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HD-3 is Statesman’s “Top Race to Watch.”

The race between incumbent Dem Dan Kagan and Republican Brian Watson is something of a bellwether race for the legislature this year. Because the House GOP is just one seat away from ceding the speaker’s gavel to Mark Ferrandino, Republicans simply have to win against Kagan in order to compensate for inevitable losses caused by both redistricting and horrible candidates. A Republican win against Kagan also presages victory in other competitive seats across the state: if the moderate Watson is able to beat the incumbent Kagan, Democrats like Max Tyler in Jeffco and Linda Newell in Littleton might also find themselves without an office under the golden dome.

It’s fitting, then, that the Colorado Statesman’s Ernest Luning lists the HD-3 race as August’s top legislative race to watch:

1. House District 3

Incumbent Democratic state Rep. Daniel Kagan vs. Republican challenger Brian Watson (up from No. 2 last month)

Both parties’ legislative campaign operations point to their respective candidates in this south-suburban swing district as their star contenders this year, and with good reason. Watson was the first Republican candidate to make the top-tier of the state GOP’s Trailblazers program, passing benchmarks in fundraising and voter-contact, and Kagan is regularly used as an example of the Democrats’ best fundraiser and organizer. Early returns from this district could portend which way Colorado is heading on election night.

Who won the month: Watson is already mailing into the district and whispers that he could be ready to unleash TV ads against Kagan, though Democrats counter that Kagan has the strongest field operation in the state.

HD 3 race profile:

Geography: Northwestern Arapahoe County, covering Englewood, Cherry Hills Village, Greenwood Village and parts of Littleton

Active Democrats: 11,535 (31.9%)

Active Republicans: 13,016 (36.0%)

Active Unaffiliateds: 11,264 (31.2%)

Total active voters: 36,154

Hispanic population: 15.91%

• Bennet won the current district with 50.25% to Buck’s 44.71%; Kennedy won with 50.94% to Stapleton’s 49.06%; Bosley won with 50.02% to Hart’s 44.80%

• Kagan raised $84,131 and Watson raised $134,895 through the end of July. On Aug. 1, Kagan reported $55,369 cash on hand, and Watson had $62,343. Total raised for this race through July: $213,706; total spent: $100,005.

Because Kagan is known to work the hardest when the pressure is on and because Watson appears to be doing everything right — no small feat for a first-time candidate, no matter how much party support he’s receiving — this race will probably stay at or near the top of the Statesman’s list for the remaining few months before the election.

That is, of course, barring the discovery of the proverbial “dead girl or live boy.

Poll: Which Presidential Candidate will Win Jeffco?

In 2008, Barack Obama trounced John McCain in Jefferson County, winning with 53% of the vote. Then, in 2010, US Senator Michael Bennet took the county by a much closer margin, defeating Republican Ken Buck 48% to 46%. While Democrats have indeed enjoyed a few good years in Jeffco, the fact remains that this county is anything but safe for the president.

Indeed, there are nearly 20,000 more registered Republicans here than there are Democrats. To win, then, both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will have to court the 180,000 unaffiliated voters who call Jeffco home while at the same time turning out their respective bases in droves. Turnout is key, particularly for the Obama campaign, because many unaffiliated voters lean to the right — as evidenced that former Commissioner Kathy Hartman was the first (and last) Democrat elected to the down-ballot County Commission in 14 years.

As always, Jeffco is going to be competitive: a swing county in a swing state in a fierce cycle. Mitt Romney opened his first campaign office in the entire state here last month, signaling the start of both presidential campaigns’ intense focus in the area. It’s unlikely, after all, that either candidate can win Colorado’s nine electoral votes without winning Jefferson County.

We want to know, who do you think will win Jeffco? We’ve included a poll after the jump. Remember, this isn’t a preference poll. To that end, we’ve only included Obama and Romney — yes, we know some of you may hope a third party candidate will score big here, but he or she patently will not win. Never fear; you’ll have your say when we feature a preference poll down the line.  

Gessler’s partisan antics are bad, but when he’s also wrong, it’s worse

In a blog post yesterday, I offered some fresh examples of how, when Scott Gessler is on right-wing radio, he often sounds just like the right-wing radio host, bashing Democrats. That’s not good, if you’re the Secretary of State, because you’re supposed to be above the partisan fray, at least somewhat, so that people trust […]

First Romney Campaign Office Now Open in Jeffco

Jefferson County promises to be a battleground county in a battleground state this election cycle, with the Obama campaign jockeying to perform as well as it did in 2008 — when then-Senator Obama swept the county by nearly 10 percentage points. For its part, the Romney campaign is making every effort to reduce and overcome those numbers in 2012. If Obama loses Jefferson County, after all, there’s a good chance he loses the White House along with it: a loss in Jeffco is attendant of a loss in nearly every competitive district across the country.

Well aware of that fact, then, the Romney campaign selected Jeffco as the home of its first campaign office in Colorado.

From the Colorado Statesman’s Ernest Luning:

With just over four months to go until the November election, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign finally has an office of its own in Colorado.

“It is an exciting day because today we have the opportunity to kick off the Romney campaign in Colorado officially, with the opening of the statewide headquarters for Romney Victory,” said state Republican Party Chairman Ryan Call, welcoming roughly 200 supporters on Saturday to the campaign’s spacious digs in the Denver West office park in Lakewood.

Surrounded by candidates for offices ranging from county commissioner to Congress, Call said that the office will serve as headquarters for Republican campaigns from president all the way down to the local level.

As Luning points out, the Romney campaign is still playing catch-up to Obama’s team in field efforts: the president’s campaign has already opened 13 offices in Colorado, with more on the way.

Still, that the Romney campaign selected Jefferson County as the location for its first campaign office in Colorado highlights the amount of time and money Romney (and outside groups) will be spending in the region. While that will certainly impact the presidential race at the top of the ballot, it will also bolster Republican candidates down-ticket, especially in some of the area’s most competitive seats.

If Romney takes Jeffco, then, there’s a good chance that Republicans will be welcoming Lang Sias and Ken Summers into the State Senate. But if Obama comes anywhere close to his 2008 numbers, State Senator Evie Hudak will be joined in that chamber by Andy Kerr.  

Cody McNutt Now Staffing Lang Sias

Former Arvada City Council candidate Cody McNutt has pivoted from his loss last year and is now working as the field director on Lang Sias‘ bid for the SD-19 seat against Evie Hudak.

McNutt scored 45% of the vote in 2011, losing to incumbent City Councilman Mark McGoff by about 500 votes. McNutt ran a decent campaign. Sure, he made a couple major mistakes, but we heard good things about McNutt’s ground game. His campaign was doomed from the outset, but it was a good foray into politics for the twenty-something first time candidate.

That said, finding a few friends to knock on doors for your upstart city council bid is a lot different than recruiting volunteers for an expansive State Senate race. We’re not sure that McNutt’s skills as a candidate will translate well into working on someone else’s campaign, especially given his incredibly odd personality.  McNutt’s enthusiasm may be charming when he appears on your doorstep as a candidate, but in a campaign as competitive as Sias’, perhaps someone a little less caustic and with a little more experience would be a better fit to manage field efforts.  

UPDATED w/ Poll: Frackin’ HELL YEAH!-When the North Fork Roared

UPDATED AND ALL THAT…THURS, MAY 3 Colorado’s North Fork Valley–with the highest concentration of organic farms in the state and one of only two American Viticultural Areas in Colorado–did it.  It forced the BLM to back off and back down.  The agency is not giving up the details of what the final thing was that […]

Welcome, Anti-Labuda Literature Recipients!

It’s because there’s something so compelling about Corrie Houck‘s primary challenge to incumbent HD-1 Rep. Jeanne Labuda that we’ve devoted several pieces to profiling that race. Houck and Labuda, remember, were previously on relatively good terms – Houck was heavily involved in HD-1 leadership while Labuda sat in the HD-1 seat. That Houck is primarying Labuda despite, or perhaps because of, their relationship makes for good political fodder. It’s almost as if it were a campaign between spurned lovers.  Indeed, there’s something enthralling about any surprise primary – take Brian Carroll’s campaign against Andy Kerr in Jeffco or Marsha Looper’s challenge to Amy Stephens in El Paso County.

The Houck campaign, it seems, has turned that same political fodder into political grapeshot of sorts.

From The Colorado Statesman’s Ernest Luning:

Saying she “wanted to counter a few things said about me by my opponent,” Houck blasted Labuda’s charge that a primary fight was “opening the doors for a Republican to win this seat,” displaying a chart that showed Democrats making up 45 percent of the district’s voters, overwhelming the 25-percent Republican registration.

“It’s almost mathematically impossible for a Republican to take over this seat, and it was purposely designed to be a safe seat,” Houck said.

Further, Houck contended, if Democrats were worried about losing the seat, Labuda’s House colleagues and state party leadership would have rallied around the incumbent the way they did around state Rep. Andy Kerr, D-Lakewood, when a primary challenger emerged last fall.

“If I was disrupting the party out here, don’t you think someone would be intervening in this situation?” Houck asked.

A Democratic official told The Colorado Statesman that Kerr’s situation provoked an unusual response precisely because he represents a Jefferson County swing district – potentially tougher to keep in the Democratic column if a primary had drained resources – and cautioned against drawing any conclusion other than that the party was decidedly neutral in the HD 1 primary.

Labuda fired back by slamming a pair of blog posts reprinted from the political sites Colorado Pols and Denver Pols that were included in a packet of campaign material Houck handed to delegates. One of the anonymous posts claimed that the House Majority Project, an organization charged with electing Democrats, was forced to divert funds to defend Labuda’s seat against a Republican challenger in 2010, possibly costing the party control of the chamber by a single seat.

“I’m bothered by this,” Labuda began, “so I have to say something about this now. This comes from a blog, and you know what a blog is – people put on things they don’t have to answer for.” She said the blog got it wrong about the House Majority Project. “The House Majority Project does not communicate with citizens like you, unfortunately; they deal with me, because I’m a candidate. Anything that is said about the House Majority Project in here, the House Majority Project took care of that – it’s completely false.” [POLS EMPHASIS]

Labuda went on to dispute Houck’s claims that she’s too cozy with payday lenders, claiming she’s voted against the industry more often than she’s taken its side in legislative battles.

“I know we have to rein in predatory lenders, but I also know that people need options,” Labuda said. She said she has neighbors who borrow from the outfits when they have to.

“I know other professional people who have gone and taken short-term loans from payday lenders. They’re needed. I want to keep options open for people,” she said, adding that voting against a bill doesn’t necessarily mean a lawmaker disagrees with the broad intentions of the legislation.

“I don’t vote for all payday lender bills,” she said. “Unfortunately, I don’t vote for all education bills. Some bills just aren’t written well. You think of the ‘Right to Work’ law. What does the Right to Work law do? It doesn’t give us the right to work, it gives some employers the right to fire us. That’s the way some bills are written.”

She took at least a couple more swings at the blog posts distributed by her primary opponent.

“I’m still bothered by that stuff that’s in that blog that’s just full of falsehoods,” she said, making a face and discarding her prepared remarks to hammer the other blog entry, which called Labuda insensitive for comparing payday lending borrowers with alcoholics.

“The comparison to alcoholism,” an exasperated Labuda said, “I’m not trying to demean anybody. I’m just trying to point out that for every legal item out there, there’s some people that aren’t able to use it correctly. I’m trying very hard to keep payday lending around for people who need it.”

We stand by our original commentary on both the nature of Houck’s primary campaign as well as Labuda’s asinine remarks on payday lending outfits. We invite Rep. Labuda and Ms. Houck to air their comments on either issue.



That said, Houck patently cannot have it both ways. It is ridiculous for her to defend her primary challenge by noting that it is “mathematically impossible” for a Republican to win in HD-1 while at the same time passing out campaign literature that implies she’s the better candidate because Labuda cannot easily hold the seat. If Houck is so certain that any Democratic candidate will win, why can’t that candidate be the three-term incumbent?

As regards the payday lending issue, Labuda continues to err by even bringing up her ill-informed remarks at all.  We understand that she probably misspoke in comparing payday-lendees to alcoholics. After all, in the era of the ten second soundbite, no politician in their right mind would make that kind of statement intentionally. We hope.

Instead of vacillating, though, all Rep. Labuda needed to say last week was something to the effect of “I misspoke” before going on to say “I’m trying very hard to keep payday lending around for people who need it.”

In politics, perception is just as important as reality. That Labuda’s comments on payday lenders can even be perceived as offensive means that they probably are offensive. Rather than attempting to justify what, by any measure, were incredibly insensitive remarks, Labuda just needs to reframe the issue. To her credit, she attempted to do exactly that. But she needs to do it better. Referring to insidious “blog posts” isn’t nearly as effective as simply admitting her mistake. Let’s be clear: it was an enormous mistake for Labuda to even mention alcoholism in the same breath as payday-lending borrowers. We didn’t make that mistake – we just pointed it out.

We don’t have a horse in this race. Jeanne Labuda is correct: the Houck campaign should be the ones putting together a campaign instead of relying on our commentary. After all, it’s Houck’s name that will be on the ballot, not ours. But Labuda has opened herself up to criticism and the widespread belief that she’s an ineffective campaigner. That criticism will continue if she continues to make mistakes no incumbent representative should be making.

If you received a copy of the Houck campaign literature featuring our blog posts, we’d love to see it. Just e-mail us: info@denverpols.com

Brian Carroll Exits House Race…Again

This has got to be some sort of record or something.

Today Democrat Brian Carroll announced that he was ending his campaign for the state legislature in HD-28, meaning that he has now entered and exited the same State House race twice in 6 months.

Last fall Carroll inexplicably decided to run for the House against incumbent Andy Kerr, who only has one term left. Carroll ended his campaign rather quickly, but it all became a moot point when reapportionment convinced Kerr to run for the State Senate (SD-22) instead.

With Kerr running for a different seat, Carroll announced in January that he would again be running for HD-28. A month later, Democrat Brittany Petterson announced that she would also run in HD-28, and she quickly began collecting a strong list of endorsements.

At the Jefferson County Democratic Assembly on Saturday, Petterson bested Carroll with 80% of the vote, meaning that Carroll could only make it onto the primary ballot by going the petition route. Apparently he won’t bother, and is instead dropping out of the same race for the second time in 6 months.

Said Carroll:

“I began this journey with the intent to affect positive change in my community and to be a part of meeting the needs of our state. My dedication and commitment to serve my community, state and country will never wane. While I continue to believe that my background and experience well qualify me to represent House District 28, taking back the State House is too important to split critical resources in this fight. This is just the beginning for me in helping elect good Democrats in Lakewood and across our great state, including my endorsement of Brittany Pettersen for House District 28.”

We’d say it’s a bit of a stretch to call this a “journey,” since his campaign isn’t even entering month #3. And while it makes for an interesting trivia question to drop out of the same race twice in 6 months, it also all but ensures that Carroll won’t be getting elected to anything anytime soon. For one thing, nobody is going to donate a cent to his campaign if he runs again in the next 10 years.

You can read the full press release after the jump.

At Least Try to Make Your Press Releases Unique

Since neither Rick Enstrom nor Amy Attwood had primary challengers in their races for HD-23 and HD-28, respectively, their nominations at yesterday’s county assembly were nothing more than a formality.

We don’t blame either for sending out press releases championing their respective victories, however. Symbolically, their nominations at the assembly are important in signaling the next phase of the campaign in which each will make their case for election.

Still, reading through the statements released by both Enstrom’s and Attwood’s campaigns, you’ve got to wonder just how sincere either candidate really feels — their statements are almost identical.

Let’s start with Attwood:

Amy Attwood Earns Spot on Ballot as Candidate for House District 28: Jeffco GOP Assembly Demonstrates Strong Support for Attwood Candidacy

Lakewood, CO- Jefferson County small business woman Amy Attwood, R-Lakewood, this Saturday, earned the nomination to be the GOP candidate for State House District 28 in this November’s election.

Attwood says she is humbled by the strong show of support and looks forward to officially kicking off her campaign for House District 28.

“I am running for the State House to provide a strong voice for Jefferson County families and small business owners,” Attwood said. “Working in small business, the community and caring for my own family has provided me with the experience and background that I believe will serve House District 28 well in the state legislator.”

After years of experience working for her family construction business, Amy knows firsthand the impact government has on job creation and preservation. Her experience has instilled her with the values of small business ownership, commitment to employees and their families as well as customers and the community.

“Balancing budgets and keeping records for a small business has taught me a lot about what government does right and where government gets in the way,” Attwood said. “That is the perspective that I will to bring to the state House. I believe this perspective will best serve Jeffco families and small business owners as we turn the corner of this recession.”

Amy has deep roots in Jefferson County and Colorado. She is a native of Lakewood, a graduate of Columbine High School and the University of Northern Colorado and has served on the Jefferson County Planning Commission.

“I know and love this community and am honored to have the opportunity to earn the votes of my friends and neighbors in Lakewood,” Attwood said. “I look forward to continuing my commitment to our community over the course of this campaign as I speak with voters across the district to ensure that their voices are a heard.”

Amy is married to Gavin, and together they have two sons, Max, 9 and Zak, 7.

Now, for Enstrom:

Rick Enstrom Receives Unanimous Support as Candidate for House District 23: Jeffco GOP Assembly rallies around Enstrom Candidacy

Lakewood, CO-Jefferson County businessman and Lakewood resident Rick Enstrom, on Saturday, earned the nomination to be the Republican candidate for State House District 23 in this November’s election.

Enstrom said he had long looked forward to the official beginning of his campaign as the party’s nominee, and was touched by the outpouring of support he received at the Assembly.

“After a lifetime of living in Colorado – working to create jobs, raising a family and giving back to my community, I am excited to take this next step.” Enstrom said. “Coloradans deserve a leader who will actively listen to the needs of the community and work to provide people the freedom and opportunity to pursue their goals.”

Years of working for the family business, Enstrom Candies, has equipped Rick with the skills and experience needed to make a meaningful difference in state government. His years of service as a volunteer firefighter, EMT and member of the Highland Rescue Team have instilled in him a passion and a drive for giving back to his community.

“As our state and our country confront the realities presented by the economic slowdown and the dramatic job losses of recent years, I intend to work for increased economic opportunity and growth of good careers that JeffCo families need in order to provide a bright future for their children,” Enstrom said.

Rick has strong ties to Jefferson County. A Colorado native, Rick is the father to two married sons and has three grandchildren who all live nearby in Lakewood. He is a graduate of Mesa College.  He has served on the Colorado Wildlife Commission and the board of Great Outdoors Colorado.  His passion for the outdoors earned him “Conservationist of the Year” awards from both Colorado Ducks Unlimited and Southeast Prowers NRCS.

“I’m looking forward to beginning my campaign in earnest.” Enstrom said. “Coloradans deserve a representative who will listen to their needs and that is what I intend to do over the coming months as I walk door to door in my district seeking the support of my longtime friends and neighbors.”

Rick has been married to his greatest supporter, Linda, for 36 years.

There’s nothing wrong with either of these statements. In fact, as far as press releases go, they’ve covered everything they need to cover: each candidate’s career, ties to the area, and reasons for campaigning – perfect fodder for local news.

The problem is, when read side-by-side, these releases make you wonder if they weren’t, in fact, written by the same person. They probably were, of course, or were drafted in deference to the same guidelines from above. If you’re campaigning for a local office, however, you should at least attempt to mask the fact you’re running for reasons given to you by your political party.

That’s a difficult task when all members of your political party make the same sort of statements.

Attwood and Enstrom both “earned the nomination to be the GOP candidate…in this November’s election.”

Attwood’s “years of experience working for her family construction business” sounds a lot like Enstrom’s “years of working for the family business, Enstrom’s candies.”

Enstrom’s “strong ties to Jefferson County” are also pretty similar to Attwood’s “deep roots in Jefferson County.”

Oh, don’t forget that both candidates are “looking forward” to the campaign. That’s important. Don’t overlook the last sentence in the boilerplate, either, where Enstrom talks about his wife Linda and Attwood talks about her husband Gavin.

In short, because each of these candidate’s statements are designed to showcase their deeply personal reasoning and unique qualifications for public office, it looks really bad when those same statements are nothing more than generic buzzwords adapted for each race.

Or at the very least, it’s going to make the person reading your press releases – presumably the very point of issuing a statement – either very suspicious or, more likely, very bored. Neither of those reactions lend themselves to favorable newspaper ink.  

Jeffco Line: Countywide Races

Despite Jeffco electoral gains in both houses of the General Assembly, representation at the county level is one nut Jefferson County Democrats have yet to crack.

Commissioner Kathy Hartman was the lone Democratic voice in elected government at the county level until her loss last cycle. In fact, Hartman was the first Democrat elected to the Board of Commissioners in 14 years. With Hartman’s 2010 loss to Republican Don Rosier, however, the Democrats lost their last connection to the Taj Mahal.

As things stand today, it’s unlikely the Democrats will be able to reverse that trend in 2012.

Commissioner Faye Griffin, elected in 2008, seems set to ascend to a second term. Griffin, of course, is the only sitting commissioner to have signed off on the now-infamous “Bridge to Nowhere” linking the Southwest Plaza and Bowles Crossing shopping centers. That’s a definite weakness which the right challenger could use in mail pieces to link Griffin with both wasteful spending and government corruption, two talking points that even conservatives in South Jeffco could get behind. Even with that veritable Achilles heel, however, the Jeffco Dems have yet to draft a candidate for the District 1 seat.

That’s no surprise. Longtime State Senator Sue Windels lost to Griffin in 2008, taking only 42% of the vote. If Windels, who from a decade of service in state government was popular in north Jeffco, couldn’t defeat Griffin for an open seat, it’s unlikely that there’s a candidate out there who could beat the former treasurer in a re-election fight.

Instead, it seems, the county Democrats have focused their efforts on District 2 Commissioner John Odom. Odom, a failed candidate for the State Senate, was appointed to fill the remainder of Kevin McCasky’s term after the latter took a now controversial post at the Jefferson Economic Council. Odom’s previous electoral difficulties and lack of resounding name ID throughout the candidate led attorney Casey Tighe to jump into the race.

Tighe is by no means a bad candidate. He’s served in senior positions at the Colorado Department of Transportation for a quarter-century and also chaired the Jefferson County Audit Committee. In short, Tighe’s got a great resume to make the case that he’s qualified to root corruption out of county government, once and for all.

Absent on Tighe’s CV, however, is previous elected service. Without it, the attorney is going to struggle to make voters remember his name. He’ll also have problems convincing donors to give him the amounts of money he’s going to need to take on an incumbent Republican in right-leaning Jefferson County. Tighe would be an incredible candidate for a competitive State House or State Senate seat – if he shows that he can put together the semblance of an effective campaign, he’ll set the stage for a future run. For county commissioner, we just don’t see him pulling off a surprise win against Odom.

As for the district attorney’s race? We doubt Republican Pete Weir will face any serious opposition. The former district judge served as executive director of the Colorado Department of Public Safety in the Ritter administration, a bipartisan resume bullet that even Democrats can get behind. He’s a good fit for the post, and barring any major campaign trail revelations, should cruise to the DA’s office. If anything, district attorney is too small for Weir: we could see him pivoting from the 1st Judicial District onto the short list for attorney general when John Suthers is termed out in 2014.  

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