The Big Line: 2018

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning the General Election. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

LAST UPDATE: October 31, 2018

GOVERNOR

(D) Jared Polis* (70%)↑
The writing is on the wall. Here and everywhere else.

(R) Walker Stapleton* (30%)↓
These are not the actions of people who feel confident that their candidate can win.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Phil Weiser* (50%)
Weiser doesn’t appear to have the resources to match RAGA, so this race will be tight.

(R) George Brauchler* (50%)↑
The Republican Attorney Generals Association (RAGA) is spending millions of dollars to prop up Brauchler.

STATE TREASURER

(R) Brian Watson* (50%)↓
Watson has said publicly that he won’t quit his day job if elected Treasurer. This in itself should be disqualifying.

(D) Dave Young* (50%)↑
Walker Stapleton’s abysmal track record as State Treasurer gives Young great narrative for his own campaign — if he can break through the static.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(R) Wayne Williams* (55%)↓
Williams charged taxpayers for a $700 pair of boots and a $500 cowboy hat. Not good.

(D) Jena Griswold* (45%)↑
Griswold getting plenty of opportunities to knock Williams and his apparently-toothless office.

CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)↑
Unless 90% of Denver Democrats decide not to vote, DeGette is safe.

(R) Casper Stockham* (1%)
Not happening.

CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)↑
Neguse will be the first African-American elected to federal office from Colorado.

(R) Peter Yu* (5%)
Nope.

(D) Jared Polis (OFF)
Democratic nominee for Governor in 2018.

CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (55%)↑
Recent polling indicates Tipton might survive a tough battle.

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (45%)↑
It looks like DMB has found her voice as the stretch run approaches.

CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Buck should probably be at greater risk in 2018, but district makeup protects him well.

(D) Karen McCormick* (30%)↑
McCormick is running a decent race but hasn’t gotten on anyone’s radar; her hopes probably depend entirely on size of Democratic wave in November.

CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
Lamborn keeps managing to hold off Republican challengers, so there should be little to worry about in a General Election.

(D) Stephany Rose Spaulding* (10%)
Lamborn isn’t particularly well-liked, but this is a SOLID Republican district

CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (60%)↑
Crow is in good shape here.

(R) Mike Coffman* (40%)↓
National Republicans have pulled millions of dollars out of CO-6, which means Coffman is toast.

CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (98%)
There is no reason whatsoever to think that Perlmutter has anything to worry about in 2018.

(R) Mark Barrington* (2%)
Even Barrington understands that he has absolutely no chance here.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

REPUBLICANS (50%)↓
Senate Republicans won’t hold majority if voters are concerned about sexual harassment problems at State Capitol.

DEMOCRATS (50%)↑
Top Democratic candidates are raising a lot more money than their Republican opponents.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
The only real mystery is in the final numbers; very unlikely that Democrats lose majority in 2018.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans just hoping to keep margin in single digits after November.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2018 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.