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(D) Kamala Harris

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(R) Gabe Evans

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30%

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Colorado Pols/RBI Poll: Romer 22%, Mejia 10%, Hancock 9%

This is a poll of the Denver mayoral race, released by Colorado Pols and conducted by Denver-based RBI Strategies & Research. A summary from RBI research director Kevin Ingham:

RBI mayoral survey shows low voter engagement with just 3 weeks before voting begins

A survey of likely 2011 municipal voters in Denver shows that while Chris Romer is currently leading, a plurality of voters remain undecided and have yet to significantly engage on the race.  When asked who they would vote for in the race for Mayor of Denver, 22% of respondents said they would vote for Chris Romer and 10% said James Mejia with Michael Hancock (9%), Doug Linkhart (7%), Carol Boigon (5%) and Theresa Spahn (2%) all receiving support in the single digits.  Another 5% said they would vote for a different candidate and a 40% plurality say they remain undecided on which candidate they will support.

This survey is a useful snapshot of the status of the race at a time before voters have began to engage.  Though Chris Romer is clearly leading, much of this can be attributed to his name ID advantage and the race remains wide open.  Early horserace surveys, such as this one, tend to show that support is highly correlated to name ID.  Therefore, with such a large portion of the likely electorate unfamiliar with the candidates, the high number of undecided voters is not surprising.  In fact, fully 32% were unable to provide hard name ID for any of the six candidates presented during the survey interview.

As the major mayoral candidate begin to communicate with voters, the race will be sure to become more engaged and is likely to become highly fluid over the next few weeks.

RBI Strategies & Research conducted a telephone survey of 400 Denver voters who indicated it was likely that they would vote in the May 2011 Municipal Election. Interviews were conducted March 21 – March 22, 2010 by Standage Market Research of Denver, Colorado, a market research firm specializing in telephone survey interviewing. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Colorado voters, purchased from Voter Contact Services, who registered after the 2010 General Election or voted in the 2010 General Election and either 1) voted in at least one off-year election dating back to 2003 or 2) registered after 2009 off-year election.

The margin of error for a survey of 400 interviews is ±4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error is higher for subsamples within the full sample.

Other sources of error not accounted for by the stated statistical margin of error include, but are not limited to, question wording, question order, and refusal to be interviewed.

Toplines | Crosstabs

NOTE: RBI Strategies is not involved with any Denver mayoral campaigns.

Mr. Ingham will join Colorado Pols readers at 1PM today for a Q&A session.

Release: Peña Endorses Debbie Ortega

From Press Release:

Former Denver Mayor and Secretary of Transportation and Energy Federico Peña has endorsed Debbie Ortega in her run for one of the Denver City Council At-Large seats.  “I support Debbie for the at-large seat because of her experience and expertise with municipal government.  With a new mayor, a new cabinet, and at least five new council members coming in this summer, we need to have some experience on the city council,” Peña said. “There are going to be a lot of tough choices, and Debbie Ortega has the experience in examining all angles, and to find creative solutions.  I urge the voters of Denver to join me in bringing back Debbie Ortega to the City Council!”

“I am so proud to have Federico’s endorsement and support,” said Debbie Ortega. “It was with the Peña administration when I was on the City Council, that I was able to spearhead the creation of the Lower Downtown Historic District, redevelopment of the Central Platte Valley, and Many transportation projects.  I look forward to continuing to work on great projects in this city as we move into a new era of prosperity and success!”  

Carol Boigon Wants to Be the Next John Hickenlooper

In more ways than one, obviously. Boigon’s prepping to launch a new TV buy, and she’s doing her best to imitate her elected predecessor:

After all, who could forget Hickenlooper’s skydiving ad in support of Ref C?

Mark our words, though, Boigon is no Hickenlooper. Hick could get away with these charming ads for his mayoral campaign, Ref C, and his eventual Gubernatorial campaign because of who he was. He came off like your good-natured if goofy next door neighbor. He was approachable in the way you’d want your Mayor to be. His boyish charm made these ads a hit.

In developing ads like these, Boigon clearly wants to paint herself as a Mayor in the spirit of Hickenlooper. Unfortunately, that invitation to see her as a continuation of the Hick years might do more harm than good.

Boigon just isn’t approachable the way Hickenlooper is. Those who know her best would be the first to describe her as an “old school” type of politician; she expects respect for her title and positions. And unlike Hick, who gained financial success from what was first a small business, Boigon doesn’t exactly come off as an entrepreneur.

These ads naturally compare Carol to John. It’s what they were written for. But that’s why this ad in particular seems so odd: it’s like the rich woman your boyish neighbor used to mow lawns for suddenly wants to look cool. At least she didn’t jump out of the plane, though.

Denver Line Updated

At long last, we’ve updated The Denver Line. We won’t delve into more detail on the other races here so that we can focus on the Mayoral Line and a quick explanation for how we see the race today. This all may change once the new finance reports are made available next week, but here’s our view today:

Chris Romer

Romer is the favorite at this point for two big reasons: Fundraising and name ID. This has been an incredibly quiet race for one of the biggest prizes in Colorado politics, and that gives a huge advantage to the son of a popular former governor (Roy Romer). Whether or not Romer can win a runoff is a different question, but it’s hard to see how he won’t at least make it into the top two in April.

James Mejia

For someone who started his campaign well before any of the other candidates, Mejia should be in a better position than he is. His fundraising has been disappointing, and that’s his biggest problem; Mejia has no built-in name recognition from holding prior office, so he must be able to have a strong paid media presence to have any hope of winning. If Mejia had a poor February raising money, he’ll need a minor miracle to have any real chance at winning.

Carol Boigon

We wouldn’t normally put much stock in a message of “Denver’s first female mayor” (ask Hillary Clinton how much the “first female” thing mattered), but the Mayoral race has been so boring and devoid of interesting story lines that it might actually get some traction. Boigon’s biggest advantage, however, is the fact that she’ll be able to raise or contribute whatever she needs financially — that alone puts her in a great position coming down the stretch.

Michael Hancock

Hancock’s campaign was clearly designed to make him look like the frontrunner from the beginning, but the problem with that approach is that it leaves you with nowhere to go but down. His comments that the Denver Mayor should oversee the school system looked like a bit of a Hail Mary to us, and in a close race it’s going to cost him dearly. Voters may not be happy with the school district, but the idea of putting all control in the hands of one person won’t ease their concerns. The fact that Hancock hasn’t heavily promoted his “Mayoral control” idea tells us that it wasn’t well-received.

Momentum is definitely not on Hancock’s side, but there’s time to fix that. The concern now is whether he’ll be able to afford the kind of TV presence to compete with Romer and Boigon’s money.

Doug Linkhart

Linkhart has not been raising much money and thus suffers the most from the lack of media coverage of the race. Linkhart’s not a bad candidate — he’s just not interesting enough to intrigue voters without paid or earned media support. Unless Linkhart has a couple of aces up his sleeve, we just don’t see how he’s going to be able to get attention once the TV ads begin.

Theresa Spahn

If there was ever a race where a relative nobody had a chance to pull off the upset, this is it. If she can go up on TV with a big buy, then anything goes…but we kind of doubt that’s going to happen. Her campaign touts that she “is on the list of the Top 6 Mayoral fundraisers,” which would be cool if there was a prize for sixth place.

Blind Spot: Hancock and Metro Taxi

As the slate of Denver mayoral candidates report their numbers for last month, opponents of city councilman Michael Hancock are turning up the heat over his role in the ongoing denial of PUC approval for Mile High Cab to launch taxi service in metro Denver. Last September, you might recall, columnist Susan Greene argued the plight of Mile High Cab, and competition-stavred consumers in Denver–and the stiff opposition to their bid from Michael Hancock.

In January, Hancock reported over $125,000 in contributions, with at least $8,000 of that total from Metro Taxi or employees. And Metro Taxi has consistently been a top contributor to Hancock–something, as this Xtranormal-ified transcript we were forwarded from Hancock’s PUC testimony against Mile High Cab last fall attests, he’s a little evasive about under questioning:

Ouch! Assuming the accuracy of that transcript, it certainly doesn’t cast Hancock in the best light. For those of you who can’t see the video, it consists of an attorney grilling Hancock about his contributions from Metro Taxi before the PUC. Hancock initially answers “no” to questions about receiving money from Metro Taxi–presumably in a personal context–then is hit with record of his campaign donations. The overall effect is to make Hancock look conflicted arguing against more taxi competition.

Nevertheless, administrative judge Paul Gomez did deny Mile High Cab’s application last year. These decisions are based (in theory, anyway) or an assessment of service, and the PUC tries to balance the need for services under its regulation with demand. It’s worth noting that there are a lot of cab drivers, many of them recent legal immigrants from developing nations, in Hancock’s district today. One of Mile High’s selling points, said Greene in her column, is their lease rates charged to cabbies would be a fraction of that charged by the big competitors. So maybe downtown Denver doesn’t need more cabs, or maybe Metro Taxi just doesn’t want more competition–for customers or drivers.

Either way, say his opponents, you really can’t take Hancock’s word for it (see cartoon).

Loan? What Loan? Don’t Worry About It

Troubling story last week from The High Timber Times:

Jefferson County on Tuesday granted a decade-long grace period on a loan of more than $6.4 million to an undeveloped metropolitan district for construction of the C-470 and Alameda interchange.

Green Tree Metropolitan District, which is governed by at least one developer who has contributed substantially to Jeffco Republican campaigns, borrowed the money in 2007 from the county to help construct the $17 million interchange.

Under the loan’s original terms in an intergovernmental agreement, Green Tree was to begin repayment at the end of 2011 with an installment of more than $2 million. The remaining principal and interest were to be repaid at the end of 2013.

But the district cites the economy for a lack of development that would allow it to begin repaying the debt.

“Our agreement anticipated development that would allow for repayment starting late this year. With current conditions we are many years away from any development necessary to begin to repay the cost of this interchange,” Green Tree board member John Mullins wrote in an e-mail to Jefferson County. “We are suggesting 2021 as a better date.”

Did campaign contributions help grease the wheels for this loan forgiveness? Reporter Emile Hallez Williams thought it worth questioning:

McCasky, who has received at least $9,000 in campaign contributions from three members of Green Tree’s board, said the donations played no factor in his decision to approve the loan.

And despite the fact that McCasky received $3,500 from the board members less than two months before the agreement was approved, he said he had no idea who sat on the district’s board.

“This isn’t about Green Tree…I don’t even know who Green Tree is. They’re just the metropolitan district managing the property,” McCasky said. “It’s immaterial who the board members are.” [Jeffco Pols emphasis]

On Aug. 7, 2007, McCasky received $500 from John Mullins, $500 from Bill Jenkins and $2,500 from Greg Stevinson – all Green Tree board members. The original intergovernmental agreement was approved on Oct. 2, 2007.

Additionally, Commissioner Faye Griffin has received $9,000 to date from Stevinson in her runs for county treasurer and commissioner, though she was not in her current office when the agreement was drafted. She also received $250 from Mullins and $250 from Jenkins in 2008.

The idea that former County Commissioner Kevin McCasky, who recently resigned to head up the Jefferson Economic Council, has no idea who is involved with Green Tree is laughable at best. Williams notes $3,500 in campaign contributions that occurred prior to the 2007 vote, but over the years McCasky has received much more — tens of thousands of dollars, in fact — in campaign contributions from people affiliated with Green Tree.

Interesting phone poll

So I just got off the phone with a polling company.  Lots of questions (poll was over 20 minutes) about extending term limits for the Denver District Attorney from 3 terms to 4 terms.  

It sounded like a standard, and not a push poll.  I was asked to evaluate several arguments both for, and against, increasing the term limits.  

I did not know this was in the works, I guess it is…at least if it polls OK.  

Boulder Nearing Beltway Deal with Jeffco

UPDATE: Boulder County officials have approved the deal, according to The Daily Camera.

—–

According to the blog The Blue Line, Boulder may be nearing a deal that would get a Beltway, or Jefferson County Parkway, underway after years of fighting in Jeffco:

If it were up to him, said Commissioner Toor, there would be no Jefferson Parkway, but neither the city nor the county have veto power. Last winter, the City of Boulder and Boulder County, through the efforts of Macon Cowles and Will Toor (the city and county representatives on the Denver Regional Council of Governments-DRCOG) tried unsuccessfully to persuade  DRCOG to reject the Jefferson Parkway proposal.  The parkway and the associated Candelas development are looking more likely, according to Toor.  “Do you keep fighting and risk not stopping it, or negotiate for better mitigation?” asked the commissioner.  “It’s not perfect, but it may be the best we can get.”

Opponents of the Beltway who have taken a position of “No, and that means no,” may well take a lesson from Toor. After years and years of battling over the issue, it may be time for opponents to at least try to find something they can be comfortable with in the deal.

You know what happens when you assume . . . on campaign endorsers

Aspiring candidates be advised there are a few prerequisite steps before you send out campaign literature.  

Step 1: Make sure everything’s spelled correctly.  Step 2: Make sure the supporters listed are actually supporting you.

Simple enough, right?  Well, as reported in the North Denver News http://tiny.cc/66xve apparently a group of people in House District 4 weren’t afforded the courtesy of a phone call before their names appeared on a campaign mailer for Amber Tafoya touting her endorsements in the Democratic primary.  We were just forwarded an angry email signed by four activists demanding an apology and retraction from Tafoya, and clearing the air that they-well, at least three of them– are supporting Dan Pabon for the seat being vacated by term-limited Jerry Frangas.

The fourth signer is Vivian Stovall, a familiar name to many readers of this blog, who is none too pleased that someone is falsely assuming she’s supporting anyone in the primary while she’s a party officer.  Suffice it to say, you generally don’t want to be on Vivian’s bad side, as we’re sure Tafoya is learning today.

One could debate if the potential fallout from such an elementary mistake actually does much damage (presuming more people read the mail piece than hear about the letter).  But it has to rock a campaign in a week, when ballots are actually in people’s hands, that they have to publicly acknowledge people are actively supporting an opponent or risk further outrage over an error that was obviously their own fault.  Plus, it must be a little disheartening to know that the donor money invested in an expensive mailer just landed across the district with a resounding thud.

The letter is printed after the jump. (cross-posted at Coloradopols – http://www.coloradopols.com/di…  )

Libby Szabo, Barack Obama and the Anti-Christ

(cross-posted at ColoradoPols.com)

Some of you will remember 2008 SD-19 candidate Libby Szabo, who ran unsuccessfully against now-incumbent Sen. Evie Hudak of Arvada. It was an interesting race: Hudak, it can be gently said, doesn’t have the most commanding stage presence. Fortunately her opponent was Szabo, who, if you haven’t had the pleasure, has a voice even more nasal and grating than Craig Silverman.

Well, Libby Szabo is back this year, running against Sara Gagliardi in HD-27, and once again the focus of high GOP hopes.

Szabo was hurt in 2008 by a questionnaire filled out for Colorado Right to Life, where she indicated that she opposed all abortions–even in cases of rape. She strongly backed 2008’s “personhood” initiative and is expected to do so again this year. Her base of political support primarily revolves around Faith Bible Chapel in Arvada, one of the more influential evangelical megachurches in the northwest Denver area.

Everybody’s got freedom of religion, of course, and we’d say that religious belief should only become a political issue where someone applies religion to their politics. Libby’s husband Denes Szabo is an instructor at the Faith Bible Institute of Biblical Studies, and a selection of his lectures is available on the church’s website. Mr. Szabo’s specialty is “Israel and the End Times,” and on March 9th of this year, he had some interesting things to say about those “End Times”–and President Barack Obama. You, um, know where this isn’t going, don’t you? Audio excerpt, which you really have to hear to believe:



Can’t see the audio player? Click here.

So, apparently some people have made T-shirts with a picture of Obama with a halo, and that’s blasphemous, and the Anti-Christ is going to scare people by promising health care reform, and people are going to “fall for it hook, line and sinker,” and…uh…

Of course, Obama’s popularity has suffered in the last year and a half, making him a popular ogre for lots of disaffected people–sure. We get that. Despite this, we still tend to think if Libby or Denes say too much about Obama’s eerie similarity with “the anti-Christ” on the campaign trail, Libby’s candidacy for the House–at least among the majority of sane voters in HD-27–will get martyred about five minutes later. And being as how a strict evangelical interpretation of the New Testament leaves the wife without much standing to disagree with the husband (thank Apostle Paul, ladies), it’s undeniably fair game to ask Libby if she does.

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