November 15, 2009 09:43 PM UTC

Tom Tancredo and Dede Scozzafava's Ghost

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• by: Colorado Pols

The Denver Post reports:

GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis has largely cleared the field of Republican competitors – for now – but supporters of a former rival say he must prove his fiscal and social conservatism to win them over.

Following state Sen. Josh Penry’s pullout, McInnis’ reception as the likely GOP nominee was frosty in some circles.

State Republican Party chairman Dick Wadhams and others were quick to point out that McInnis, a former congressman, still had time to draw another GOP challenger…

McInnis touts the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights on the campaign trail and has railed against higher car-registration and late fees. He’s been critical of Gov. Bill Ritter’s energy policies, which McInnis said have hurt the oil and gas industry.

But Penry and his cadre say they want to see details.

“People want to know how are you going to balance the budget and how are you going to fund core priorities,” Penry said. “It’s not ‘no government.’ It’s not big government. It’s making government set priorities.”

And McInnis still faces a contingent within the GOP that is focused on social issues and is eager to welcome back Tancredo.

Tancredo’s entrance would bring illegal immigration, abortion and gay rights to the fore of debate despite the prevailing Republican strategy to focus on fiscal issues, said former Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave…

Tancredo “getting in is going to change everything,” said Musgrave, who supported Penry in the primary. “Scott McInnis would do well to really say publicly where he stands on the issues very clearly.” [Pols emphasis]

We haven’t changed our original view: Tom Tancredo can’t possibly win the general election, though he can do damage to Scott McInnis in a primary. Tancredo is perhaps more dangerous to McInnis than ex-candidate Josh Penry, because Tancredo isn’t bound by the same constraints (desire to not ultimately be laughed at, real future career possibilities, etc.). What’s more, Tancredo can rally an army of like-minded, uh, polite synonym for ‘kooks,’ from around the country to his banner–if he really wanted to, he could turn the GOP gubernatorial primary into a circus the likes of which Marc Holtzman could only have dreamed of.

The unpredictable element in this situation is the Republican base. The angry “Sarah Palin wing” of the Republican Party is where the energy is today. Penry, if you recall, said that the Republican Party’s biggest problem is that there aren’t enough “Tea Partiers.” Can McInnis win a contested primary without appeasing them?

In the NY-23 special election, after all, wasn’t the lesson that conservatives will rebel if not given a choice who represents their values? Democrats crow about their squeak of a win in New York, but Marilyn Musgrave, as if she herself wasn’t a cautionary tale, replies that ‘principle’ will bring long-term victory for the GOP: in NY-23 and elsewhere. Scoff all you want, she’s got a loud enough echo chamber that she’ll never hear you. And if there’s going to be an electoral surge next year, won’t the “Tea Party” right be where you’ll see it? Isn’t that what the GOP is counting on?

Bottom line: can Musgrave and Tancredo make the “Sarah Palin wing” the decisive factor they imagine themselves to be? And who is that more dangerous for in the long run–Democrats, or Scott McInnis? At the very least, what will having to mouth the hard right’s Shibboleths, a dance that already began opposite Penry, mean for McInnis’ general electability?