September 19, 2012 06:15 PM UTC

What's Summers' Strategy in SD-22?

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• by: Colorado Pols

In mid-August, State Representative Andy Kerr for the first time surpassed Republican opponent Ken Summers in funds raised, spent, and on hand in the SD-22 race. In the intervening period, Kerr has kept the pressure on, raising just under $48,000 since July 27th. To put that figure in perspective, that means Kerr has hauled in upwards of $900 a day over the past month and a half.

Summers, meanwhile, raised just over $24,000 in the same period, a rate of about $470 day. That’s right. Kerr has outraised his opponent by a 2-1 margin.

Kerr has lost the lead in cash-on-hand, but that’s not surprising with election day fewer than 50 days away. Since late July, the Democrat has spent just over $44,000, compared to $4,900 for Summers. It’s not as if Kerr is wasting any money, however: the lion’s share of his expenses relate to direct mail costs. Kerr is spending money to connect with voters. More importantly, he’s bringing in more than enough to offset his high burn rate.

Summers, on the other hand, has spent a relatively paltry few thousand on brochures, lapel pins, stamps, and the consulting services of a “field director.”

The SD-22 race is incredibly competitive on paper. Two equally-qualified, incumbent state representatives are running against each other in a district with functionally equal registration numbers. Because neither candidate enjoys a natural advantage, this is one of those campaigns where strategy will or lose the race.

Which begs the question: is Ken Summers incompetent? It bears repeating: election day is now less than two months away. Summers needed to use the summer to engage in substantive voter contact by spending money on direct mail and walk pieces. Ballots will start arriving in mailboxes in a month, at most. Summers hasn’t even started to connect with most of the district, and a month is far too little time to whittle away at Kerr’s lead. Summers has been out walking, but there’s no way he’ll have canvassed as many homes as Kerr’s mail pieces, not to mention the Democrat’s strong and sustained volunteer field efforts. It wouldn’t make a difference if Summers were to spend all $82,000 in his campaign coffers on outreach at this point. Because he hasn’t even made a first impression on many of the district’s voters, saturating SD-22 now won’t boost his profile meaningfully.

Summers may be planning for a late-campaign television blitz. He’s got plenty for a cable advertisement — he’ll only after to buy in one zone — but, effective as TV may be, there are so many ads inundating sets right now that Summers’ spots for a local seat may be drowned out by the noise from the presidential race. Television in a local campaign is most powerful when paired with a robust field and mail effort; voters hear your name on the air and then remember you when they’re contacted again. Summers hasn’t raised enough to afford both television and direct mail on his own, however.

A few conclusions can be drawn from Summers’ strategy at this juncture. The Republican may have good reason to believe that independent expenditure groups will swoop in and dramatically supplement his campaign efforts at the last minute. He also might have purchased direct mail services and is waiting to pay his bill and report those expenditures until he has a better feel for how much will have to come out of his coffers.

Or, perhaps, Summers just doesn’t have the desire, know-how, or tenacity to run the campaign he needs to in order to win this seat. Although Summers has never had a real opponent before, it’s unlikely Republicans would allow him to run such an abysmal race.

But it’s certainly not impossible.

Have you received a mail or walk piece from the Kerr or Summers campaign? E-mail us: info(at)jeffcopols.com.