The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

LAST UPDATE: November 2, 2020

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Joe Biden (90%)↑
Will Biden carry Colorado by double digits? That’s the real question.

(R) Donald Trump* (10%)↓
Trump couldn’t win Colorado even if cars could vote.

U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)↑
Hickenlooper has led in every public poll. He’ll be leading the final poll on Tuesday.

(R) Cory Gardner* (20%)↓
Gardner is about to reap what he has sown; he’s just hoping to avoid a blowout loss.

CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
In January, DeGette will have served longer in Congress than any other politician in Colorado history.

CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.

CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (55%)↑
This is the toughest major race to call in Colorado. Voter turnout suggests positive news for Democrats, but conservative history in CO-03 still looms large.

(R) Lauren Boebert* (45%)↓
Boebert continues to be her own worst enemy and has no business even being in a competitive race here. But CO-03 has been a red district for a long time.

CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)↓
Here’s a bold prediction for Election Night: This race will be closer than expected.

(D) Ike McCorkle* (30%)↑
Early voting trends have been good news for Democrats in Colorado, but it’s still hard to see enough of a shift to get McCorkle a victory.

CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
Shouldn’t be re-elected. Shouldn’t have been re-elected since first winning in 2006. But this is Colorado Springs we’re talking about.

CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (85%)↑
It’s easy to forget that this seat was once solidly in Republican hands.

(R) Steve House* (15%)↓
House would have been a bad candidate in any year.

CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (95%)
Perlmutter is a popular and well-known Democrat in a blue county…and he has a terrible opponent.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Stockham is running for Congress because that’s what he does.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
The math is simple: There aren’t enough winnable seats for Republicans in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
Colorado Republicans grudgingly admit that this ain’t happening in 2020.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (90%)
There’s no realistic scenario in which Democrats don’t maintain a healthy majority here.

REPUBLICANS (10%)
House Minority Leader Patrick Neville is taking his ball and going home. Unfortunately for House Republicans, he’s still leading much of 2020 strategy for the GOP.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.