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June 12, 2014 10:41 AM UTC
23 Comments
Cantor did not loose because of immigration
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning firm, released a poll completed last Monday, the day before Cantor lost the primary, and it appears the narrative that he lost due to his moderation on immigraiton is baseless. The poll was taken in the 7th congressional district, the one Cantor represents. The poll results show Cantor's approval rating at 30% and disapproval of how he was handling his job at a whopping 63%. The numbers for the House Republican leadership are even worse. 26% approve of the way the leadership is handling the job and 67% disapprove.
The numbers for immigration are exactly the opposite and stunning. 72% of the voters support the bipartisan immigration bill now before the Congress with 23% of the 7th CD voters opposing it. 84% of the 448 voters polled believe it is important or very important to take action on the immigration issue. If immigraiton was an issue in Cantor's defeat, it may be that he was perceived as someone, who because he is in leadership, had failed to take action on an issue the voters thought he should.
Overall, the poll shows Cantor was unpopular in the 7th CD but his moderation on immigration certainly wasn't the cause of his defeat.
The lesson here, based on PPP's poll, is Republicans should continue to moderate on the immigraiton issue. I still believe Tancredo will win the primary here in Colorado but it won't be because of his hardline stance on immigration. He'll win that kind of GOP voters for sure, but his win will be because the crowded field will chop up the vote so he can win with a plurality.
Good analysis, R36.
Thank you MJ.
By the way, the PPP poll makes Congressman Lamborn's panicked announcement yesterday look foolish.
And this is new how?
I'm pretty sure part of Lamborn's job personalized description says "make yourself look foolish at least once per month".
One observation: the poll found 23 percent opposed the immigration bill. That was the Republican primary electorate, the crazies who turned out. They disapprove of Cantor because they believe he rolled over to Obama and sold them out on the debt ceiling and government shutdown. The district-in-general poll is interesting, but the district-in-general didn't vote in the GOP primary.
Good point. Primaries are often about which candidate has the most enthusiastic supporters, not necessarily the one with soft support from a larger number, as turn out is comparatively low and confined to those who really take an interest.
Here in Colorado where we have a caucus system and primary system, you see the same dynamic as you get to an even smaller scale, more dedicated group. Often the winner of the caucus doesn't win the primary because those who attend caucus through state convention are much fewer and more actively political than by the broader base then a candidate the hard core base isn't so crazy about. And the smaller you get the harder it is to know how to model reliable polls.
That said, I completely agree with Rep 36 that there were plenty of other factors at work in the Cantor debacle. And the internal polling was obviously exceptionally incompetent.
Another poll of *just* GOP voters confirms the PPP general electorate results:
But, as we have often seen, a crowded primary field tends to net a party a weak general election candidate due to the win by plurality.
Democrats should keep steering right…..eventually they'll get the gunrack/confederate flag vote they've been longing for.
So what you're saying is that ideological purity trumps actually holding office?
I hate putting words in people's mouths, so let me know.
If that 's really what you're saying, you've adequately explained to everyone why I'm unaffiliated. Radical ideologues on both sides of the political spectrum make me want to puke.
Otto vom Bismarck once said, "Politics is the art of the possible." For things to be possible, one has to actually hold office.
Of course, if you'd rather than be right than in power, I fully understand. Just don't ask me for money.
Beauprez and Tancredo are both tainted with Cantor ties.
And then there's Gessler. The man who spent millions chasing down 10's of thousands!, uh, several thousand!, wait no, hundreds!, aw shoot!, 3 (maybe) fraudulent votes in the last 4 years.
Millions? Now you're the one being silly.
Hahahahahahaha! This from the pearl-clutcher who proclaimed that what ever Gessler spent was worth it because even 1 fraudulent vote endangered the entire electoral process?
Gessler has a demonstrated history of pissing away money. Please honor the first law of holes. Otherwise we might have to school you with his request to the JBC.
Don't make me break out some budget statistics. You'll regret it.
Here's the short version: Gessler has a 5 million budget hole, which he asked the Colorado legislature to fill. He's the only Secretary of State ever to have this problem, as the State department is self -funding from business, political, and organization filing fees.
Causes were predominantly the fee holiday he put in place, and by the way, he's doing it again! A little budget-busting welcome gift for Joe Neguse!
but I found that he had also racked up an average 326,000 per year in unnecessary legal fees for the six years he's been in office, including $238,000 litigating his $1300 petty-cash dip, which led to his infamous ethics complaint. The rest were pretty much all Gessler trying hard to suppress voters in various ways.
Damn…I guess I busted out some numbers, anyway. So basically what you have in Gessler is a businessman who blows his budget unnecessarily, spends department funds on his own expenses, treats his clients (Colorado voters) like crap, and then blames other people (Democrats).
And now he is the guy who is going to go out the door and leave a big stinking budget hole for Joe Neguse to fill. Fabulous.
Correction: 4 years in office for Gessler (elected in 2010). But, the two years previous, Sec State Buescher had to deal with bogus lawsuits from Hackstaff/Gessler attorneys acting for Independence Institute and Marks' BS.
So Gessler was still indirectly involved in and profiting from voter suppression litigation early on, although he wasn't elected at that point.
And yet, each one is doing better than Scotty.
The poll that matters is June 24th. Gessler will win that one. And then let's talk.
That is some serious denial, dude.
Ironically, the only way Gessler stands a chance is with rampant voter fraud.
Moddy needs a new lover.
Well that's what you're getting Modster. And I bet you'll find it in your heart to vote for Tanc if he's your party's choice. Hope it's not too late to get your money back for the Gessler for Governor T-shirts and stuff.