U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
June 11, 2013 12:51 PM UTC
17 Comments
Morgan Carroll for AG? Not in this life. We won't be handing over the legal machinery of Colorado to the trial lawyers.
Why not? We're the same state that handed the election machinery of Colorado to an election lawyer. Nothing's too crazy to happen in this state.
Sen. Carroll is still my pick for Governor. It is time for Colorado to be led by a smart, capable, woman who does not seem to be beholden to anything but her constituency and her conscience.
Sadly, front range communities are seeing that Mr. Popular, himself, John,"pour me a fizzy one there, Ken." Frackenlooper is NEVER going to come around to protecting the water, air, and public health from relentless oil and gas development. Love clean water? …Hick is not your friend.
The CPA, COGA, IPAMS (or did they change their name?), and their armies of lobbyists and lawyers run the first floor of the Capitol as surely as they did when Bill Owens was governor. You lose nothing on your progressive agenda with a Carroll governorship, but you gain a stalwart defender of Colorados' natural resources.
Like Kathleen Curry, Morgan Carroll gets it.
….and I don't need a lecture about how impossible it is… or how invincible Hick is…contain yourselves…I am well aware of the conventional wisdom. This is just my opinion.
Understood. You aren't alone in being less than thrilled with this Governor while being well aware that is what it is.
Time for the annual bitching about how the Big Line is mathematically incoherent.
Odds of 1-1 convert to a probability of 0.50 (or 50%).
Odds of 6-5 convert to a probability of 0.45 (or 45%).
Odds of 4-1 convert to a probability of 0.20 (or 20%).
The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes must equal 1 (or 100%).
In this case, the odds given for the four candidates convert to a probability of 1.35 (or 135%), which is mathematically impossible.
The odds only need to equal 100 when it is the General Election, when everything is theoretically equal (no primaries).
This is similar to the odds to win the Super Bowl before the season starts. The odds have to include whether a team will win enough games to make the playoffs, whether they can win their conference championship, and then whether they can win the actual game itself.
I'm sorry, but that is gibberish. "Odds" dont equal anything. The probabilities to which they convert have to equal one (or 100%), if all potential winners are included. In the case of the Big Line, it is possible that not all candidates are included, so the sum of the probabilites could be less than one (or 100%). But it is mathematically impossible for the sum of the probabillites to be greater than one (or 100%).
. . . the probability has to be at least 1,000% that someone will get elected . . .
Not really. The probablility that someone will be elected is not "at least" 1.00 (or 100%)–it is exactly 1.00 (or 100%), barring something like the election being called off.
I guess I forgot to include a smiley/winky face with my last comment . . .
. . . I'm 110% embarrassed [blushy face]
It helps if you don't think too much about whether or not it makes sense and just accept that you do know who ColPols means to be ahead or behind and whether it's by a little or a lot, don't you? It's best to leave it at that if you don't want to wind up with a headache.
Pridefully putting ignorance on display is not a virtue, and it is so simple to do it right.
OK but consider yourself warned about that headache.
Has Morgan Carroll said anything about running for AG. I sincerely doubt she will leave the Senate before she is termed out. Why does Colorado Pols even have her up there?
Meanwhile, where is Mark Waller? I have personally heard him say he is running, he even has campaign t-shirts.
Waller is on the Big Line if you expand it
Only the first four candidates show up on the Line at the top of the screen. We used to add a second slide (for example, "Attorney General, cont'd," but that was getting out of hand.
Any way we could get odds on the two remaining recalls?