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March 02, 2009 09:29 PM UTC

Penry for Governor? Um, No

  • 28 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry is apparently beginning to seriously engage in discussions about running for Governor, and may soon file paperwork to make it official. Penry is doing this quietly while he tries to gauge support for a potential run against Gov. Bill Ritter, and trying to keep this quiet is probably the smartest thing Penry has done in months.

Our prediction? Penry doesn’t actually end up running for Governor in 2010. And here’s why…

Penry has long been touted by Republicans as a “rising star” in the Party, but like many “rising stars” who have come before him (from both parties), Penry’s just not ready to move from “rising” to actual “star.”

We know what some of you conspiracy theorists might think – that say this because we think Penry is actually the toughest candidate to potentially challenge Ritter and we’re trying to tear him down before that happens. Quite the contrary, in fact. As it stands now, Penry would be one of the weakest candidates Republicans could put forth in 2010 because he is absolutely not what they need to lead the ticket.

To be sure, Penry has enjoyed a swift rise among the GOP. But what we have learned from his brief time thus far as Senate Minority Leader is that he’s not young and fresh – he’s young and old. He may be young (he’s 33), but Penry is actually no different in political philosophy or leadership than any of the other right-wing failures that have damaged the GOP in recent years. Republicans have not adjusted to the changing political climate in Colorado by running moderate candidates; instead, they have trotted out old-school right-wing thinkers with no new ideas like Bob Schaffer, only to watch them get pummeled in the general election by Democrats who are able to appear more moderate than they might actually be.

A Penry candidacy would be the same thing in different packaging. By refusing to lead his caucus in deflecting the terribly damaging comments made last week by Sens. Scott Renfroe and Dave Schultheis, Penry showed that he a) isn’t ready to lead his own caucus, much less an entire state, and b) his ideology is really little different from the right-wing of the party. That’s a not a good combination for a candidate for Governor.

Or consider what we wrote last summer when we discussed “The Political Death of Josh Penry“:

We wrote earlier this week about Republican Sen. Josh Penry’s bizarre comments about his plan to divert state money to speed up a section of I-70 in his district. Penry’s quote basically amounted to saying that he thinks voters would prefer to see an improved I-70 than to preserve their water resources.

The plan devised by Penry and fellow “wunderkind” Cory Gardner is basically an “earmark,” which is something that is normally reserved for members of congress and less often seen by state legislators. Whether it passes or fails – and it’s almost certainly going to fail – Penry and Gardner just irrevocably damaged their future political careers. For a quick primer, see how The Denver Post rips into their idea today:

Coloradans deserve reasonable solutions to our state’s transportation problems.

Instead, we’re left with either nothing, which has been the governor’s plan the past two years, or schemes, including this latest Republican plan that actually drains funds from Colorado water projects into a single pork-barrel project on Interstate 70.

The more Penry tries to do, the more it becomes obvious that the would-be emperor has no clothes. Does this mean that Penry will never be Governor of Colorado? Of course not, but it does mean that he is absolutely not ready to run for Governor or any other statewide office in the near future. Penry is going nowhere until he either moves to the middle, which isn’t likely to happen, or Colorado moves back to the right, which isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

If Penry does attempt a run for Governor, where is his base? It’s no secret that the business community is not all that impressed with Penry, particularly given his laughably-stupid ballot measure plan last fall. Penry is a career politician who hasn’t done anything else of note outside of the legislature. It’s also no secret that the moderate branch of the party – what’s left of it, anyway – considers Penry to be just another right-wing soldier. Penry may or may not be well-liked along the Western Slope, but who cares? Nearly 90 percent of Colorado voters live along the Front Range between Ft. Collins and Pueblo. Being a Western Slope candidate doesn’t mean anything anymore, and the numbers prove that out.

Even if Penry were to somehow win a primary against Marc Holtzman, which we don’t think he could, he could only do it by running as far to the right as possible. That would leave a general election of a younger Bob Schaffer (ideology-wise) against the moderate Ritter. It’s not hard to predict who wins that one.

All of this leads back to our first prediction – that Penry won’t actually run for governor. Our guess is that he dips his toes in the water with pressure from Dick Wadhams, who also doesn’t understand that Colorado has shifted politically, but ultimately finds that he won’t be able to raise the money or generate the support needed to win both a Republican primary and a general election. He’ll stay where he is and make the safe decision to run for re-election in 2010 instead.

In some ways, Penry is in the wrong place at the wrong time. If Penry had been a 33-year-old Senate leader for the GOP eight years ago, he might have been the perfect candidate to head a statewide ticket. But things have changed a lot in the last decade, and Penry has not. He had a chance as Senate Minority Leader to show bold, innovative leadership for the GOP. But he didn’t. Penry is what he is, which isn’t what works in Colorado right now.

 

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28 thoughts on “Penry for Governor? Um, No”

  1. I think if Penry is as politically savvy as the GOP seems to think he is, then he will wait until 2014 to run for Governor.

    He had the fortune of being in the minority party last election, so his A-52 loss won’t cost him anything politically (unlike Romanoff on A-59, and Ritter on A-58.) But that doesn’t mean his idea was any less stupid, or that he didn’t fail outright.

    One thing Penry’s candidacy (if it got that far) might do is split the field between the far-right candidates and allow Don Marostica to come through the middle. Somehow I doubt Wadhams would allow that to happen though.

    1. This will haunt him like Ref. A haunted many other Republicans for a long time. Whether it passed or failed was irrelevant – you can run ads about it forever.

      1. Trying to mess with the water is a capital offense in rural Colorado. You are correct: people have very long memories when it comes to water. Just ask Greg Walcher.

      2. I guess I forgot just how much of a caterwauling shit storm A-52 really was.

        It messed with water, redirected severance taxes without raising them to normal levels, did nothing to improve congestion on I-70, and if you ask me had the ultimate goal of putting the money into the hands of Penry’s pals over at the Colorado Asphalt Pavement Association.

        1. … and it was actually ‘caterwauling shit blizzard’.  Anyway, that line was the best of the best, no dishonor in copying it sometimes, but lets give it the reverence it deserves and only use it for truly special occasions.

          What exactly is raising taxes to “normal levels”? Forget tax increases. They are counter-productive. Make the government we have work better, or make it smaller. The private sector cannot support the government at these levels going forward. Nor does the private sector want to.

          And, I am in agreement on the kudos for pols. Good well-considered analysis by pols is appreciated. If I want partisan crap without objectivity, I can get that anywhere.

          1. Make the government we have work better, or make it smaller. The private sector cannot support the government at these levels going forward. Nor does the private sector want to.

            This isn’t about the private sector in general. This is about oil and gas companies getting a walk on their severance tax rates in Colorado. Most of our surrounding states (states that are led by small government Republicans incidentally) have much higher severance taxes. If Utah and Wyoming can have realistic rates, then we can too.

            I’m confused though, are you saying A-52 was a good idea? Or did you just see the phrase “tax increase” and start typing furiously?

            As far as characterizing anything as a caterwauling shit blizzard, I’ll be the judge of what is and isn’t an appropriate situation. Maybe I’ll just refer to A-52 as a clusterfuck of horrible policy from now on.

    2. Maybe Marostica should switch to Unaffiliated now, avoid a primary altogether, and use his personal wealth and contacts to run down the middle as an Unaffiliated candidate.  If he gets most of the U’s, a big slice of the moderate R’s, and a few of the conservative D’s he could pull it off.  Not as long a shot as Jesse Ventura in Minn.?

      1. ‘member Eric Eidness, John Anderson, H Ross Perot … well.

        You need 70% the U’s and a 20% each of the GOP and Dems to make a go of it.

        Frankly it will be difficult for anybody but Ritter. His polls are not under 50%, great name ID, popular in a general sense (has low negatives) and the Democrat Party still retains a massive generic ballot advantage.

        Any Dem, Unaffil, or GOPer needs to face reality; be it the general or primary, the Guv will be very tough.

        Picture Owens with Bush parachuting in, now picture Ritter with Obama parachuting in … I think you see my point.

  2. Good story Pols.

    I think that you are right on.  If Penry runs this time, it will be too soon.  Many see Penry as a RISING star, meaning that he’s not there just yet.  He will have a hard time raising money and would do more damage to himself by pushing things too soon.

    He’s 33.  He should wait.

  6. is not his only failures.  His opposition to Ref C alienated the business community and moderate R’s.  His caterwauling shit blizzards against immigration reform and alliance with the “Mi-nute Men” alienated the Hispanic community.  His alliance with Janet “Bestiality” Rowland and his support for teaching creationism in our schools alienated secularists, the gay and lesbian community and supporters of our US Constitution.  His inability to get along with others, displayed by his obstructionism this past month in the legislature, has angered many government officials.  His actions, or lack thereof, and passive agreement with bigoted statements this past week, pissed off many sane, thinking people in Colorado. He has angered people in his hometown R caucus and his temper really boiled the blood of media people.  His working for out-of-state interests, instead of the people of Colorado, has exposed his true purposes in political life.

    Penry has a long list of failures.  Does anyone want to bet against the list getting longer before the 2012 election?  Once the people of Colorado get to know who he really is, instead of just hearing the word of some extremist Mesa County R’s, then that “star” will quickly fade to a self consuming black hole.

      1. about the CD3 race.  I believe Penry’s immediate slim chance for higher office lies there.  This is just projection and difficult to predict right now, but if he wins his Senate seat in 2010, which is probable, then runs for CD3 in 2012 win or lose, it will give him the name recognition he needs and will leave 2 years for extremists to prep him for a 2014 governor race.  Of course, we do not know who will be running on the D ticket in either race, but all the more reason to believe Penry’s sights are set on CD3.  If he won the CD3 race, it would be his stepping stone for a later governor race.  After all, he is just an ignorant youngster with many years ahead.  

        1. His name is John Salazar, who is in his mid 50s and is newly on the House Appropriations Committee. Nobody gets appointed to that one unless they plan to stay around a good long while.

          Josh will have to wait until Salazar retires, because he has no realistic chance of beating him in the 3rd.

  7. The GOP needs to run their best right-wing candidate. Someone who is eloquent, young, and runs as a true conservative. A person where all the nuts on the right are thrilled with every single thing about the candidate.

    And then when Bill Ritter trounces him, the GOP will start to realize that what they’re selling the voters are no longer buying.

    2. These idiots think they are the majority and its only the RINO’s muddying their message that is the problem.  Well, maybe Marilyn Musgrave knows better now, but the rest don’t.

  8. I’m thinking he needs a day job with better income than he makes in the Legislature.

    Is there an open county supe seat he could chase?  

    I haven’t been watching him enough to know if he’s got the …ego to think he can jump from jr first termer to Governor in such a short time.  It’s definitely a better paycheck.

    But shouldn’t he actually ranch some cows or bison or start a bank or something first?

    I’m guessing he won’t be building any dams nor raising any fees. Likewise- I doubt he’ll propose any real cuts in state expenditure.

  9. What a joke.  Penry has never managed anything or anyone.  How is he to manage a bureaucracy, no less a State?  He’s 33 and has only done politics and throw footballs his whole life.  At least Ritter managed a DA’s office, saw the harsh underbelly of the State, and has compassion from working in Zambia.  Penry has done nothing and will be nothing.  He’d be a fool to run.

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