if they give money and fundraise for Trump now, Trump will do favors for the cryptogrifter industry next year. They seem to think that Trump is relational—establish a relationship with him, and you will then do each other favors. But that is not how Trump works. Trump is transactional, not relational. Give Trump money now, and he will take it and say thank you. Ask for a favor in return at some time in the future, and he will ask you: “what’s in this for me?” If you have a reputation as someone who keeps their promises, you might induce him to do you a favor in return for your making him a promise he believes. But the reverse does not work because Trump's word simply is not good. This is an example of a broader principle: For some reason, plutocrats often think kleptocrats are their friends and allies. But that is not the case. Kleptocrats regard plutocrats as their prey:

   Elizabeth Lopatto: The moral bankruptcy of Marc Andreessen & Ben Horowitz: ‘Marc Andreesen and [Ben] Horowitz[‘s]… podcast… is an extraordinary performance…. Andreessen concedes that their major problems with President Joe Biden—the ones that led them to support Trump—are what most voters would consider “subsidiary” issues. “It doesn’t have anything to do with the big issues that people care about”…. These subsidiary issues take precedence for Andreessen and Horowitz over, say, mass deportations and Project 2025’s attempt to end no-fault divorce… personal liberty—abortion, the rights of gay and trans people, and possibly democracy itself—in favor of crypto, AI, and a tax policy they like better. For Horowitz, “probably the most emotional topic” is crypto—a16z started a $4.5 billion crypto fund in 2022, and the pair believe that the Biden administration has been deeply unfair to crypto. In Horowitz’s view, the Biden administration “basically subverted the rule of law to attack the crypto industry”… <https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/24/24204706/marc-andreessen-ben-horowitz-a16z-trump-donations>

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   1. The "tech oligarch" angle of this election cycle has been interesting to me. Even though Musk lost a ton of money and/or value on Twitter, my feed has shifted dramatically rightward politically, and I'm sure that's the same for plenty of others. The financial sacrifice might work out in practice sort of like an in-kind contribution to the Orange One. Very frequently the first tweet I see in the morning is from Musk himself, and I never used to see him on Twitter at all until he bought it.

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2. Great opinion piece this morning in the Denver Post.  Between Kamala Harris, the former prosecutor, and JD Vance's own words before he joined the Cult, Trump's degenerate, predatory behavior will get the full exposure it deserves.

   When Harris calls Trump a predator, voters will listen

   Trump, of course, has lived a predatory life. He used his vast inherited wealth to cheat small contractors who couldn’t afford to outlast his tactical delays in the legal system.

   He set up a bogus university to defraud students. He took tax-deductible donations to his foundation and spent them on himself. And he has been accused of attacking many women over the years.

   As one political observer tweeted in October 2016, “What percentage of the American population has @realDonaldTrump sexually assaulted?”

   That observer was Trump’s current running mate, JD Vance, who, of course, stepped into the role after Trump sicced a violent mob on his last running mate. Like everyone else with the capacity to recognize moral degeneracy, Vance knew, and still knows, that Trump is a sexual predator. Discussing one victim’s claims against Trump on MSNBC in 2016, Vance said, “At a fundamental level, this is sort of a ‘he said, she said,’ right? And at the end of the day, do you believe Donald Trump, who always tells the truth? Just kidding,” Vance said.

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3. It's like I predicted last Sunday …..

   She may not be a total game changer but she stops the hemorrhaghing.

   Harris Narrows Gap Against Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

   Food for thought:  since she comes closer (within 1%) of Trump amongst "Likely Voters," but only within 2% amongst all "Registered Voters," maybe we stop beating the bushes for low-information, less-likely voters and focus on turnout amongst the more engaged and enlightened parts of the electorate.

    

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   1. Yes, winning an election always about goosing the turnout – YOUR turnout. Persuasion is a fool’s game.

      Identify the demographics that support you and make sure they get out to vote. For Kamala Harris, that means women and younger people. The potential of the youth vote is that turnout is so low, there is a lot of upside. The value of the women vote is that they are so pissed off, voting is existential.

      Turnout explains Trump’s strategy of doubling down on his MAGA core. He needs the most dedicated to actually vote, which means he needs them angry and pissed. Conversely he needs to suppress over-all voting so that his smaller but more dedicated pool is sufficient.

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