U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
May 21, 2009 07:50 AM UTC
20 Comments
It seems like the Governor is alienating himself from the legislature as well as traditional Democratic constituencies like labor and the Hispanic community (i.e. picking Bennet to replace Salazar.) There also haven’t been very many people who are even remotely excited about his re-election campaign–which is another issue entirely as it’s been virtually non-existent.
Meanwhile the GOP seems like they’ve pretty much settled on Penry, and he’s got them pissing their pants with excitement. An energized GOP base, combined with a less than enthusiastic group of Democratic activists (see: low Dem voter turnout) who may still be burned out from ’08, is a recipe for disaster for both the gubernatorial and US Senate races. A primary may end up getting the base excited enough, but if their candidate ends up losing, then Ritter goes into the general with Penry having all the ammunition he needs from what would certainly be a bruising primary campaign.
There’s also the tiny problem of getting someone to risk the kind of political capital it would take to run a serious campaign against the incumbent Governor from their own party. If they lost the campaign, it would probably be the end of their political career (at least for a few cycles) and they risk fracturing the Colorado Democratic Party–at least enough to throw open the door for Penry to sneak through.
So, it’s probably not too late, but it’s going to take someone who’s willing to throw their own neck out there (along with the necks of the people who would choose to support that candidate) as well as someone who figures it would be better to risk it all than to just settle for Ritter.
I guess the real question is: do you know any gamblers?
and I guess my question is what you just expressed–is there anyone in the party willing to primary him? I have to wonder if it is as big of a political career gamble as you and I think it is–I mean, isn’t there a pretty good chance that the rank and file Dems that do most of the work (state and county folks, precinct people, captains, house and senate directors) would actually welcome a primary against him and possibly jump on board with the challenger? After all, Ritter has managed to piss off quite a few folks within his own party and I have to wonder if it would really fracture the party to primary him…or by primarying him, would we be putting someone far better on the ticket for the general?
Is there any polling recently on his favorables/unfavorables? I always wonder what folks in real life, outside the blogging echo chambers, think of his performance.
The biggest problem and perhaps also a plus for Penry is that no one outside of political insiders know who the hell he is. He may excite the GOP but he hasn’t got a hope in hell if he doesn’t rev up the Unaffiliateds and they are pretty much the 3rd party in this state, at this point.
Hillary fought it out with Obama to the last bloody primary – and is now SOS. Because they disagreed but did not try to destroy the other.
but I do think Clinton’s campaign was pretty hell-bent on destroying Obama. From Jeremiah Wright to calling him a terrorist sympathizer, it was very personal and very nasty.
I thought they both did a pretty fair job of trying to destroy one another. The fact that Hillary is SoS right now is due to Obama’s political expertise–not because of a lack of Hillary Clinton trying to completely destroy him in the primaries.
Anyway, I think that comparing the 2008 Dem presidential primary with a potential Colorado gubernatorial or senatorial primary is a stretch.
although that was a brutal primary and it seemed that the Clinton camp was more than willing to destroy him.
But your larger point is a good one–if it’s a well fought primary, it raises interest and name recognition for whoever runs and quite possibly (as it did for Obama) energizes the base. A primary is not necessarily a bad thing, despite how often the party faithful such as the DLC prefer coronations and frown on the democratic process.
Only activists vote in primaries. Even Obama’s unprecedented turnout in Colorado added together with Clinton and all the Republican candidates combined amounted to less than 10% of registered voters.
I don’t disagree that primaries are sometimes useful, but they are far closer to a coronation than a democratic election.
and typical caucus turn out is something like 1% in a good year
About 13,000 Dem caucus attendees in 2004 if memory serves, and that was a presidential year. Far less than 1%–more like 0.005%.
In the 2004 primary, which is the last time we’ve had a contested statewide office (U.S. Senate) the statewide turnout for Democrats was 26%–237,000 voters–only a bit more than the number that participated in the unprecedented 2008 Super Tuesday caucus. And I can safely say that out of the 130 or so from my precinct, I could count on one hand the people who were not either employed by or volunteering for the Obama or Clinton campaign or one of the downballot candidates.
Less than a third of the state were Democrats and only a quarter of them voted. Very much the activist crowd.
Every neighbor I knew who was there was not a member of any campaign. They did have a strong opinion, but that is what drives people to spend the evening there.
although Colorado actually held a caucus. But your larger point remains.
He has angered the base. I don’t see a challenger forthcoming.
My question was not will he be challanged or should he be challanged – it was could he be challanged.
So I think it’s clear that there is still time, but as you said, it’s not going tohappen.
None of the candidates you listed are going to make the left happy in the end.
Romanoff is not very liberal. He’s witty and funny, but on policy grounds he’s pretty much right up Ritter’s alley, except maybe on choice, which so far hasn’t been an issue with Ritter. Bipartisanship was his most important priority as Speaker, and I think even disgraced former minority leader Joe Stengel would give him kudos on that count.
Hickenlooper is likely more socially liberal than Romanoff or Ritter, but he’s terrible with labor and he’d be spending as much energy if not more trying to impress the Chamber of Commerce.
Bueller is a fictional character, but I have to admit he does look hot in swim trunks, so he has that going for him.
I want a leader. Your point about the two candidates I mentioned not really satiating the Sirotas of the state is very true, but those are two candidates who could win both the primary and the general.
While I’m saddened by the Governor’s veto of HB 1170, his mouth-zipped-until-the-last-second approach on the death penalty bill, and his horribly run A-58 campaign, in the end I just want to win. Due to his horrible leadership and his inability to communicate properly with the House and Senate, we stand a very real chance of not holding on to the Governor’s mansion. If we think there are problems passing our agenda now, just imagine how things will be with a Republican Governor.
No Democrats want to hear newly elected Governor Penry (shudder) give the state of the state address in 2011. Seriously. I just threw up in my mouth thinking about it.
Well said.
But most of the grousing has been about “conservadems” and how there’s no difference between Ritter or Bennet and Republicans. I disagree with that assertion, and I know you do too, but that seems to be where most of the energy is.
I want somebody to be setting the direction at the Capitol. Carroll and Groff prove incapable of articulating a coherent policy agenda, though in their defense (and Ritter’s), the budget situation was clearly a huge thorn in their sides. And I’m hoping Brandon Shaffer will be better at it than Peter Groff was. Still, I doubt he could hold a candle to Joan Fitz-Gerald, who was really the sort of tyrant the legislature needs to stay on task. But we know Ritter could be that person. He did a reasonably good job in 2007, aside from a few stumbles. But we know he has it in him, even if he’s lost touch with that side of himself lately.
I don’t know that either Andrew or Hick have that kind of mojo. I’m not sure I want to take the risk to find out. Frankly, incumbency has its privileges when it comes to election time, and I too want to win. I’m not aware of anybody who is actually doing the ground work to mount a credible challenge, and it’s a bit late to get started.
The way I see it we have one year to inspire, cajole, harass, or do whatever it takes to make Ritter become a better governor. And if he fails, he’ll lose. And so will Colorado.
I think he’s the only one who could raise the $$$ and has the name recognition and favorability to win the primary and the general.
And since he and Ritter have never been particularly close (and they are probably less so after Ritter picked Bennet over Hick for the Senate seat), I would think Hick would be a natural to do it.
Ed Casso was on AM 760 Jay Marvin/David Sirota yesterday – He pulled no punches on Ritter’s unpopularity with the Latino Community over Bennet’s pick and with vetoing the most recent labor bill he authored.
He did not mention Ritter’s lack of a stand on the death penalty- but that is also a subject.
Casso mentioned the popular candidates Andrew Romanoff and Ed Perlmutter – but acknowledged no one has said anything about running for governor.
listen here
Down in Louisiana TPM reports:
Imagine Ritter in a primary against someone like this. That would be so entertaining. Wade, go find us someone…