President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
52%↑
48%↓
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 09, 2024 01:15 PM UTC
33 Comments
got an invitation from Denver county Dems:
One other dimension to keep track of – NBC is saying the current House balance is 204 Dems, 212 Republicans. A House majority would vastly improve my mood, this time without powerful drugs. One seat in lil' ol' CO-8 could make like all the difference in the world!
AP site:
Colorado Sec. of State site, showing results and estimates of counted votes:
Crap! CNN shows 97% counted with Evans ahead by 2.5K.
Yeah. Unfortunately, not enough votes left for Caraveo to win. Time to get to work on the 2026 campaign to unseat Evans. Evans will be a backbencher with little influence. If he's smart, he avoid Boebert and learns to work with less nutty Rs. Time will tell.
I wrote in another post that the sniping from the far right has already started on Evans, as well as Crank and Hurd. Some nut on the RINO Watch website already nominated the three for the "RINO Wall of Shame" because they're not conservative enough. Evans could do well by quietly cultivating Joe Neguse and/or Jason Crow to see how to work his way in.
And, back in the day when there were more than a handful of good Colorado Republicans around, Crank was a senior staffer for former R Rep. Joel Hefley.
I don't see Evans doing that. He doesn't seem as bright as Hurd or Crank, nor as savvy. Plus, his district is not going to get any easier to win in 2026, so he may be a one-termer.
He may be a one-timer, but that doesn't make it any easier to swallow the phrase "Speaker Johnson."
Democrats on the redistricting committee are idiots. Colorado is a solidly blue state and we're going to have a 4-4 congressional house delegation. Meanwhile, neighboring CD 1 is D+55 and CD2 is D+40. It wouldn't have been hard to draw CD8 in a way to guaranty a democratic victory. The districts should have been drawn with the goal of maintaining a 5-3 Democratic majority.
You raise a valid point, Bill Carson.
Even back in 2000 when Colorado got it's 7the House seat, the folks in Denver had a fit when there was talk of dividing Denver up to help draw winnable suburban districts. They labeled it a violation of something called "communities of interest."
More recently with the addition of the 8th CD, there were ways of drawing maps which would have given Dems a 6 to 2 edge.
But instead of the legislature drawing maps, we have a non-partisan commission because that's what smug, sanctimonious liberals prefer. We don't want to lower ourselves to the level of North Carolina, Florida and Texas which have Republican districts. We prefer to have fair districts.
But you're point is well taken and there are those of us in agreement with you.
"We prefer to have fair districts."
I agree with your sentiment regarding insufferable, sanctimonious liberals.
I pay a fair amount of attention to statewide politics but, like most people, I don't know much about how the federal and state districts are drawn. Does the same non-partisan commission that draws the congressional districts also draw the state districts? Because it looks to me (see below) that the the way the state districts have been drawn pretty well cements Democratic control of the state legislature.
I know generally where the more conservative and liberal areas are geographically, but looking at the election results from the Secretary of State, a couple of things stick out:
1. My eyes are drawn to the distinction between the number of districts that are overwhelmingly drawn as "safe" districts for one party or the other. I'll define a "safe" district as one where the margin of victory in this election is 8 points or more. (Yes, this is an unusual election year, but we have to expect outliers.) 8 points is arbitrary, but 10 points seems like a blowout.
2. Of the 65 State House elections, all but 12 districts appear to be "safe" for one party or the other. There appear to by untrained eye to be 19 safe R districts, 12 "competitive" districts, and 34 safe D districts.
3. Of the 18 State Senate races, all but 4 districts appear to be "safe" for one party or the other.
4. Of the 8 Congressional races, all but 2 districts appear to be "safe." There are 4 safe D districts, 2 safe R districts, and 2 districts within an 8-point margin but which (this year) lean R.
5. ISTM that D3 (Frisch/Hurd) is an outlier due to all of the money and groundgame Frisch laid out to defeat Boebert, and that in the future D3 will be a safe R district. That would leave us with 4 safe D seats, 3 safe R seats, and 1 "competitive" district.
6. I expect that D8 may trend toward the GOP considering its proximity to Weld County.
The selection process of commissioners is NOT in any way under the control of the state party. see: https://redistricting.colorado.gov/content/commissioner-selection-process
The Colorado approach of an Independent Redistricting Commission: based on "The state constitution requires that 8 of the 12 commissioners, including at least 1 unaTffiliated commissioner, vote for any such standard, guideline, or methodology." Don't know how you then think the Democrats were idiots OR able to control the process.
Thanks for reminding everyone about how the process actually works.
What a stupid way to form a commission. Regardless of the intentions or alliances of the members of the commission, they are essentially gerrymandering the same way that Republicans would do it if Republicans held ever seat on the commission, which is that they are packing the urban seats with Democrats and spreading everybody else out.
The last time I looked, among Active Registrations, Democrats are only 26% of the electorate. Republicans 23%. Unaffiliated are above 48% of the voters. Major parties are shedding 0.1% to 0.2% per month. By the 2026 general election, I expect Unaffiliated to be over 50%.
Dems are winning — but NOT because of the party affiliations.
People don't want to affiliate with one of the two major political parties for lots of reasons: they don't want to align themselves with all of political baggage or buffoonery of either party; they don't agree with all of the platform; or (and this is the biggie) they are tired of being inundated with all the political mailers, phone calls, door-knockers, and text messages.
Personally, I align more closely with the Democrats, but I refuse to formally affiliate with the party who awarded most of the primary delegates to a candidate who only garnered 40% of the caucus votes rather than the candidate who earned 60% of the votes.
If the major parties are not going to be responsive to voters, then they should die out. But regardless, districts must be drawn and the way the the present districts have been drawn is ludicrous. The committee is doing a bad job. Perhaps that's by design.
The problem was voting to create that commission when Dems had majorities in both houses of the state legislature that could have favorably gerrymandered those congressional districts for a decade.
Dems who voted for the commission engaged in performative piety. We Dems do not learn lessons. Ever.
Yep, we're playing checkers and they are playing 3D Chess.
easy to look up … when the Redistricting Commission amendments passed, the legislature was split.
CO Senate was
Democratic Party 16
Republican Party 18 with President: Kevin J. Grantham (R)
Independent 1
CO House was
Democratic Party 36
Republican Party 29
Not excusing anything, but there were 2 slightly different citizen initiatives to create redistricting commissions drafted and on the table, before the legislature passed a resolution to put referred redistricting measures on the ballot (Y and Z). There would have been something on the ballot in 2018 even if the legislature didn't do something, and I'd guess something would've passed. I dislike that we have a 4-4 split right now as much as anyone, but I don't think the majority of Colorado voters would've cared about that possibility enough to defeat a ballot measure in 2018.
Is Gabe the next Cory Gardner? Stayed tuned.
Well, Caraveo has conceded. Crap. Shucks. Darn it to heck.
Yeah, I just saw that as well. Interestingly though the AP has not called the race yet.
Woop, Woop!
Rep Evans did it.
Congrats! I need to call his Mom.
And congrats to Rep Boebert, Rep Hurd, and Rep Crank.
What an amazing election cycle,
I'm glowing with pleasure.
And yes, us RINO Watch folks will be watching his votes.
And us DINO's as well. (45 yrs in Boulder)
When you're done glowing with pleasure, remember to clean yourself up.
We'll, it's official. We are now seeing the Age of Idiocracy ushered in 480 years earlier than predicted.
Presciently including WWE as the model of behavior for the President. Trumptards rule!
Here's some good news …..
Trump Offers Elise Stefanik Role as U.N. Ambassador – The New York Times
The good news? The GOP paper-thin House majority is about to get a little thinner.
The bad news? Only for a few months since her district is fair red.
Memo to Kathy Hochul: delay setting an election date as long as possible.
Let's hope he packs his cabinet with House members from swing districts.
Well, it may be a bit early but for 2026, I'd like to see the Democratic nominee be either Adams County Commisioner Lynn Baca or her fellow Commissioner Steve O'Dorisio.
Never too soon for that sort of thing! As between Baca and O'Doriso, do you have a preference?
I am a fan of both.
O'dorisio will be term limited in '26. He has a strong blue collar background, having worked his way through college and law school in construction. He is a genuinely "good guy" who has performed well each of the three times hes been on the ballot in Adams County.
Baca, Chair of the County Commission, has been a long-stnading fixture in Adams County politics/public service for well over 20 years. She comes from a farming family near Brighton She was just elected to her second term on the committsion by nearly 10 points (this includes the "red" portion of Adams county that is not in the 8th CD).
I'd hate to have to choose between the two, but givent the demographic make up of the district, I'd likely lean Baca.
Did Caraveo take herself out of a possible rematch in two years?
She's not.
I’m wondering if anyone has some insight into the efficacy of the Caraveo campaign? I was surprised that none of the canvassing doors I had for the last two weekends had been contacted before. But, I heard that lots of volunteers along the Front Range had been assigned to CD8. Did she run a competent ground campaign?