President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
May 19, 2009 08:26 PM UTC
58 Comments
…I think Canter has a snowballs chance in Hell of even getting 20% in the Dem Primary. But LtCol Flerlage is so perfect to challenge Coffman for this seat it’s ridiculous!
He’s a former Fighter Pilot, a Marine, and a gun-rights Dem who is building all kinds of important coalitions within the metro area…all under the radar.
His current campaign manager needs to go, but he’s currently around for the fund-raising profs he has – and I see him being pushed aside at the beginning of ’10 when it really matters.
but the only way he wins the race is if there’s an (R) after his name. CD-6 is going to continue to be Safe Republican until there are different lines drawn up.
It’s gonna be even safer for the GOP.
…Bill Winter shit in his own nest by coming out ultra-liberal from Day One. Hank Eng, while a great guy, didn’t do anything to try and attract the moderate or indy voters. Heck, he really didn’t do anything to attract ANY voters.
Fundraising isn’t as important now as it will be in ’10. I think the internal moves and overtures that LtCol F is doing now is much more important.
I just think that the political reality of CD-6 makes any Democrat running in the district at best a quixotic candidate, and at worst someone who can make Mike Coffman look good to his red meat-chomping constituency.
Flerlage might have a chance if he had taken campaign organizing seriously from the beginning. Yes, his background is good to oppose Coffmamn but it’s only one talking point. Flerlage did not take starting the campaign off on solid ground seriously, chose a young and inexperienced “campaign manager,” and is only now starting to gain any momentum. A day late and a dollar short. He should have been doing double duty on day one, not just now figuring out how to run a campaign. A doggone disappointment.
Flerlage can’t raise money. Neither can Canter. In Q1, they both spent nearly as much money as they raised.
haven’t all the (D) candidates there been “perfect” for that district? At the end of the day, most Republicans are gonna vote Republican. I’m registered in CD6, and I’d love to see a (D) with a credible chance, but it’s not gonna happen. Not in 2010.
Thanks Dan.
Totally agree on the LtCol. He’s got the chops and this could well be the perfect storm.
No matter the unfortunate outcome of the ethics accusations against Coffman. the majority’s suspicious that he’s as dirty as CEW says he is. His military advantage is checked by LtCol. Flerlage. His message is old, the “we’re fightin’ ’em over there, blah blah blah” schtick. Pure 2003-04 crap.
While CD6 is about as extreme right as you can go, the old “vote for the Dem’s and die” routine’s being trumped by the fact that even these people are aware of the economic disaster the republican stranglehold in House, Senate and Whitehouse brought. If ever these robots are going to man up and vote their kids’ best interests in the secrecy of the booth, this is the time. They can allways tell their buddies they voted red and fiegn shock if LtCol Flerlage pulls it off.
CD6 blue? What a thought!!!!!!
CD-6 is Coffman’s seat as long as he wants it.
The only way to get rid of him would be to get caught with a live boy or a dead girl…
Judging on the make-up of CD-6, the dead girl thing is iffy…
I have to agree, but with remorse. Flerlage is a nice enough guy and he seems to believe in what he’s selling. He has the military background and may get a big endorsement down the road, but he’s more disorganized than Canter; and that’s ain’t good at this point. Neither of them is close to outraising Coffman or even beginning to touch the base out there that they need to. You’d think a guy like Flerlage would know about strategy, but it’s not coming together and he knows it. Canter is just having fun.
…could elect anyone! Anyone at all.
And don’t forget The Silent One’s big advantage in the gubernatorial contest; he has opinions, but he ain’t gonna tell us what they are!
Bennet won’t have a problem raising money, but he’s been shaky on the stump and will have a hard time attracting volunteers because of both a lack of charisma and his refusal to take a position on several issues important to Democrats.
At least among the Dems I talk to, most seem reasonably OK with Bennet at this point. Remember, we just had Salazar, who voted for torture and introduced Gonzales to the Senate. We know we aren’t going to get a liberal in this spot. Among the volunteering class that I hang with the question was if someone really energizing would primary him. Since it seems not, I think these people will be happy enough with Bennet and excited enough about keeping the seat Dem to get out there.
he is safe
Is that until a real Republican challenger emerges who will inevitably piss off the Dem base with knuckle-dragging appeals to homophobia, the virtues of torture, corporate selling out, and contempt for public education, the Senate race will stay pretty sleepy–through no fault of Michael Bennet’s. In the meantime, Bennet will be raising gobs and gobs of money.
Considering he’s got to build a base from nothing for a statewide run, I think their strategy of local availabilities and constant outreach makes a lot of good sense.
Democrats stand an excellent chance–maybe better than excellent–of a 60+ majority in the Senate after 2010 without Bennet, given the number of retiring Republicans and the general slide of the electorate away from the essentially brain dead GOP.
IF Bennet were elected on grounds that no one dared to challenge him as an “incumbent,” however feeble that claim might be, we would then be stuck with a Republican lookalike…not just for six years, but potentially for much longer, given the non-proclivity of Colorado Democrats to shake it up.
Therefore: Liberal Democrats sit on their hands, let the seat go to a Republican on grounds it can be regained in six years…as the state becomes steadily more progressive, thanks in part to Californians moving here…when a Democrat more to their liking gets his/her act together early on. By then we could be talking Polis, for example, who might be disinclined to challenge a sitting incumbent from his own party (nominally) in 2010 but would have no such reservations in 2016.
Lose the bet? Well, what’s really to lose if a DINO occupies the slot since the old 60-vote routine is unlikely to be a problem for many years to come. AND, given the likely Republican candidate/senator, such a victory would be made all the easier by the clownish tactics of the one-term Republican in office when it least mattered (2011-2017).
Of course, this is not the gospel according to the Incumbent Democratic Establishment, such as it is. On the other hand, know any Obama Democrats just itching to make calls, ring doorbells, hand over money for Bennet? No, I don’t either.
…what’s really to lose if a Republican occupies the slot instead of a DINO, since the old 60-vote routine…
I gotta say that I like Penry’s chances against foot-in-mouth McInnis and do-nothing but piss people off Ritter. The fact that you aren’t hearing about Penry bragging about raising money probably means that he’s quietly making sure he has more than enough financial support before he launches a campaign. Unlike the Congressman who takes the “if you make people think you have support it will come true” approach.
From where I stand it looks like Penry is being very methodical, doing the right things.
Particularly if the economy is still bad, we can’t see voters agreeing that someone in their early 30s should be the CEO of the state.
but how is Penry “doing the right things”? If he’s trying to win the GOP primary (which is obviously an important step in winning the Governor’s mansion) then I would say he’s doing the right things.
But if he’s trying to win the general election, then he’s off to a terrible start. Nothing he’s done in the past two sessions has shown me that he’s anything other than a right wing sycophant. He’s done a lot to energize his base–and to try to blast McInnis out of the water–but he’s done little to persuade the middle that he’s their guy.
I’m not saying Penry isn’t very good at calculating his political battles, and at making himself sound more moderate than he really is, but he’s going to have to get at least some Democrats to vote for him in 2010–not to mention the independents who liked Ritter in 2006. He’s got time, but I don’t see him being able to win an ideological purity contest in the GOP primary, and then swing around to the center for the general election.
Compared to that, I’d say his age and the fact that he’s a career politician are the least of his worries.
who’s never run anything bigger than his own senate office.
n/t
that in the age of Obama, Bennet, T. Carroll, etc. the issue of age comes second to ability to get things done.
For redstateblues to suggest that Penry is solely focused on partisan issues is to ignore his record of accomplishment on water, energy and education. If you look past the bullshit you’ll see that it was Penry helping broker deals on those 3 important issues during his tenure in the statehouse.
As for Ralphie’s comment, what would you consider a “real job?” Blogging out of your basement while your wife pays your bills? Thought so.
There’s no comparison there.
But it also depends on the office. We don’t think age would matter as much to voters in a U.S. Senate race, but it does for governor.
I see your point but don’t accept it. Bill Ritter may be the requisite age, have the right haircut and be able to say 100 words when 10 would do but that doesn’t make him a governor. He’s a trainwreck.
It’s time to give the next generation a crack at it.
He’s certainly proved himself on issues like water rights, as you suggested above.
Oh wait, he totally destroyed any credibility he ever had on water by writing Amendment 52. Not only was it the dumbest piece of water legislation since Ref. A, but it proved his allegiance lies with the Colorado Asphalt Pavement Association. I mean, it would have been great pork for his district, but how does it show him as a good leader?
When the Governor had a good idea of using a moderate increase in tag fees to fund FASTER and give our roads some much needed repairs, Penry went out of his way to criticize him. Apparently Penry thinks it’s a better idea to steal water funding to repave I-70.
I’d just as soon keep a Governor who I feel is mediocre than trade him for a young, ambitious career politician whose record is spotty at best. At least with Ritter I (sometimes) know where he stands. With Penry, I have no idea who’s going to show up: the right wing teabgagger, or the moderate “dealmaker”.
Josh Penry was opposing Ref. A when Bill Ritter was pleading illegals down to ag trespass. Can you point to one thing Bill Ritter’s done for the water community — besides bringing a “climate change adviser” in to his office?
Maybe we should ask Ritter’s CDOT director who’s done more for the water community in Colorado:
http://www.colorado.gov/dpa/do…
The 52 vs 58 contrast seems pretty clear to me. Penry was trying to reprioritize existing budgets to meet a need while Ritter was trying to hike taxes on one of the state’s largest industries.
Keep talking, RSB…
What, are you stoopid?
Spoken like a true front range, liberal blogger.
Based on his do-nothing record I’d guess that Bill Ritter has asked himself that question before too.
And they should not be messed with. It’s behind-the-scenes power that exerts more influence than most people suspect.
Penry’s proposed amendment went down in flames because he angered the water buffaloes.
you haven’t seemed ready for that in the past, but I’ll bite: show me Penry’s accomplishments.
Ralphie isn’t running for Governor. Nice logical fallacy fruit salad though: ad hominem and Red Herring in the same sentence!
1) I don’t have a basement.
2) I pay the bills.
Next red herring?
Name a real job Penry has ever held.
is probably because I’m quietly deriving more than enough new theories of physics before I announce to anyone that I’m a physicist.
he’s gaining hispanic support and could drive a bunch of new GOP voters to the polls for him. He isn’t the leader, but he isn’t a 100-1 shot either
That would be generous. Tidwell is not a real contender.
and is getting his team organized…he could be suprising if he can just raise the funds
You mean, he’s gaining a Hispanic supporter.
I think it’s “an Hispanic”
But either way, it’s nothing to crow about.
I was just trying to be funny. Clearly I failed.
He’s got us baffled.
This is interesting as both are riding on the same 2 questions and as such both seats could flip in ’10.
First, in the last 2 elections we have been blessed with self-destructive opponents in Beauprez & Schaffer. So Ritter & Udall won running against train wreck candidates. In the SOS and Treasurer race where the GOP fielded strong candidates it was very close with one going each way.
So if the GOP fields competent candidates we could see a very close race. Based on what we have seen so far Penry, Buck, & Frazier all appear to be very competent. Not perfect but quite competent. So we may see very close races from that perspective.
Second, Ritter & Bennet do not thrill the base. Yes the base will vote for them. But the base is also key for money and time. If they don’t have a charged up base they will have less money and fewer feet on the ground.
And while money can come in from outside, feet on the ground needs to come from the base here. People like JO are always unhappy with candidates moderate enough to win, but is he/she so unhappy that she/he doesn’t volunteer? If that occurs then that costs them.
I agree that the odds favor Ritter & Bennet. But I can see very reasonable scenarios where they lose. And because they are similiar campaigners with similiar problems, I don’t think it will split – either both win (yah!) or both lose.
David, your post has so many on the one hand, on the other hands, ultimately dissolving into a confusing mess, but this one is just silly. Bob Beauprez got his campaign off to a more competent start than these guys have.
I think Beauprez & Schaffer’s biggest killer was they lost in the blogosphere. It’s not that there are a ton of votes up for grabs in places like Pols, but we were able to push stories to the front page (metaphorically, I include TV, conversation, etc in this) and keep them there.
Issues like Schaffer in the Mariannas Islands, Mt. Denali, etc (and Macaca for Wadhams in VA) are things that in the past would hit the news for maybe a day and then go away for good. But we were able to keep bringing them back again and again.
And equally important the GOP did not have the ability to run counter-stories. This not only meant that there were no stories against Ritter/Udall being pushed, but that the front page space needs to be filled and all that was available were the GOP issues.
If the GOP learns how to do this, which is unlikely but not impossible in ’10, then we need to be very worried.
Schaffer and Beauprez did not run good campaigns, but both had solid name ID – at least the uninformed voter would recognize their names.
Bennet, Buck and Frazier are all candidates with little statewide name ID. That’s good for them, in that they don’t have many negatives against them, but it’s also a hurdle to overcome if they are going to attract the uninformed average voter. Voters are going to choose between two candidates that they have been less familiar with than any slate in years.
…don’t see any difference between Ridder/Bennet and whatever set of retrograde morons the Republicans put up. In the end, it makes no difference whether Stevie and Mikey are in office or not… Stevie won’t do anything and Mikey can be counted on to vote as the bankers tell him.
Saying you’re a “Colorado Democrat” is make-believe at best, self-delusion at worst.
As long as real Democrats have the speaker’s chair and the majority leader’s position — and neither one depends on R/B, now or in 2011 — the name of the game (if “game” it is) is introducing, for the very first time, the principles of the Democratic Party into the State of Colorado. Oh, and funding education…that could be the place to start.
How about first we fix education so that additional funding actually improves it?
dumb shits one can find relieving themselves ’round about–people who don’t know the difference between a Democrat and a Republican, for example.
All three will win. They are all competent at both their job and as campaigners. They are all well liked and respected. And their opponents are not going to get much money or effort because their odds are so bad.
They’ll each have to campaign and do so well. But we won’t see any nail-biters here. The state-wide money and effort is all going to Governor & Senate.
You should note that Bernie Buescher is NOT respected west of Vail. If he wins it will be because his opponent is a disaster.
I’d say that still shows a lot of respect out in Grand Junction.
and Mesa County shot itself in the foot. Besides, Buescher won’t need Mesa County to win a statewide election. Nobody ever does.
CD-1 (DeGette) and CD-5 (Lamborn) are ignored.
Shame on you.
How do you expect people to get involved when you pretend these CDs don’t even exist?
CD5 was voted off the planet last week.
Sorry.
Seriously, give me any explanation that does not include aliens landing that ends with either losing.
1. Thorzine wears off, new supplies cut off by bankruptcy of manufacturer…
2. Aliens leave (having landed years ago, settled in CD5, etc.).
3. Rev. Dobson introduces the world to his other families, children of God every one.
4. Swine flu diagnosed at Garden of the Gods, El Paso (or is it Passeo?) County quarantined for five years.
5. Army annexes El Paso County, evicts residents, provides free transportation and FEMA trailers in lovely Western Kansas–so near, yet so Republican.