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August 14, 2024 10:35 AM UTC

Kamalamentum Continues with New Poll Numbers and Great Economic News

  • 9 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

It’s hard to believe that it hasn’t even been a month since President Joe Biden decided to drop his re-election campaign and Vice President Kamala Harris quickly took over as the new Democratic nominee for President. As we’ve noted in this space, the Harris candidacy has changed EVERYTHING about the 2024 election, attracting more than a million new donors and injecting fresh enthusiasm and hope into the hearts and minds of all anti-Donald Trump voters.

As new polling for the Swing State Project shows, Harris has completely flipped the script on Trump and Republicans:

Just last week, the Cook Political Report changed its ratings in three key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — from a “Leans Republican” designation to a true “Toss Up” category. As Aaron Blake explains today for The Washington Post, Harris may even be moving ahead of Trump with voters concerned about the economy:

For his entire aborted 2024 reelection campaign, no issues threatened to hamstring President Joe Biden quite as much as the economy and immigration.

The economy is almost always voters’ top issue, and views of Biden’s handling of it were routinely way underwater. Immigration is generally less important in voters’ minds, but a border crisis pushed Biden’s numbers on the issue to historically low levels — to the point where three-fourths of independents and large numbers of Democrats disapproved. One poll early this year showed Americans preferred Donald Trump over Biden on immigration by more than 30 points…

…A new poll this week piqued more than a few people’s interest. It came from the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, and it showed that about as many Americans preferred Harris on the economy (42 percent) as preferred Trump (41 percent). Such a finding was previously unthinkable, after many months of the economy dogging Biden. [Pols emphasis]

And there’s even more good news today for Democrats on the economy. From a separate story via The Washington Post:

Inflation dropped in July to its lowest level in three years on an annual basis, setting up the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon to take pressure off the economy.

The snapshot was the clearest indication yet that inflation is heading back to normal levels from 40-year highs — without a recession. Central bankers won’t be caught celebrating, scarred by years of unexpected twists that repeatedly upended the Fed’s inflation fight. But officials will close out the summer with the surest sense yet that it’s time to loosen up on the economic brakes, possibly starting next month.

As The New York Times continues, the new inflation numbers have Democrats surging with excitement:

After more than two years of being politically battered over soaring prices, Wednesday’s inflation report left many Democrats feeling victorious.

Consumer prices rose 2.9 percent in the year through July, falling below 3 percent for the first time since 2021. The report keeps the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next month, a move that could lift economic sentiment in the United States ahead of the November election.

“We’ve won the battle against inflation,” Bharat Ramamurti, former deputy director of the National Economic Council, wrote on X. “It’s time for the Fed to begin cutting rates.”

Congressional Democrats were also using the report to push the Fed to cut aggressively.

“Inflation is down,” Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, the chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, said in a news release. “The price of gas or a new car have fallen over the last year. And many families can now breathe a bit easier. Now, we need to make sure that this relief is reaching all Americans.”

Yes, we are still two months away from ballots arriving in the hands of many voters.

Yes, things could change.

Yes, turnout will be very important.

But it’s okay to take a moment and marvel at just how drastically the 2024 Presidential campaign has changed in less than a month. Whose shoes would you rather be wearing today?

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9 thoughts on “Kamalamentum Continues with New Poll Numbers and Great Economic News”

  1. Crypt Keeper of the 1980s. Via Mahablog.

    Regarding Hannibal Lecter, see this piece in the Washington Post. Tim O’Brien, a Trump biographer, says that Trump is the “crypt keeper for the 1980s,” which was “the high point of his life until he became president.” If you pay attention you notice that Trump’s style and cultural references are nearly all from the 1980s,

    “Every time he opens the door, people spill out from the 1980s, whether it’s Roger Stone or Rudy Giuliani, fashion from the ’80s spills out, whether it’s his monochrome tie or suits that invariably are made in two or three different colors … his office decor is still in the 1980s,” he [Tim O’Brien] said. “None of his tastes have been updated in decades.”

    The novel The Silence of the Lambs was published in 1987.

    The Lecter mentions are a way for Trump to continue “upping the ante” from his previous descriptions of migrants, said Gwenda Blair, another Trump biographer. It’s “not just criminals, rapists, which Trump has already used starting in 2015 … but let’s get cannibal in the mix.”

    It’s kind of rich for Trump to be warning people about criminals and rapists, anyway, isn’t it? So we do need to up the ante to cannibals. That’s one thing I can’t say Trump is guilty of himself.

    But the point is that Trump is not a flexible person. He doesn’t do pivots. Nor is he rational. He operates out of his id, which is a complicated and dark place. His instincts as a promoter and con man often serve him well, until they don’t. 

  3. In more economics news, the widely touted Trump "economics" speech in North Carolina happened.

    Headlines included

    • AP – Trump’s campaign called it an economic address. He made big promises but mostly veered off topic
    • WSJ – New Tariffs—and Other Takeaways From Trump’s Economic Speech  —

    • CNBC – Trump packs economic speech with personal attacks on Harris [ including my favorite … "Trump also proposed a handful of economic measures that he promised to enact if he is returned to the White House in November. Among them was a promise that he would slash energy costs “in half” within 18 months of taking office. He did not offer any details of how he might do this."  maybe Mexico will pay for it?

    • CNN – Daniel Dale fact-checks Trump’s economy speech

    1. Yes, the AP story I just read definitely has adopted a new narrative, noting how often Trump wandered off the topics displayed on his Teleprompter in order to launch into his various grievances and spew invective towards Kamala.

      Yet throughout his speech, Trump ping-ponged between his prepared remarks and familiar attacks — deviating from the teleprompter in the middle of explaining a new economic promise when something triggered another thought. He ticked through prepared remarks crisply and quickly. The rest was his more wide-ranging style, punctuated with hand gestures and hyperbole.

      Attempts by Trump's team to "handle" him so far have limited success.

      Trump aides have long thought that an inflationary economy was an albatross for Democrats this year. But the event in Asheville only amplifies questions about whether Trump can effectively make it a centerpiece of his matchup against Harris.

      Between Trump's propensity to dwell on relitigating the past election, and the fact that inflation has been for the last year solidly under control, the economy isn't going to be the killer issue the GOP was hoping for.

       

  4. Kamala/Walz is now up 3 pts nationally at the Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver's polling average with special sauce.)

    Multiple battleground states have moved dramatically in the Democratic direction, including close races in North Carolina and Georgia.

    Kamala is running on values.

    The press keeps asking for Kamal's policy goals. This is really weird as they don't seem to ask that of Republicans. Remember in 2016, the Republican Party did not even have a platform; it was "whatever Trump wants."

    How about the press doing a Compare-and-Contrast of Biden Policies and the Project 2025?

  5. Swing State Senate Races also looking better. via WaPo.

    Well, we got a big new set of Senate polls from the Cook Political Report on Thursday, and they suggest the Democrats got a significant bump there, too.

    Democrats improved their margins by an average of four points across five key Senate races: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And they now lead in each race by at least seven points.

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