September 23, 2024 11:34 AM UTC

The Big Line 2024: Ballot Measures

• 15 Comments
• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: We’ve redone the graphic below to include the official titles of each of the (now) seven citizen measures that will appear on the General Election Ballot. We’ve also updated the odds as we see them.

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[Original Post: 8/27/24]

The Big Line has been a staple on Colorado Pols since the site’s founding in 2004. Providing our assessment of political races has always been one of our most popular features.

What we have NOT done before, however, is sketch out a “Big Line” for ballot measures.

Until today.

Before we get to our assessment of the likelihood of each “citizen” initiative of passing in November, we should first start with a primer. As you peruse the chart below, remember that a “Constitutional” initiative requires at least 55% of the vote in order to pass; a “Statutory” measure is approved with one vote more than 50% of the total. We’ll run through the “referred measures” at the end.

And now, on to the Ballot Measure Big Line.

NOTE: The percentages below represent our best guess at the likelihood of each particular outcome; if an initiative is listed as “YES: 25%,” that means we think there is a 25% chance of “YES” winning on Election Night; it does NOT mean that we think said initiative will claim 25% of the vote in November. 

AMENDMENT 79 (Guarantee Abortion Rights)
YES: 90%
NO: 10%
Colorado voters have proved over the years that this is a very pro-choice state. Initiative 89 was well-crafted, the campaign is well-organized and well-funded. All of which means, well, that this is an easy projection — even though it needs 55% of the vote to pass.

AMENDMENT 80 (School Choice in Education)
YES: 50%
NO: 50%
This vouchers measure in disguise remains a true tossup for a few reasons: 1) There doesn’t appear to be a robust campaign either for or against this proposal; and 2) The ballot language is both understandable and confusing.

The text is clear in asking voters to create a “Constitutional” right to school choice (read: vouchers), but it doesn’t explain what that means from a policy perspective. Like…what happens next? This measure doesn’t really do anything. Initiative 138 also needs 55% to pass; the higher threshold could make it tough to attract enough support given that there will be some percentage of voters who won’t trust voting “YES” because it’s not clear what would happen as a result.

PROPOSITION 127 (Prohibit Trophy Hunting)
YES: 60%
NO: 40%
This measure doesn’t seem to have any strong opposition, and the ballot language is pretty straightforward. This should pass easily.

PROPOSITION 128 (Concerning Eligibility for Parole)
YES: 60%
NO: 40%
It’s not clear that there is much of an organized campaign either for or against this initiative. The ballot language is fairly clear, however, and we would guess that average voters would be inclined to keep violent offenders behind bars as long as possible.

PROPOSITION 129 (Qualifications for Veterinary Professionals)
YES: 55%
NO: 45%
For the average, slightly-informed voter, a quick read of the text probably makes this seem perfectly reasonable, and there isn’t much money being spent on either side.

PROPOSITION 130 (Funding for Law Enforcement)
YES: 52%
NO: 48%
This is one of the more politically-confusing measures (assuming it qualifies for the ballot), because it’s not obvious what Advance Colorado is really trying to accomplish here. Some voters may balk at the $350 million price tag, but our guess is that more voters agree with the text on increasing funding for law enforcement training and victim services.

PROPOSITION 131 (Ranked Voting, Open Primaries)
YES: 60%
NO: 40%
The broader idea here is something that is generally popular: Giving voters better options in a General Election with an “open primary” process that puts up to four candidates on a General Election ballot, regardless of political party. The campaign behind Prop. 131 is well-funded and well-organized, and picking up the endorsement of Gov. Jared Polis certainly helps.

AMENDMENT G (Tax Exemptions for Veterans)
YES: 70%
NO: 30%
This sort of thing usually passes without much argument.

AMENDMENT H (Judicial Discipline Procedures)
YES: 60%
NO: 40%
There’s no obvious reason for any voter to be seriously opposed to this idea.

AMENDMENT I (Constitutional Bail Exemption for First Degree Murder)
YES: 50%
NO: 50%
This measure is tough to call. A quick reading probably generates a ‘NO’ vote, because “bail exemption” and “murder” don’t go together very well. But if you look closer, this makes sense.

AMENDMENT J (Repealing Ban on Same Sex Marriage)
YES: 60%
NO: 40%
Colorado voters have long displayed their support for same sex marriage. This should pass.

AMENDMENT K (Modify Constitutional Election Deadlines)
YES: 55%
NO: 45%
This is a slight favorite to pass only because it’s drab and voters probably won’t care either way.

PROPOSITION JJ (Retain Additional Sports Betting Tax Revenues)
YES: 60%
NO: 40%
Legalizing sports gambling passed fairly easily in 2019. The only real losers here are casinos, and voters aren’t likely to care about that.

PROPOSITION KK (Firearms and Ammunition Excise Tax)
YES: 55%
NO: 45%
This is the only referred measure to have two defined campaign committees battling it out. We’d guess the current Colorado electorate is more inclined to believe gun and ammunition dealers should pay a slightly higher tax rate in order to fund gun prevention and mental health programs.