The Big Line: 2024

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2024 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: October 29, 2024

PRESIDENT (TO WIN COLORADO)

(D) Kamala Harris* (80%)↑
Remember, this is about who is most likely to carry Colorado. It will be the Democratic candidate, as it has been for more than a decade.

(R) Donald Trump (20%)
Trump lost Colorado in 5 points in 2016 and 14 points in 2020. He can’t win here.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (98%)
No Republican is going to win in Denver anytime soon.

(R) Valdamar Archuleta (2%)
Ain’t happening.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
Neguse is very popular and running for re-election in a solid-blue district.

(R) Marshall Dawson (5%)
We wouldn’t know a Marshall Dawson if it fell out of the sky.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Jeff Hurd (50%)
Very little is known, politically or personally, about the man we’ve dubbed “Bread Sandwich.” This race is going to be close.

(D) Adam Frisch (50%)
Frisch has more money and better name ID than Hurd, but can he overcome a big Republican voter registration advantage?

(L) James Wiley (1%)
Can a Libertarian candidate win this race? Of course not, but Wiley could very well siphon votes from the eventual Republican nominee.

(R) Lauren Boebert (OFF)
Boebert is switching districts in a desperate attempt to remain in Congress.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert (90%)
Boebert moved here for a reason: CO-04 is the single most Republican-heavy district in the entire state and it cares not about her lunacy.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (10%)
Calvarese will have some residual name ID from being on the special election ballot, but it won’t matter; district makeup is too difficult to overcome.

(R) Ken Buck* (OFF)
Buck made it official on Nov. 1: He won’t seek re-election in 2024.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank (80%)
We haven’t heard much from Crank since he hammered Dave Williams in the GOP Primary. In this district, he doesn’t have to do anything else to win the seat.

(D) River Gassen (20%)
El Paso County is becoming more moderate every cycle, but it’s not there yet. Cool name, though!

(R) Doug Lamborn* (OFF)
Lamborn surprised most observers by announcing he won’t seek re-election in 2024.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Redistricting made CO-06 a very safe Democratic seat for the popular and well-respected Crow. He’ll be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) John Fabbricatore (10%)
Republicans have a slightly better chance here than in CO-01 or CO-02…but this ain’t happening.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen (90%)
Pettersen’s 15-point victory in 2022 discouraged a serious challenge from Republicans in 2024.

(R) Sergei Matveyuk (10%)
Like most districts with strong Democratic incumbents in Colorado, this is a lost cause and Republicans didn’t bother with a real candidate.

(U) Ron Tupa (1%)
Longtime Boulder Democrat is running as an “Unaffiliated” candidate in a district that is nowhere near his current residence. At least this quixotic adventure is almost over.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(D) Yadira Caraveo (52%)↑
This race has become a true toss-up as the most competitive and highest-ranking race in Colorado in 2024.

(R) Gabe Evans (48%)↓
“Gabe-ish” let his freak flag show in the final weeks of the campaign; did voters notice?

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2022 with a 20-15 majority and ended with a 23-12 advantage. It’s hard to see how they could do much better just because of simple math, but Colorado Republicans always find a way to screw up further.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent a record amount of money in 2022 and ended up losing seats. There’s no way for them to retake the majority in 2024.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
Democrats held an unprecedented 41-24 advantage after 2020. Now that majority is 46-19. At this rate, there will be zero Republicans in the State House by 2030 [note: we did not check this math].

REPUBLICANS (5%)
Republicans couldn’t even find candidates to challenge Democrats in at least one of their top targets in 2024.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2024 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.