President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Kamala Harris

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) V. Archuleta

98%

2%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Marshall Dawson

95%

5%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

50%

50%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(D) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank

(D) River Gassen

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) John Fabbricatore

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen

(R) Sergei Matveyuk

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

70%↑

30%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
March 21, 2011 12:56 AM UTC

The Mayor's Race in a Nutshell

  • 8 Comments
  • by: Dan Willis

(Always great to get perspective from one of our own – promoted by Denver Pols)

Since we are in that campaign no-man’s land between ballot certification and ballots being mailed out, I thought I might share my thoughts on how the races are shaping up. These are only my opinions (and they ARE like belly buttons, everyone has one). So take it for what’s worth.

This posting will be about the mayor’s race. I will also do one for County Clerk and one for City Council-at-Large. The Auditor’s race is essentially over as far as I’m concerned. Gallagher should have no trouble avoiding a run-off. I am not involved enough with the district level council races to offer any well thought out insights, so I’m not going to blindly guess either.

This mayor’s race is different than most we have had in living memory. In fact, don’t know that we have ever had one where there were so many candidates of the high caliber we are seeing this year. I break the 10 candidates into 3 categories: the A-List, the B-List, and the “Who?” list. The four people on the last are Wolf, Peckman, Lopez and Simpson. Amongst them I would expect no more than 15% combined in May. Enough said about that group.

The B-List is regrettably short: Theresa Spahn. Having now heard her speak a few times, I think she is one of those candidates who went for the gold when she should have been targeting the bronze. If she were running in lower office, such as a legislative district or a council district, I would say she was the one to beat. She has great presence, speaks well, and knows the issues, but she is simply overwhelmed by the star power of the A-List candidates. I expect she will come in 6th in May, beating the “Who?’s” but falling behind the others.

This brings us to the 5 who will be at the top of the list, I’m just nor sure in what order:

Chris Romer  I have to acknowledge that if the election were held today, he would likely be the top vote getter on sheer name recognition, but would still likely face a run-off.  But the Romer name is all he has in way of positives. So he has already peaked and the only way he has to go is down from here.  He has attempted to get in depth on issues that are divisive, alienating more and more voters as he does so. If he had stuck with “I’m Roy’s kid” and kept his head down at the legislature, he probably would have been unbeatable. Still, the name carries enough weight, I think he is guaranteed to be in the run-off. Of course this means the person running against him in the run-off will have a better chance of solidifying the non-Romer voters all on his or her side.

James Mejia He is the opposite of Romer. His name is the least recognized of these top five, but he is doing a very good job of changing that. He is promoting a non-specific good feel for the future of Denver and I think that will resonate with voters this year. The big question will be can he get that message out effectively enough to translate it into votes. That remains to be seen. While Romer has no where to go but down, Mejia really has no where to go but up. Of course, if he starts doing too well, I would expct someone to start targeting him for negative ads. I don’t him well enough to know how well he would be able to stand up to that.

Doug Linkhart Doug is in a quandary. He wants to talk about issues but is finding voters don’t.  I would argue his name recognition is 2nd only to Romer and he gets it for his own work, not his father’s. His campaign should be building on a concept of “You know me. I am here for you.” and avoid the specifics.  I foresee money being his biggest hurdle. As I have said many times here: he does not need to raise the most, but does have to raise enough to cover extensive advertising and mailing expenses. In the name of fairness, I should disclose here that I have endorsed Doug. Why? Because I know him the best, and he was there for us (his legislature constituents).

Carol Boigan I would say she falls right behind Doug in the name recognition category, but she lacks the years of legislative history he can boast. And she doesn’t really connect with voters on a one-on-one basis the way Doug does. She is quickly being painted into the corner of being the capital W Woman candidate. She may relish that position, I don’t know, but it rarely works out for the candidate. She and Mejia were the first on TV, but first and effective are not the same thing.

Michael Hancock  Very personable fellow and I actually like him, as a person and a councilman. As a mayoral candidate, I think his positions on education are going to be his ultimate undoing.  In this crowded field, he may be able to elbow his way into the run-off, but I think he is the only one, of these last four, who probably would loose to Romer in that situation.

Tweet
Share

Comments

8 thoughts on “The Mayor’s Race in a Nutshell”

  1. I think this is probably the best “in a nutshell” analysis of the race I’ve seen.

    You’re right about the money — if that’s all that mattered we could declare Romer the winner today (unless Boigon wants to self fund like no one has seen in this race before).  Fortunately, it’s important but not all encompassing.  If a candidate can raise enough to get the message out (whether it’s TV, shiny mailers, or whatever), then they are in this.  There just aren’t that many people in Denver at the end of the day.

    I think the rank is appropriate too, but if Linkhart can’t raise even enough for some basic TV or mailers then he will start to slip as Boigon and Hancock become better known (unless she keeps running those dumb airplane spots — then she might find herself somewhere in Theresa Spahn territory).  I hate to say TV is needed and I wish it wasn’t, but if everyone else is doing it then it’s hard to compete without.

  2. I think you’re off on your analysis of Romer.  He’s gaining a lot of traction with the more moderate and conservative Denver voters based on the fact that he’s the only candidate with any business experience.  In a field of accomplished candidates, it’s setting him apart to a lot of people.

    1. actively organizing against him.

      His tenure as State Senator was marked by some quirking but not necessarily bad ideas, like support for a Denver trolley system and support for zipper lanes.

      As Hancock is appearing less viable as a candidate, a number of prominent Denver Republicans are supporting Romer which probably leads to suspicion of him as the “corporate” candidate from those on the left.

      Of course, Linkhart, who has always focused quite unashamedly on progressive approaches in areas like criminal justice, probably isn’t very attractive to conservative Democrats and Republicans.

      Carol Boigon has left remarkably little impression despite being a council person at large for quite a while.  The good piece of that is that nobody hates her.  The bad piece of that is that it isn’t clear that she standards for anything distinct.

      1. The voters who tried to save the Election Commission may not be too fond of her. And since they were among the 18% who actually voted in that special election, they are pretty die-hard voters.

  3. Frankly I have heard Theresa Spahn speak and she knows the most about the issues Denver voters care about. I don’t believe that you need to be an elected official to do well at the job. Hickenlooper was good mayor and he didn’t come into the job as an elected official.  It is refreshing to see someone outside of the normal political circle running that is so knowledgeable.  

    1. nope…not one bit /sarcasm

      Look I’ve met Theresa and I think she has a lot of potential.  But in this crowded of a field she will need enough cash to break through the Romer/Boigon/Mejia/Hancock TV blitz to reach people.  If she can pull in enough in March to do so, then more people will take her campaign seriously.

      Last month she outraised Linkhart…so did some city council candidates.  That’s about it.

  4. I’ve watched Denver races very closely over the last 20 years. There are 6 candidates running this year that would make a decent Mayor.

    Over the years while attending various community and neighborhood events I’ve noticed that Doug Linkhart is ALWAYS there. More amazingly, I’ve watched Doug field questions on major issues and obscure issues alike and Doug always has a thoughtful, very well informed opinion and he isn’t afraid to confront someone when the utter untruths or blatent lies.

    Chris Romer is a good guy and I’ve been to his house for enents to promote renewable energy including the Solar panels installed at his place. He is not afraid to take on controversial issues or even reverse his opinions when he hears new evidence.

    Michael Hancock has been a good public servant to his City Council constituents. If you visit all of the Candidate websites you’ll notice that Michael has (arguably) the most impresive list of endorsements. Along with the others he also has a great, inspirational VISION for Denver.

    Carol Boigon has a good list of accomplishments. She is promising NEW ideas for job growth but why haven’t most of these candidates launched these new ideas from their old City Council or State Senate seats?

    Very early in this election cycle I received emails from various friends for an event for James Mejia. These were friends from vrious volunteer boards(DCPA, CAP, etc.)Community organizations, Unions, Church…etc. I did not know James at the time but am impressed with his knowledge about exactly how Denver works and his vision to make it better.

    I also think Theresa Spahn is highly qualified and sure to split the “W” vote but why did she enter the race so darn late? She’s trying to catch a train that left the station 8 months ago.

  5. I liked your overview of the Mayor’s race. There really doesn’t seem to be much out there.  The power of the media is especially apparent these days when not much is in the media about this important race.

    Re:  the auditor’s race I wouldn’t count it over so soon.

    Gallagher has been sleeping at many of the events and I question if he has the energy and healthfulness for another term.  

    Just a few thoughts.

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

98 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!