The Big Line: 2014

*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.
 

U.S. SENATE
(D) Mark Udall* (60%)
Polls are all over the place, and all may be inaccurate anyway. Dems quietly growing more confident by the day.

(R) Cory Gardner* (40%)↓
Gardner momentum is as authentic as the McRib sandwich. If Gardner were really ahead, these fact-free attack ads wouldn't be on the air.

GOVERNOR
(D) John Hickenlooper* (68%)↑
Momentum? Perhaps, but it's more likely the case that Hickenlooper has always been comfortably ahead.

(R) Bob Beauprez* (32%)↓
Candidates who feel good about their position in the race don't resort to sleazy attack ads that are torn apart by editorial boards.

ATTORNEY GENERAL
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (60%)↑
If downballot polling is accurate, Coffman is in good shape with one week left.

(D) Don Quick* (40%)↓
Hard to tell if a better campaign would have made a difference; in retrospect, this may have been unwinnable for Quick.

STATE TREASURER
(R) Walker Stapleton* (51%)↓
This is what panic looks like. Stapleton in free-fall, flailing desperately against ad about his lax work habits.

(D) Betsy Markey* (49%)↑
How quickly things can change in politics. Take one good ad, combine with poor response from opponent, and you have the makings of an upset.
 

SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)↑
All things being equal, Neguse is a shoo-in here. But with chaos at the top of the ticket, this is not in Neguse's control.

(R) Wayne Williams* (50%)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. Really bad at debates. There's no good reason that Williams should win, but he might anyway.
 

CD-1 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.

CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Not going to lose a General Election in 2014. Maybe longer.

CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (80%)↑
Tipton has been careful not to step on any land mines, so he should skip to another term.

(D) Abel Tapia* (20%)↓
Too little, too late, and too much else going on around him to get a foothold.
 

CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Buck could have stopped campaigning a month ago and still won this race. The numbers are too good.

(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Democrats wouldn't have much of a shot here anyway, but Meyers isn't quite a household name in CD-4.

CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)↓
Lamborn is in campaign-imposed exile because he is the biggest threat to his own re-election.

(D) Irv Halter* (30%)↑
Halter would beat Lamborn at anything, anywhere, anytime…except maybe in GOP-heavy district like CO-5.
 

CD-6 (AURORA)
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (50%)
Romanoff seems to be a slight favorite from our vantage point, but this is truly too close to call.

(R) Mike Coffman* (50%)
The end seems very real for a flustered, frustrated Coffman; still, another term wouldn't be a complete surprise.
 

CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (85%)↑
Perlmutter has beaten much tougher opponents in more difficult election cycles.

(R) Don Ytterberg* (15%)↓
Um, yeah, no.
 

STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (55%)↑
Democrats have a lot of seats to defend, but each competitive race looks favorable.

REPUBLICANS (45%)↓
Three of the most competitive Senate seats are in Jefferson County. Bad news for GOP.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (75%)↑
Democrats have better candidates, better campaigns, and better fundraising efforts across the board.

REPUBLICANS (25%)↓
Republican House Majority effort has been a disaster. We're guessing this is the last time Rep. Libby Szabo is put in charge of anything.

The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.