July 26, 2012 09:24 PM UTC

Poll: Which Presidential Candidate will Win Jeffco?

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• by: Colorado Pols

In 2008, Barack Obama trounced John McCain in Jefferson County, winning with 53% of the vote. Then, in 2010, US Senator Michael Bennet took the county by a much closer margin, defeating Republican Ken Buck 48% to 46%. While Democrats have indeed enjoyed a few good years in Jeffco, the fact remains that this county is anything but safe for the president.

Indeed, there are nearly 20,000 more registered Republicans here than there are Democrats. To win, then, both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will have to court the 180,000 unaffiliated voters who call Jeffco home while at the same time turning out their respective bases in droves. Turnout is key, particularly for the Obama campaign, because many unaffiliated voters lean to the right — as evidenced that former Commissioner Kathy Hartman was the first (and last) Democrat elected to the down-ballot County Commission in 14 years.

As always, Jeffco is going to be competitive: a swing county in a swing state in a fierce cycle. Mitt Romney opened his first campaign office in the entire state here last month, signaling the start of both presidential campaigns’ intense focus in the area. It’s unlikely, after all, that either candidate can win Colorado’s nine electoral votes without winning Jefferson County.

We want to know, who do you think will win Jeffco? We’ve included a poll after the jump. Remember, this isn’t a preference poll. To that end, we’ve only included Obama and Romney — yes, we know some of you may hope a third party candidate will score big here, but he or she patently will not win. Never fear; you’ll have your say when we feature a preference poll down the line.  

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