President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 23, 2008 12:38 AM UTC
53 Comments
…who care about the constitution and the rule of law. How dare they get upset with Mark Udall for caving in on FISA. Don’t they understand he did it to get more votes, not lose them.
that he’s lost more support from the left (the civil libertarian left, but the left nonetheless) rather than the center. I suspect it’s a temporary drift and they’re his voters to win back.
In addition, since neither campaign has been up on the air for a month (including Schaffer’s 527 butterfly ad), this poll more accurately reflects predispositions. The good news for Udall: when he was advertising heavily, he swayed support and favorables. The unknown: Schaffer hasn’t done any real advertising of his own yet.
In fact the difference between this poll and the older 9 point average lead is not far from the margin of error range. Rasmussen tends to favor Republicans. And Schaffer remains consistently behind. Like Obama’s race, it’s not going to be a cake walk but better 3 or 4 points ahead at this point than 3 or 4 points behind.
Correlation does not equal causation. You crack me up.
Are you one of those anti-science global warming is not caused by human actions types?
You’re a veritable font of Democratic talking points today.
mi compadre
look for causation all you want, there is no evidence to support that the FISA vote caused the drop in Udall’s numbers other than the first correlation. And claiming that as proof is equivalent to claiming “since the sun rises after I get up in the morning, it is my getting up in the morning that makes the sun rise.”
……as if he needs another. Maybe Udall’s financial director is behind this poll?
But what’s behind the big shift? I doubt that it’s as simple as FISA. Is it energy? Is it national security? Something else?
Anyone who saw the debate between the two men last week would wonder how Shaffer isn’t ahead by 20.
Stop reading the Denver Post and start actually listening to the candidates.
If you listen to the issues, Udall gets the vote. If you’re persuaded by Schaffer’s supposedly more appealing debating style, you might lean Schaffer.
I don’t know that many people actually watched the debate. It kind of flew under the radar for me…
…Bob was spouting “rubbish”? You mean I can’t read either local paper now?
Until I read the wrap up on here, and I live about 10 minutes away from where it took place.
Was it replayed on tv at all? Does youtube have it in its entirety? If both answers are no (I dont know the answers, btw). Then it doesnt matter who won the debate, because next to nobody saw it.
on Denver’s Channel 20 (the 9News backup station) at 10:30 a.m. Sunday. I doubt it got many viewers, either in person, online or over the air. There was some news coverage, but it wasn’t that favorable to Schaffer.
I’ve had a number of people, who are voting for Udall, that watched it and thought Schaffer clearly won the debate. And these are people who are worried because of that so they were not predisposed to see Schaffer as the winner.
Over at 9NEWS.com:
http://www.9news.com/news/arti…
About to watch it for the first time.
what you thought.
I’m surprised too. It’s not like Schaffer has any baggage. Oh Wait….
but he is really dumb.
by Wadhams that did it?
Actually I switched from uninspired to committed to Udall during the same period. Udall has my vote locked up even though he is a weenie to the left wing of the Democratic Party.
HA HA HA HA HA! Mark is steering to the center so fast he got whiplash.
With that said, I’ll still vote for him event though he’s a weenie to the DLC/TNR wing of the Democratic party.
he’d had lunch with “My Lunch With.”
I’ve pounded some of the ones I’ve had lunch with. I’ve even pounded candidates I’ve endorsed. But good job trying to change the subject.
Actually, I figure Udall appreciates my posts. Since he’s running as a moderate having people pointing out that he’s right in the middle helps him with his campaign.
Calm down.
You’ll notice I was agreeing with your points above about Udall’s FISA vote costing him support. But, sure, I’ll be glad to change the subject. There’s not much air left in here.
not much air right in here. 🙂
You hear that air? It’s coming out of someone’s balloon.
I wouldn’t be surprised either if Schaeffer closes the gap in fundraising.
is that Obama is going to be HUGE down ticket. Udall couldn’t have been gifted to climb the corporate latter at a more opportune time. Obamamania is going to cost Schaffer dearly possibly fatally. If Udall is lackluster, Obama is the real deal and will probably add one or two points to our not Boulder zip code resident.
What can also happen is people counter their Dem vote for president with a Repub vote for Senate. It’s the same thing that got Ritter elected at the same time as Suthers & Coffman.
There other thing that can play in this race is Schaffer stands for something while Udall is trying to stand for nothing. That’s like Bush/Kerrey in ’04. A lot of people will take someone who is clear in what they will do that they disagree with over someone who appears to have ot specifics.
We may see Udall snatch defeat from the jays of victory.
What the hell does Big Oil Bob Schaffer stand for? Lining his pockets at all costs and being blindly partisan regardless of the truth?
sounds like you’d actually love to be vindicated in your irrational attitude toward Udall by a Schaffer win.
I’m supposed to pretend he’s the greatest thing since sliced bread when he hides from his constitutents and pisses all over the constitution and the rule of law? I think we Democrats should stand for something other than just getting our team elected.
And I don’t want Schaffer to win, I prefer Udall. But I would like to see him win by 1 vote so he realizes there’s a downside to acting purely on political expediency.
Who said anything about the greatest thing since sliced bread? Look at your attitude toward Udall compared with your far more friendly take on Ken Salazar with his far less progressive friendly voting record (and not just voting, he was recruited to introduce Alberto for AG by the Bushies for goodness sake). You have a common sense attitude toward Salazar and a frothing at the mouth irrational attitude toward Udall. The whole lunch thing makes as much sense as any other possible explanation for the disparity.
On the Gonzales issue I tore into Salazar big-time here. But there are a couple of differences now:
1) In ’04 electing a Dem state-wide was a very iffy prospect. It was definitely a hold your nose if you have to time. But now in ’08 we could have done much better.
2) Udall has flipped big-time. He went from one of the few trying to do the right thing on Iraq, constitutional rights, etc to total pandering.
3) He’s the only one in a competitive race here that caved on FISA. Yes we can talk about both Salazars and Ed Perlmutter, but to what effect? They walk to re-election this time. But Mark Udall, if he barely wins, may learn that pandering may not be the best way to win.
4) I think Mark Udall has hidden from his constituents here in CD-2 the last 2 years. The guy does not appear in public to answer questions from the unwashed masses. I think our elected officials have a duty to do this regularly, even if they find it unpleasant.
As to it being the lunch issue, ask Rollie Heath if he thinks it meant I treated him softly afterwards.
What does being in a competitive race have to do with FISA? How would voting the other way have helped him in a state with a large Republican registration advantage? If it’s pandering, then why did Ed Perlmutter vote the same way even though he faces only nominal opposition?
David: Dazed and cornfused.
As to why Ed Perlmutter voted that way – I have no idea. The lame rationalizations they all had were clearly bogus so all we can do is guess.
As to your first 2 questions, your 2nd question answers your first question.
Look, you clearly are a staunch Udall supporter. That’s great. And I do hope he wins (by 1 vote). But if you’re trying to sell me on him by saying he’s no worse a tool than Salazar(s)/Perlmutter, well that isn’t a reason in my book to get excited about him.
I’m trying to say you are an idiot.
I guess I was just too stoopid to figure that out 🙂
Liberals only believe polls when it is in their favor. However, when you see conservatives winning the polls are WRONG or “the pollster tends to favor Republicans”!
Truth is Obama is going to drag Udall down the tubes in Colorado.
Things will only get worse for the Dems as we get closer to the DNC and November.
I agree. Not, perhaps, on the Senate race, but most certainly with regards to the Presidential.
I have colleagues and friends who don’t think that the Presidency will be a fight. It will. It will be a close, close election, and if you think otherwise, you’ve had too much of the Kool-Aid of “hope.”
Schaffer isn’t winning this poll, nor is McCain.
As to Rasmussen’s reputation, in their recent polling history they are very good, but they do tend to report an extra percentage or two to Republican candidates vs. other polls. A lot of Democratic sites trust their numbers above almost all other polling firms, regardless of the slight bias; I agree with them – Rasmussen is first rate.
However… as of right now, this poll is an outlier when compared to other polls of the state and should be viewed with some skepticism. Every once in a while a poll is just “off”; it happens to the best polling outfits using the tightest methodologies. This poll is either the beginning of a trend, or a false blip on the radar – no telling until more polls come out.
Bingo! The poll simply says that Schaffer isn’t losing by as much as McSame is. Through Republican eyes, that means he’s “winning.”
The significance is that he is losing by far less, even after the 527 attack ads running around the clock against Schaffer for a few months, with a dash of Udall introduction ads. Meanwhile Schaffer is just biding his time for a late run at the title. As a South Dakota native, this is looking an awful lot like how the Daschle/Thune race did at this time…
There you go again PR…”As to Rasmussen’s reputation, in their recent polling history they are very good, but they do tend to report an extra percentage or two to Republican candidates vs. other polls.”
LOL,LOL,LOL even Real Clear Politics have Obama up by only 4.3.
In July Kerry had a 10 point lead over Bush. What does that say? That says people are coming to their senses.
An old staunch Dem nun friend of mine says Obama scares her! She is voting for McCain, unheard of since I have known her.
People polled are afraid of saying no to Obama because they do not want to be labeled as racists. So if you look at these numbers in reality is McCain is winning.
How can I make that statement… just like PR makes the statement that Rassmussen adds an extra percentage point or two to the Republican Candidate.
Get real liberals… the conservatives and independents have always been quiet but deadly with their votes.
Watch out Dems you may not get what you think this year!
is going to be under your tree for Christmas.
You sound like the scared little boy whistling past the graveyard which come to think of it is exactly what is happening to the Republican brand. It is going to get buried. Economy in the tank. Geezer wheezer for a candidate. Welfare for the rich exposed as the core belief of the party. They’ve got trouble right there in Republican City and it can’t be fixed by portraying Obama as the scary black guy.
For every scared nun there are committed new young voters who are ready to work for a new direction in America. Obama is going to help down ticket races big time. Watch the tide wash this tired discredited party away into history. Bye bye Bush lovers.
you would be excommunicated if you didn’t vote Republican. A Catholic nun is probably the most conservative social conservative possible.
Me thinks sj needs to go to confession.
Look, if you’re too dumb to understand that a single poll cannot be definitive of anything, I can’t help.
OVERALL, Rasmussen’s weighting gives their numbers a slight lean toward the GOP; it’s a known bias acknowledged by poll watchers and analysts, kind of like knowing that Zogby’s Interactive numbers are worth shit. It doesn’t make them less reliable, it only informs your reading of their poll results.
In this poll, something odd is happening. My guess is, it’s backlash against Udall and the poll was over-sampled at the left end of the spectrum. This would explain the large Obama margin and the probable over-narrowing of the Senate race.
PS – in July of 2004 there was no poll in Colorado. A single poll in June had Kerry up 10, but it was countered in August with a tied poll. There was hope that Kerry could take the state, but Bush was considered to be in the poll position here. Obama is widely considered to be the slight favorite here this year.
No the Liberal Pollsters and Liberal Media are not smart enough to know people are lying about votes for Obama.
McCain is winning LOL and the Liberals are not bright enough to know it. LOL!
Glipin Guy you MUST NOT BE Catholic! Most Priests and Nuns are Democrats and VERY LIBERAL. I know they are in my family and family friends!
Go figure Catholics are supposed to be against Abortion…look at the Kennedy’s, Catholic. You need to look up the Catholic Senators and Congressmen who are Democrats and are FOR ABORTION.
I am against Abortion and I vote for the person not the party. I have voted Dem, Repub and Independent.
You are either a Dumb Democrat who does not check out the facts before you speak or If you see a Democrats lips move it is a LIE!
You still need to go to confession to resolve these anger management issues. Nasty is not one of the ten commandments the last time I looked.