It’s that time in the election cycle when we ask readers of Colorado Pols about what’s going to happen when the votes are tallied.
As we’ve noted many times, our readers have been oddly accurate in predicting outcomes over the years; while these polls are completely unscientific, we think the results are still relevant. By posting a new poll every week, we can also track how perceptions might be shifting.
As always, we want to know WHAT YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN, not who you support or whom you might prefer on a given question. Think of it like placing a bet; if you were going to bet everything you own on one outcome, which would you choose?
Let’s start numerically in CO-03, where Democrat Adam Frisch (left) is battling Republican Jeff “Bread Sandwich” Hurd for the open seat being vacated by Rep. Lauren Boebert’s magic carpetbagging ride to CO-04.
Now let’s head over to CO-08, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo is trying to hold off Republican Gabe-ish Evans.
We’ll keep track of these results and conduct a new poll every week until Election Day.
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Maybe it's because I don't live west of the divide but I think Frisch did such a good job at "anyone but Boebert" that Hurd fits the description. Then again I have not seen any of the ads or "Hurd" the drumbeat.
Caraveo spent much of her time in Congress chasing invisible boogymen of crime and drugs. The question will be if any of it translates into cross over votes. If voters don't reward her with a second term it should be a sign to Democrats.
Pro-Frisch ads are running in the Denver TV market. I don't watch a lot of TV, but I don't quickly recall seeing Hurd ads. I think Frisch will pull out a narrow win simply because he has been working the District since 2022 and Hurd is a relative unknown (disclosure: I've made several donations this year to the Frisch campaign).
In the 8th, I think people had better get used to hearing about Representative Evans. I've seen ads from both sides. Could be wrong, but Caraveo's ad team appears to have fallen into the same trap as Mark Udall's re-election campaign in 2014; all abortion most of the time. I'm not seeing enough on what she's done for the border. As for fentanyl, my opinion won't be popular with some of you. But I do believe that nobody is forced to do street drugs.
Frisch: The Denver TV ads must have brought in money but it won't get much votes.
Hurd: Unknown maybe but known (R)
Caraveo: https://www.instagram.com/caraveoforcongress/reel/C_3Z41ZPbm-/
Building out a moderate candidate you couldn't ask for a better person to fill that role than her. However; getting the Democrats base to turn out plus swing independent voters it just might not be the role of a moderate. Excite the base and play pied piper just might have been what is the sauce.
Evans: JESUS FEAR ARGH!
My husband and I are registered Democrats but our renter is an independent. We collected all his mailings totalling 17 mail pieces. (Contrast my husband and I only received two pieces)
Of those mail pieces 5 were from the Caraveo campaign 12 from the Evens campaign. Both campaigns seeming split evenly between attacks and candidates positives.
Though Evans attacks ring as dumb to us as white men in our 40s living relatively close to Denver… I'm sure it would be terrifying if I was a 40 year old white man in Weld county. After all Fentanyl is in every community with a population over 2 and soon to be 1 and that guy needs to have his immigration status checked!
Regarding your comment on street drugs… that kid from RoboCop 2. In a way CD-8 election is a test “Is RoboCop a satire? YES or Evans
Regarding movies, I did see Robo Cop, the original, on TV. Only vaguely remember that there was a sequel. As an aside, I also seldom go to movies.
Film Context: Detroit's poor financial condition results in OCP able to foreclose and take the city private. A child drug lord offers a life line in exchange for a favorable drug war.
Mayor: Why do people do crimes? Why? Drugs. People do drugs.
Hob: Because they want drugs…
The kind that cost too much. Nuke gives high quality at a cheap price. If you get off our backs, we'll make it cheaper. And safer. We don't shove our shit down anybody's throat. And we don't advertise it like they do with cigarettes or booze. So leave us alone…and anybody who wants it gets it. So no more crimes. You get to be the mayor who cleaned up Detroit!
Mayor: (swallow) He’s got a point. Don’t you think he’s got a point?