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This is it, folks. Election day is tomorrow! If you haven’t dropped off your ballot yet, don’t worry, we’ve got a list of voter service centers where you too can take part in the Democratic process.

While your actual ballot should contain votes for the candidate you want to win the election, we want to know who you think will win.  We’re not asking which candidate you think will govern better or who would be a more influential Mayor. Instead, we’re asking you whose campaign has better resonated with the voters of Denver.

Chris Romer has impeccable name ID and his father has been lending his name and time to the campaign. Romer’s been able to finance a final field push (in part because of the depth of his own pockets) and that may make the difference. We’ve heard from countless voters that they don’t like negative campaigning and that they’ve soured on Chris Romer, but going negative is always much more effective than it should be.

Michael Hancock has really impressed us with his media savvy and a lot of his campaign team. He’s done a remarkable job of competing with Romer, something we didn’t think he’d be able to do. Still, Hancock has had to defend himself on issues ranging from pay raises to taxis to creationism in schools, and we know that constantly playing defense isn’t the best way to win a campaign.

What say you, Polsters? Who will win one of Colorado’s most visible elected positions? We’ve covered the entirety of the campaign; now we want to hear from you.  

We were a bit surprised at City Council District 1 candidate Ken Padilla‘s strong showing in the first round of the election, but not too surprised. After all, Padilla had heavy support from AFSCME that really made the difference in such a crowded race.

It’s not as though Padilla’s opponent, Susan Shepard, isn’t without her own union backing. We’ve heard from reliable sources that she was expecting the AFSCME endorsement until Ken jumped into the race. She didn’t get that endorsement, obviously, but she did score one from the Firefighters Local 858 earlier in the year. She’s also following up the Firefighters with backing from the Denver Police Protective Association and the Fraternal Order of Police Sheriffs #27. From a press release we received from the Shepard campaign:

Firefighters and Police Say Shepherd is the Public Safety Candidate in District 1

Denver, CO – Denver City Council District 1 candidate Susan Shepherd is proud to accept the endorsements of the Denver Firefighters Local 858, Denver Police Protective Association, and the Fraternal Order of Police Sheriffs Lodge 27.  Susan will work to keep officers on the streets and to make sure that our firefighters continue to have the resources they need to protect our citizens.

“As a strong advocate for public safety, Susan Shepherd will ensure that the safety of the citizens and the Firefighters will never be jeopardized by closing fire stations or eliminating fire trucks. She will also make sure that our minimum staffing needs are met on a daily basis throughout the city,” says Derrick Delgado, Denver Firefighter, and Resident of City Council District 1.

“Susan is the best choice for Northwest Denver’s public safety.  She has demonstrated that she will listen to the citizens and work with the department to get the community the necessary resources to maintain essential services,” says Nick Rogers, President of Denver Police Protective Association.

“Our public safety officials are crucial to keeping our residents safe.  I am honored to have the endorsement of the men and women who put their lives on the line every day make this a great place to live and raise a family.  I look forward to working with them to make Denver even safer,” says Susan Shepherd.

Susan Shepherd is in a run-off election for Denver City Council District 1 on June 7th.

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Shepard is smart to paint herself as the “public safety” candidate. Voters react well to those they’ll think will protect their property and lives, and this kind of endorsement counters Ken’s AFSCME support from an image perspective. Of course, who knows if Shepard will get any much needed field help. That’s what she needs to win, and we’re close enough to election day that a candidate’s image isn’t as relevant as their ability to share it with voters as ballots are filled out.    

We’ve said it time and time again; what makes Michael Hancock most appealing as a candidate is the narrative he, and only he, is able to tell. It’s a very inspirational story, and while it won’t sway many hard-core politicos, we think it’s gripping enough to win over more than a few undecided voters.

Of course, in order to capitalize on his rich history, Hancock has to make sure the electorate hears about it. Election day just a week away, and we think the smartest move Hancock can make as voters cast their ballots is to remind them about who he is and where he’s come from.

Lo and behold, that’s just what the Hancock campaign is doing with its latest, and likely last, television spot.

Like always, we’re incredibly impressed with the media savvy behind Hancock’s television team. The candidate himself may be prone to a few gaffes and slip-ups here and there, but no matter what, Hancock has had an amazingly solid, creative, and forward thinking group putting together his television ads. They’ve displayed a unity that has woven Michael’s personal narrative into a political fabric, and they’ve done a great job at making Hancock look like a statesman even amid well-founded attacks.

We think this is a good ad for Hancock to be running at this point in time. It definitely has a wow factor that Romer will never be able to match. In fact, the only question we had while watching it was how long Hancock was sitting on that archival news footage; it’s an amazing kicker that builds up Hancock as a potential Mayor while matching some of the pedigree gifted to Romer by his father’s last name. In short, it makes Hancock look like someone who should be Mayor of Denver, and who’s been working his entire life to do the best for his city and his community.

It’s the twilight of the election; ballots are being returned en masse. We know Chris Romer is running a massive field campaign to try and narrow Hancock’s perceived lead in the polls. Even if Hancock won’t be able to match that GOTV effort, he’s certainly doing more than he needs to with adverts like these.

The real question is whether or not his story will be enough to win it.  

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: the biggest obstacle to Michael Hancock‘s mayoral campaign was his ill-advised pay raise vote. That same vote has allowed Chris Romer to frame his whole campaign as of late on attacking Michael Hancock and his “irresponsibility” in handling the city budget.

For Hancock to win, then, he needs to establish an antidote to Romer’s attacks. Well, if you’ve been watching any local television for the past couple of days, you’ll know he’s trying:

It’s a start. It’s a beautiful ad, the best that Hancock’s run thus far, which is really saying something. It goes further than the other spot Hancock is running in tandem at defining Michael as a candidate. It certainly addresses Romer’s attacks on the pay raise vote, but does it do enough? It’s a big move for Hancock to admit to that pay raise vote, and it certainly shows his campaign is cognizant of the effectiveness of Romer’s negative advertising.

Unfortunately, negative campaigning works. Hancock can wax on about the fact that he refuses to run a negative campaign, and that’s admirable. What this specific spot doesn’t do, however, is effectively convey to voters why Hancock thought it responsible to vote for a pay raise for city workers.  He admits to the vote and he gives some reasoning, but not enough to totally negate Romer’s attacks, which is what Hancock must do as a candidate. If this is Hancock’s first attempt at remedying the perception of that vote, then it’s a brilliant first step. If it’s all his campaign will be doing to counter Romer’s ads, then it really isn’t enough. In fact, it almost seems as though Hancock is only running this advertisement because he’s being attacked, not because he stands by the principles behind his vote. We think voters will notice that. Hancock also notes that it’s difficult to balance the city budget, but doesn’t describe how the pay-raise lent itself to that effort.

Romer’s campaign has also shown that it’s willing to go negative in this race. Unfortunately for Hancock, the pay-raise vote isn’t the only thing he’s going to have to defend.  

We touched on this in a post earlier today, but we think it warrants another. From a press release we received from Michael Hancock‘s campaign:

City Leaders Stand United to Endorse Hancock

Today many of Denver’s most prominent elected officials affirmed their strong support for Michael Hancock to be Denver’s next mayor. Since announcing his candidacy in November, Michael has steadily garnered the endorsement and support from a critical mass of Denver’s leaders.

“I have worked with Michael for eight years,” Councilman Charlie Brown said. “He’s sure and he’s steady, and that beats fast and reckless every time. We need a mayor who will be bold without being reckless.  Michael’s actions will be tempered by his time on City Council. Michael may have a calm demeanor, but when the decisions call for it, he will be a “cowboy tough” mayor.”

Michael’s newest endorsements today included City Council members Paul Lopez, Charlie Brown,Marcia Johnson, Peggy Lehmann and Judy Montero, City Councilman-elect Chris Herndon, former RTD Board Member and city council candidate Chris Martinez and former City Council at-large candidates Josh Davies and Rich Gonzalez.

The endorsers pledged their support and vote for Michael because they know and trust his leadership.  They believe that Michael is the right choice to continue to work with the city to build Denver, bringing every one to the table to make the tough decisions and eliminate the budget deficits.

A flood of city leaders have previously come out in strong support of Michael and his vision for Denver, including Former Mayor Wellington Webb, City Council members at-large and former mayoral candidates Carol Boigon and Doug Linkhart, former City Councilwomen Elbra Wedgeworth and Happy Haynes and Denver School Board Members Theresa Pena and Mary Seawell.

It’s clear that Hancock’s trying to send the message that he has the support of most of the City Council. But is that really the best message to be sending?

On one hand, Hancock is now able to show that Romer isn’t the best person to lead Denver because “the people who know Denver best,” its policymakers and leaders, support Hancock.

On the other hand, is it beneficial to be the “insider’s choice” particularly when those insiders supported Hancock’s biggest Achilles Heel: the pay raise vote?

Ultimately, it’s a question over which polls better. Hancock is now able to portray himself as a trusted voice of the people who know Denver. He’s able to in some ways frame his candidacy as a continuation of the Hickenlooper years. That’s strikingly powerful. Unfortunately, in doing so, it allows Romer to take on the role of the “outsider.” It’s ironic, because few would consider Romer to have any standing as anything other than the status quo, but Hancock may have given Romer that card to play.

Hancock and his team may be confident enough in their data and polling to assume that being the insider’s choice is the best message. On the other hand, it may be the only message they’ve got for now, and so they’re riding it as a positive until Romer turns it into a negative, as he’s already doing.

What say you, Polsters?

Folks, we’ve officially reached the point in the election cycle where campaigns will throw whatever they find at the wall in the hopes that something, anything, may stick for even just a moment.

Case in point, this interesting press release from Michael Hancock‘s campaign:

With Election Day under two weeks away, mayoral candidate Michael Hancock today announced the endorsements of the Colorado Black Professional Firefighters and Eritrian Community of Colorado.

The Eritrian Community of Colorado is an organization that represents the interest of those in Denver and Colorado who are of Eritrian heritage.

“Michael Hancock is the right man to move the city forward,” said Tarke Teku, Chairman of the Eritrian Community of Colorado. “He has the right ideas to jumpstart our economy and to improve our neighborhood schools. His openness and willingness to bring all communities to the table to discuss the important issues is what separates Michael form the rest of the field.”

Wait a second, what? We had no idea there even was an “Eritrean Community of Colorado,” let alone know of anybody who would be swayed by their endorsement. The fact of the matter is that if you told 10 people about Michael Hancock’s Eritrean endorsement, 10 out of 10 would say “the what?”

We’re a little surprised that this organization exists. Do you think it’s an actual organization, or just some guy in a Denver office somewhere who just speaks for all of the Eritreans in Colorado? Is there a vote? Does the rest of the Eritrean community know this guy is making endorsements? How many Eritrean voters are there in Denver? 10? 20? 100? We really have no idea.

But wait, it gets better. We managed to find the Eritrean Community in Colorado’s website. Needless to say, if you loved web design in the early 1990s or ever spent a lot of time on Geocities, this website’s for you.

That said, the Eritrean Community in Colorado refers to itself as the Eritrean Community in Colorado. Hancock’s press release spelled it, in each reference, as the Eritrian Community in Colorado. Folks, if you can’t even spell the organization’s name right in your press release, the endorsement doesn’t really matter, does it?

Further, according to the same website, the ECC is a nonprofit organization that is “free of any political, governmental, and religious affiliations.” Probably not the best idea to endorse a candidate then, right?

From what we can tell, the ECC is a nonprofit corporation. If they were a 501c3, though, they wouldn’t even be able to endorse Hancock without losing their tax-exempt status. Let’s hope for both the candidate and his Eritrean (Eritrian?) supporters that this incredibly meaningful endorsement doesn’t come at great cost.