The Big Line: 2026

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2026 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: November 18, 2024

U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)
Hickenlooper was elected in 2020 by a 9-point margin after winning races for Governor in 2010 and 2014. He’s still Colorado’s most recognizable political name.

(R) Somebody (20%)
There will be a Republican candidate here. They won’t win.

GOVERNOR

(D) Joe Neguse (60%)
Fourth-highest ranking member of House Democratic Caucus is very popular in and outside of Colorado, which helps with fundraising.

(D) Phil Weiser (60%)
Two-term Attorney General is looking for a new role in 2026 and will be a tough candidate.

(D) Jena Griswold (40%)↓
Griswold has been openly maneuvering for Governor for at least a year, but recent troubles for SOS should stunt any momentum.

(D) Ken Salazar (20%)
Salazar’s time as Ambassador to Mexico is coming to a close, and he’s considering a return; but hasn’t been on ballot in Colorado since 2004.

(R) Mark Baisley (10%)
State Senator has already laid down his marker, but nobody will be worried about him.

(R) Paul Lundeen (10%)
State Senate Minority Leader will need a new job; this won’t be it.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (10%)
State Senator and 2022 Congressional hopeful is testing the waters for a “RINOs are Good” message.

(R) Heidi Ganahl (5%)
Bahahahahahaha. Apparently Ganahl is hoping Republicans will want her back after disastrous campaign in 2022.

(R) Greg Lopez (5%)
Outgoing “Congressman” from CO-04 ran for Governor in 2018 and 2022. Keep the streak alive!

(D) Jared Polis* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Michael Dougherty (40%)
Boulder County DA ran for AG in 2018. Will he try again or seek re-election for a third term in his current gig?

(D) Alexis King (40%)
Jefferson County District Attorney was just re-elected without opposition.

(D) Brian Mason (30%)
Adams County DA rounds out the top three list of current district attorneys.

(D) Dylan Roberts (20%)
State Senator from Summit County might be interested or might run for re-election instead.

(D) Jena Griswold (20%)
This might make sense for current SOS should her gubernatorial hopes continue to fade.

(R) Somebody (20%)
There will be a Republican candidate here. They won’t win.

(D) Crisanta Duran (15%)
Former House Speaker really wants to be elected to something, but there aren’t a lot of Democrats who agree.

(D) Phil Weiser* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) George Stern (60%)
Former Jefferson County Clerk and Recorder has already signaled his interest.

(D) Amanda Gonzalez (50%)
Current Jeffco Clerk and Recorder is considering but could seek safe re-election instead.

(D) Jeff Bridges (40%)
Term-limited State Senator is looking for another gig.

(D) Jesse Danielson (40%)
Jefferson County State Senator is pondering.

(R) Sheri Davis (30%)
Douglas County Clerk and Recorder will run hard against Jena Griswold’s record. This might be best Republican chance at statewide office in 2026.

(D) Jena Griswold* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

STATE TREASURER

(D) Brianna Titone (60%)
State Representative from Arvada is considering and would be an interesting candidate.

(R) Kevin Grantham (30%)
Former State Senate President and Fremont County Commissioner is being floated here.

(D) Jerry DiTullio (20%)
Jefferson County Treasurer has been running for awhile but is not particularly well-respected.

(D) Dave Young* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (90%)
DeGette’s only concern, as always, is a Democratic Primary challenge.

(R) Somebody (2%)
Doesn’t matter.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse would be re-elected without trouble but might run for Governor instead.

(R) Somebody (2%)
This is a solid Democratic seat; no serious Republican should even bother.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Jeff Hurd* (80%)
The “Bread Sandwich” is off to a weird start, but Republican registration advantage keeps him comfortable.

(D) Somebody (40%)
Democrats need to figure out a potential path to victory here without a Lauren Boebert to make it easier.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (90%)
Boebert moved here for a reason: CO-04 is the single most Republican-heavy district in the state. She’ll underperform, but probably not enough to matter.

(D) Somebody (10%)
Boebert will always have an opponent, but it’s hard to make a real case for anyone given the 27-point Republican advantage in the district.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank* (80%)
The first re-election bid for a new Member of Congress is usually tough, and this district is slowly moving to the left.

(D) Somebody (20%)
If Democrats could recruit a middle-of-the-road military veteran, this could be interesting.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Crow will be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) Somebody (10%)
Republicans will only put up token opposition.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen* (90%)
Pettersen won by 15 points in 2022 and 14 points in 2024. She’s safe.

(R) Somebody (10%)
Like most of Colorado’s congressional districts, CO-07 is only winnable for one political party.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(R) Gabe Evans* (50%)
New congressional seats tend to swing back and forth for the first few cycles. Evans will be a top target in 2026.

(D) Yadira Caraveo (40%)
Outgoing Congresswoman might try again in 2026, though we’d be surprised if she did.

(D) Joe Salazar (40%)
Former State Senator will take a good look at running.

(D) Kyle Mullica (40%)
State Senator would have to weigh a campaign here versus seeking re-election in 2026.

(D) Manny Rutinel (40%)
State Representative is doing the “people are asking me to run” dance.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2024 cycle with a 23-12 advantage. They’ll enter 2026 with the same 23-12 majority.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent $5.5 million in 2024 to end up right back where they started.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
Democrats lost a few seats in 2024 but still hold the second-largest majority in modern state history.

REPUBLICANS (5%)
Republicans won a few seats in 2024 that they should have already held. There’s no path to majority anytime soon.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2026 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.