“I am sorry to think that you do not get a man’s most effective criticism until you provoke him.”
–Henry David Thoreau
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Why the polls missed Sanders' Michigan upset:
*underestimated youth turnout
*underestimated independent turnout
*underestimated Sanders' support among minority voters
*factors specific to Michigan: late polling, off-target prior results
Clinton will probably win Florida, but Ohio is iffy.
Also open primaries more iffy to poll. Florida's is closed.
Just checked. Ohio's is open. You just have to request a Dem ballot to vote Dem primary.
Hillary is certain to win Florida! She's ahead in the polls! Doesn't that guarantee it?
No but her margin ranging from high 20s to high 30s probably does in an easier to poll closed primary state. Open Ohio polls range from single digit to solid double digit leads for her so we'll see if Bernie gets two upsets in a row. On the R side there's a poll showing Kasich significantly ahead of Trump and others showing Trump with a pretty small lead. Should be an interesting round.
Speaking of polling, and I have been for days as far as Obama's rising approval is concerned, I'm not the only one who has noticed and, contrary to the reality Rs are trying to manufacture, Obama actually fits in to the middle of the pack and way ahead of GW for approval at this stage of a presidency. When you look at Obama's approval and congressional approval (12 or 13 % these days) it sure doesn't look like the disgruntled public is primarily blaming Obama. The Gallop polls mentioned here are not outliers. The RCP average tells the same story.
“More Americans now say President Obama is doing a good job than at any other point in almost three years.
Fifty percent approve of Obama’s performance as chief executive, according to Gallup's most recent weekly survey, released Thursday.
Obama's job approval rating ticked up 5 points since the beginning of the year. It's also 3 points higher than the average of his weekly ratings for his seventh year in office, Gallup added.
Obama is now in the middle of the pack among other modern presidents during their final March in the Oval Office.
Obama outperforms former President George W. Bush, for example, who received a high of 32 percent in March 2008.
Former President Bill Clinton, meanwhile, earned 63 percent in March 2000, while former President Ronald Reagan earned 52 percent in March 1988.
Gallup surveyed 3,563 adults from Feb. 28 to March 6. Its new survey has a 2 percent margin of error.”
TAGS:Bill Clinton, polls, Presidency, White House, Politics
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/272493-poll-obamas-job-approval-hits-best-high-since-2013?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition
Sorry. Screwed up on the box quote thing and could only add regular quotation marks in edit.
Washington Post says Bernie's narrow win in Michigan earned him 7 net delegates . Hillary's 67 point blowout in Miss earned a net 25. So she gained a net 18 delegates while suffering the biggest upset in the history of the human race, if the chattering classes are to be believed. Actually there is no doubt Bernie gained enthusiasm and cash (minus the Cnote we sent our girl) in what truly was the biggest upset since … New Hampshire. If you are part of the chattering class, you chatter, it's what you do. But the political abacus is still inching toward an HRC victory. Will a narrow Bernie upset in Ohio and a Hillary blowout in Florida and North Carolina continue this victory crawl? Watch this space for future sour grapes … err, objective reporting.
You asked for it, V, and I bet you're gonna get it. 3… 2….1….
For Those Who Had Any Doubts Kansas Has Officially Gone Insane
And it's not just school funding. The Court has clashed with the Teabaggers in the other two branches over who controls court functions outside of the Supreme Court; under Kansas Constitutional law, that's the state's Supreme Court, but the Legislature and Brownback wanted to remove that control. They've fought over court budgets and many other things.
So now they want to put a measure on the ballot to make ruling against the legislature an impeachable offense. This, BTW, is the future of the United States under a fully Republican leadership. Take a really close look at Kansas: budget problems, slow job growth, petty power games, massive cuts to education and other programs… This is the promise of the Republican Party nationally now.
I don't have much sympathy for Kansas. Brownback gives new meaning to the term "male bimbo." But, as I recall, he was re-elected as governor. Brings to mind that old saying or proverb: be careful what you wish for, you may get it.
I do feel sorry for the sizeable minority who didn't vote for the guy, not for anyone who did. But CHB! Male bimbo? He's conducting the purest experiment in voodoo, trickle down, tax slashing, shrink the government, I know better what to do with my money than the government does economics in nation. I thought he'd be your hero. One of those Rs you’d vote for even though you don’t like the religious/social issue stuff because he’s so great on conservative economic ideology.
B.C.: sorry to disappoint you. I'm a traditional & common sense conservative, not a tea-bagger. As for me voting for Mr. Brownback, that thought is irrelevant as I live in Colorado, not Kansas.
But doesn't traditional conservatism extoll small governent, tax slashing, regulation slashing, I know how to spend my money better than the government does and it's your own fault if you aren't making it, keep your hands out of my pockets? Of course I mean the kind of R you'd vote for over a Dem because of the great conservative economic policies.
I know you don't vote in Kansas. But, if you did, would you have voted for his Dem opponent? If not, even if you would have chosen write in or third party to a make a point, wouldn't you have been one of those people you don't feel sorry for?
Hell, C.H., you are a RINO in the eyes of the TP Purity police. I was a moderate Republican for 33 years, just could,t take it any more and switched about 6 years ago. To these guys, Ronald Reagan is a commie.
I thought that train had left the station long ago, Michael…….
I thought it became official in ’14 when they re-elected Governor Skidmark.
Just finished a White House call on the US-Canadian Joint Statement on Climate, Energy, and Arctic Leadership announced this morning. POTUS and PM Trudeau are putting our climate challenges front and center – and putting our collective efforts in overdrive. And if there were any one single comment embedded in the press release that is worthy of mentioning, it's this: (the exact opposite of the #GreatWallofDrumpf)
Did they talk about any Trudeau plans for a Canadian wall to keep out the clamoring refugees in the event of a Drumpfenführer presidency?
No talk of the wall, but they did talk a lot about methane reduction. That could be construed as a directly assault on Drumpf’s pie-hole.
Get past the headline and this is a really good read. It is the conundrum rural America faces, whether you hail from rural Colorado or North Carolina: we've been taught to hate government for 20 years; election-after-election we witness rural constituents voting against their very own economic interests when voting Republican. Joe Scarborough nailed it yesterday. Localize this issue to Colorado and we've survived the Brophy / Musgrave era where they believed our largest threat was the gay and activists judges.
When Cory was in Congress he actively worked to kill SNAP, even though he had over 100,000 children in his district dependent upon them. Sonnenberg seems to think that saving coal is important – and they've all fought, tooth and nail, the renewable energy mandates – the very policy vehicle that has brought $6 billion in investment almost exclusively to the eastern plains, with the locals barely having to lift a finger to benefit from those investments.
The BEST program, the brainchild of Andrew Romanoff, has helped our small communities bring pride back to their main streets with beautiful new schools. I'll give you a couple of guesses who thought it was a bad idea.
I wish the CO Dems would put more resources in to the rural parts of the state, but we are the victims of 'math': the reality is we are practically irrelevant and becoming more so with each election. CO Dems have a good story to tell, one that is drown on a regular basis by the dumbassery in print, offered up by the likes of Brophy and Hillman who can't type the word liberal without the adjective, evil. They are our local equivalent of the Fox waterboarding.
But this article is spot on, sans the credit to 'Trump'. The economic message by Sanders is hitting our core, as it has played out recently in Kansas and Nebraska. The gun issue has never been a make-or-break for me; I've never owned one.
Today, Brophy and Buck think our existential threat is terrorists in Julesburg, a narrative filled with fear that they just can't give up. All the while we drown in natural resources, wind, solar, biomass and water and under-utilized human capital while our main streets wither.
It is all so utterly unnecessary.
And predictable.
A Message From Trump's America
"The gun issue has never been a make-or-break for me; I've never owned one….." Same for me.
Lots of very astute observations, both yours and at the links you provide.
An interesting read in today's Independent: "The doomed fight to fix Hickenlooper's impotent climate plan".
Very thought-provoking article.
Well, when Trump's forgotten Americans are forming up in a lynch mob, I admit I'm more interested in running for my life than instructing them in the art of tying a noose.
Another day another uptick into positive approval for Obama depite the party of hate's best efforts:
RCP Average 2/24 – 3/9 — 48.7 to 47.3 +1.4
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
"despite". I used up my editing time giving up and resorting to link.
Ben Carson Plans to Endorse Trump
I sometimes think that the neo-Republican knee-jerk hatred of government is as much Dems fault as it is Repubs goal. Back in the '70s, when the Republicans were bleeding members, post-Watergate, they recruited the Dixie-crats on a "values" platform. The told them Democrats were liberals and equated that with "Commies". They promised the religionists they'd let them run the table if they'd switch sides.And they did, for a couple of elections. Once they had them roped and tied, they brought back the economic policies that amounted to "I've got mine and the devil take the hindmost". But they kept the newcomers distracted with that "values" line while they picked their pockets with wage freezes, budget cuts and union-busting. If we tried hard enough, we might be able to show people who actually work for a living how much we've lost to these economic policies that help the rich get richer while ordinary people get poorer and that those "values" are just a shiny object.
cook, might I direct your attention to a phenomenon known as the Bernie Sanders campaign?
😉