Rep. Sue Schafer's Vote May Kill Payday Lending Bill

by: Colorado Pols

Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 11:55:13 AM MDT

The Payday Lending reform bill hasn't seen much action since a flurry of activity a week ago, and we hear that has a lot to do with Schafer's opposition after listening to former HD-24 Representative (and current state Senate candidate) Cheri Jahn, who worked to kill previous Payday Lending reform bills when she was in the legislature.

That's right -- two Democrats from a strongly-Democratic district may be primarily responsible for killing Payday Lending reform for the second time.  

Caucus Winners and Losers

by: Colorado Pols

Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 10:52:40 AM MDT

On the Democrats' side, we can't really declare either Sen. Michael Bennet or Andrew Romanoff to be a "Winner" or a "Loser" from last night. Romanoff didn't beat Bennet by a significant margin, so little has changed in this race in the last 24 hours. But that doesn't mean there wasn't a lot to discuss on the Republican side, so let's get to it...

WINNERS

Ken Buck
As we wrote yesterday, Buck's campaign for the Republican nomination in the U.S. Senate race obviously had a good feel for the likely results given that his manager was actually raising expectations rather than lowering them. Buck did just slightly better than Jane Norton (37.86% to 37.74%), but this is still a huge victory for the Weld County District Attorney because it shattered the idea of Norton as a clear frontrunner.

Norton spent a lot of money on TV ads leading up to the caucus, and she still couldn't even get to 40%. She's now going to have to continue to spend money through the state assembly in order to hold on to her delegates and stem Buck's momentum. Buck still has to show he can raise money after a pathetic Q4 that saw him raise just $40k, but the momentum is now on his side.


Dan Maes
Lost in the discussion over the U.S. Senate race was the fact that the unknown, poorly-funded Maes managed to pull nearly 40% in a preference poll for Governor. This is more an indictment of frontrunner Scott McInnis than a sign of strength for Maes, but nevertheless this is a big victory for a guy that nobody had even heard of a year ago.


LOSERS

Scott McInnis
If the results from last night's preference polling holds through the state assembly, McInnis is going to have to really campaign to make sure he makes it out of a gubernatorial primary. Challenger Dan Maes has been a thorn in his side for a few months, but most people (including us) wouldn't have expected Maes to actually be on the ballot in August. Maes likely couldn't have afforded to petition on to the ballot, but now it looks like he might make it on through the caucus process, which is a massive blow to McInnis' hopes of beating Democrat John Hickenlooper in November. McInnis will now have to expend real time and resources in the primary -- neither of which he can afford to use up before a general election battle with Hick.


Jane Norton
We covered this in our discussion of Ken Buck above. The image of Norton as GOP frontrunner has been smashed, and she's going to have to really ratchet up the fundraising (and the spending) in order to make sure she gets through the primary.


Tom Wiens
By picking up just 16% of the votes, Wiens came in a distant third to Buck and Norton in the GOP Senate polls and needs to go the petition route to make sure he makes it onto the ballot. Given that most of Wiens' warchest comes from his own bank account, he's got a decision to make. Does he spend the money to gather the necessary petition signatures and continue his campaign? Or does he take the caucus results as a sign that he might not have the support to win a primary? We don't think Wiens is out of the running by any means -- not with Norton's poor performance and Buck's meager finances -- but last night was definitely a "fork in the road" moment for him.

Natural Gas "Grand Bargain" Reaps Political Dividends

by: Colorado Pols

Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 09:36:07 AM MDT

Rep. Ellen Roberts and Sen. Bruce Whitehead - rivals in the state's hottest Senate race - will cooperate on an attempt to replace coal power plants with natural gas.
It promises to be one of the biggest bills of the year.

Coal miners hate it, but many other interests love it, including the state's largest utility, the natural-gas industry, environmentalists and most of the Legislature's Republicans and Democrats.

The bill also marks the first tangible result of a new strategy by the natural-gas industry.

Instead of fighting environmentalists, companies are using clean-air laws to open the lucrative electricity market to natural gas.

Gov. Bill Ritter called House Bill 1356 "a very big deal." His biggest critic, Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, said it could be a "game-changer" for the natural-gas industry...

Environmentalists were jubilant.

"This is one of the most important and consequential pieces of legislation that we've had the pleasure of working on," said Pam Kiely of Environment Colorado. "We have in Colorado really stepped out on a limb. We are talking about fundamentally changing how we power our future."

It really is that big, folks. Politically, this plan yields benefits for everyone involved: after over a year of endless (and bogus) protestations that the new rules governing oil and gas drilling were 'killing the industry,' a large new market for locally-produced natural gas will be created, substantially taking a whole set of electioneering claims off the table. There's an argument to be made that Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper was already in the process of doing just that; but now the job is easier, and the energy industry has even less incentive to wage war. It's a huge face-saving legacy builder for Josh Penry, too, as he figures out what to do with himself when his Senate term ends.

The Herald goes on to report that this agreement between the state and Xcel was a year in the making. Bringing opposing parties together on this kind of scale is something we can only remember happening once or twice in recent years, and word is that some of Colorado's foremost political powerbrokers, like Hogan & Hartson's Ted Trimpa, were instrumental in moving this from discussion to the cutting of a deal.

So--we're well and truly done now with the "Colorado is at rock bottom" nonsense, right?

Wednesday Open Thread

by: Colorado Pols

Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 06:48:33 AM MDT

--Dwight D. Eisenhower

2010 Caucus Night Open Thread

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 17:17:15 PM MDT

--Morris K. Udall

UPDATE: Tweeted by the Denver Post's Curtis Hubbard:

BIG BUCK NEWS: 8% of pcts reporting in GOP senate Buck 40.36% Norton 30.40% Wiens 20.29% Tidwell 5.98% #caucusco

Norton-Buck. With 16 % in, she's back in the lead 37% to 33.5%. Question is, what if she doesn't win plurality? #caucusco

Norton and Buck are deadlocked at 37 percen[t] with almost 90 percent of precincts in. Amazing night . #caucusCO

Romanoff in danger of dropping below 50%. Have to believe the campaign was hoping for a bigger margin of victory (Bennet at 42) #caucusCO

Pre-Caucus Ad Buys Tax Norton

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 18:16:47 PM MDT

Ex-CO LG Jane Norton (R) leads the GOP field in her bid to face Sen. Michael Bennet (D), but a costly primary is already sapping Norton of much-needed resources as she heads into an early test of strength.

Norton has spent $243K on TV ads since announcing her candidacy, including a recent surge in the run-up to tonight's caucuses. The ads urge GOPers to attend the caucuses which, even though they are non-binding, could serve as an embarrassment if she loses to either of her less-well-known rivals.

The run-up to the statewide caucuses "is hugely labor-intensive. It's all-consuming for a campaign," said GOP pollster Nicole McClesky, a veteran of CO campaigns who is not affiliated with a candidate this year. Even if Norton loses tonight, McClesky said, "she's the front-runner."

But as in other states where the GOP's establishment favorite has run into roadblocks, Norton is finding trouble on her right flank. If Norton loses to either of her 2 rivals tonight, it will be evidence that the GOP activist class is not ready to coalesce around a candidate yet, and that attacks on Norton's record are having an impact.

Bennet Starts TV Advertising Campaign Day After Caucuses

by: RedGreen

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 17:16:20 PM MDT

The message is a sharp stick in the eye of Washington, which Bennet calls "broken," building on reform measures he introduced earlier this month. It's the first TV commercial Bennet has ever run, his campaign emphasizes, making the point he's not a career politician.

Shot in front of Lookout Mountain, the ad also unveils a new Bennet slogan: "I'm Michael Bennet and I approve this message," he says, "because I'm listening to Colorado."

The ad will run for two weeks in Denver and Colorado Springs on broadcast and cable at a reported cost in the neighborhood of $300,000.

Watch the ad and read a transcript after the jump.

New Advertisers

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 15:55:23 PM MDT

There's a simple reason why people want their ads displayed here at Colorado Pols, it's because they get seen. Get yours going today--click "Advertise at Colorado Pols" in the right column, or send an email to ads@coloradopols.com.

Oh Come all ye Caucus Goers, blogging and triumphant...

by: Voyageur

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 15:24:10 PM MDT

I know all there is to know
about the expectations game...
I've played my share of the expectations game.

After a year of bar talk and blogging and doorbell ringing and millions of robocalls, tonight registered Democrats and Republicans will gather at their precinct caucuses for a true exercise in grass-roots democracy.  While the straw polls that will be used to apportion delegates  to the next step, county assemblies, aren't binding, they usually provide a good clue as to the relative strengths of the respective contenders.

Of course, all the campaign managers are in football coach mode, trying to spin expectations.  "I know the Little Sisters of the Poor will beat the Cornhuskers by thirty points or so," Nebraska coach Ron Spinmeister told the Associated Press.  "But if we score even one field goal, it's a moral victory for us."

 Well, maybe not.  State Sen. Gil Romero rode a strong personal story to the top line at the state Democratic convention in 1998, but Dottie Lamm won the primary and the U.S. Senate  anyway.  More recently, little known Mike Miles won top line in 2004 but lost the nomination to then Attorney General Ken Salazar.  

The Caucus Spin: Who REALLY Has the Most at Stake?

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 13:28:20 PM MDT

Walker Stapleton Will Skip Caucus, Go Petition Route

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 12:30:14 PM MDT

Walker Stapleton, candidate for Colorado State Treasurer, will launch a grassroots statewide petition drive to earn a spot on the Republican Party primary ballot.  

"I am really looking forward to starting the petition process," Stapleton said. "This is a great chance to get out and talk to thousands of registered Republicans across the state about the need to put taxpayers first and put Colorado back on the path to fiscal discipline."

Stapleton said his campaign will be out at major events statewide throughout the spring collecting signatures.

There's no real surprise here, given that Republican candidates J.J. Ament and Ali Hasan are more well-known among Republican faithful. Stapleton will need to collect at least 10,500 signatures from registered Republicans (1,500 minimum from each congressional district) in order to qualify for the ballot.

Amazon "Job Loss" Fiction Continues

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 12:24:40 PM MDT

But first, a word from the Colorado Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry's press office!

"Accusing the business community of 'crying wolf' over job losses is a huge insult to the hundreds of Amazon affiliates laid off because of the new Internet tax [Pols emphasis] or the thousands of steel workers whose jobs have been put in jeopardy because of the new energy tax," said Sen. Ken Kester, R-Las Animas.

Business owners repeatedly testified before members of the legislature saying that a series of Democrat proposed tax increases would kill jobs. Pepsi officials, for example, told lawmakers a new soda tax will put at risk as many as 800 jobs. A new tax hike on candy will target 150 workers at Grand Junction confectioner Enstrom's, and the more than $3.3 million the company spends each year with more than 300 Colorado vendors...

On the "Amazon tax," what we're talking about are essentially online advertising agreements with owners of small websites, both commercial and personal. Let's put this in perspective: say you've got a website. If that website gets 2,500 unique visitors in a month, which is not too shabby for a lot of websites, and assuming a click-through rate of 0.5%, higher than many studies have shown typical--that's 13 people, rounded up, who would click through to an Amazon "buy something" page. Let's generously say that half of those actually buy the product, for simplicity's sake a $25 book. Amazon's "Classic" compensation program pays a 4% commission on these sales.

7 sales x $25 = $175 in sales, 4% of which is...$7.

Seven dollars a month, folks, and that's under a fairly generous set of hypothetical circumstances. We're not unsympathetic to any loss of income in these tough economic times, to be sure, but we don't know anybody who would consider the loss of seven dollars a month to be a "lost job" in any realistic sense of the term. We wouldn't call that a lost job at many multiples of that figure, and we have yet to see a Colorado-based website that has actually produced anything remotely close to full-time employment income through this program--period. Take issue with the policy all you want, but please don't refer to these referral programs as "lost jobs" or "layoffs" ever again. It's just silly.

As soon as you understand the extent to which Amazon's arbitrary response to this law, more to the point the economic effect of that response, is being blown out of all earthly proportion by opportunistic politicians, the idea that a 2.9% tax won't really put 800 Pepsi employees out of work (please, folks)--or Enstrom or Rocky Mountain Steel either--makes a lot more sense.

Shyne the media spotlight on Scott McInnis

by: Jason Salzman

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 10:02:38 AM MDT

Is this a sign of good journalism or cynical passivity on behalf of the Colorado media?

When the appearance-coach story broke (and was mostly ignored) last month, I first thought it was the former-a sign that maybe journalists were moving away from blowing up meaningless symbols into eyeball-grabbing news stories.

But now I'm thinking Colorado journalists let us down on this one.

Tuesday Open Thread

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 06:49:29 AM MDT

--From Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland

Prop 101: Time to hit the road

by: Bowman for Senate

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 16:39:10 PM MDT

In a nutshell, Prop. 101 seeks to cut vehicle ownership fees to $1/used cars and $2/ new cars, set vehicle registration fees at a flat $10, cut vehicle sales tax, incrementally decrease state income taxes to 3.5 percent and, other than 911 fees, eradicate all taxes and fees on phone, satellite, and Internet services.

The stated rational for this sweeping proposal is two-fold: limiting powers of government, and ceasing excessive collection of dollars that government allegedly does not need.

There are so many flaws in the simplistic application of these two arguments that it is difficult to know where to start, but let's look first at limited power of government. No red-blooded American favors too much government, but even the Founding Fathers acknowledged that government has certain responsibilities, simple basics such as public safety and facilitation of a functioning society.

Maintaining a sound infrastructure of roads and bridges certainly fits those criteria.  

Oh No He Didn't, Tom Lucero Edition

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 15:23:09 PM MDT

For 90 minutes on Thursday, the four candidates for the 4th Congressional District in the Republican Party varied only slightly in their responses.

Then Referendum C came up...

Tom Lucero, a member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents, said the regents supported the measure. Even with the additional money in the state budget, higher education has seen a 60 percent cut in funding, he said, and it would have been much worse without Referendum C.

Others disagreed.

"Referendum C was wrong," Dean Madere said. "The answer is, find the money elsewhere."

Rep. Cory Gardner said he bucked his own party in opposing Referendum C.

"It wasn't a TABOR timeout; it was a TABOR blowout," Gardner said...

We'd love to get Cory Gardner and Jane Norton in the same room to debate Referendum C, would be interesting to see who gets more uncomfortable. Beyond that, you have to feel some sympathy for Lucero, who made only the mistake of relating his experience on the issue--dodging a catastrophic budget cut to the University of Colorado. But doing that, as Rush Limbaugh likes to put it, "skewered the sacred cow" for Republican faithful in the room.

The dogpile that followed pretty much couldn't be helped.

Who is pulling Jane Norton's strings?

by: Alan

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 14:26:03 PM MDT

As Coloradans of both parties gather this week in the first step toward selection of nominees for the state's highest offices, ProgressNow Colorado, the state's largest online progressive advocacy organization, launched a new website called PuppetJaneNorton.com and called on Coloradans of all political persuasions to hold former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton accountable.

"Jane Norton's longstanding ties to Washington D.C. lobbyists are a major problem in her campaign," said ProgressNow Colorado Executive Director Bobby Clark. "Conservatives and progressives alike are wary of her connections to lobbyists for health insurance companies, defense contractors, and even foreign dictators. Whose interests would she truly represent in Washington?"

PPP: Bennet leads Romanoff, 40-34

by: roguestaffer

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 09:45:59 AM MDT

-In the Democratic Senate contest Michael Bennet leads Andrew Romanoff 40-34. Support in this race may end up having to do more with personalities than ideology, as there's no real divide in support along liberal/moderate lines for now. Bennet's up 42-33 with liberals and 40-36 with moderates. Both candidates are pretty well liked by the party electorate. Bennet's approval is a 57/21 spread with primary voters and Romanoff's favorability comes down at 45/15. The one place where there is a clear division is along racial lines. Bennet's up 42-34 with whites while Romanoff has the 42-31 advantage with Hispanics.

For now this is a real race, but it remains to be seen whether Romanoff can compete with Bennet financially and his ability to do so will have a lot to do with whether he can win over the quarter of voters who are undecided. (emphasis added).

Much as I thought. The full memo is here (PDF).

Other notes:

• Bennet has a huge advantage with primary voters, 57%-21%. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, that's the gap that Romanoff needs to close, and without resources, it becomes a nearly impossible task.
  
• Notice the demographic split: Bennet leads with white voters, 42-34, while Romanoff leads with Latinos, 42-31. Expect Bennet's campaign to play up his support for comprehensive immigration reform and the DREAM Act, in particular, as the primary keeps going.
  
• Last note: Bennet has a lead among both liberals and moderates.
  

My bottom line: given that the primary seems to be oriented around personalities rather than ideological differences, expect this primary fight to get nasty if Romanoff manages to raise significant funds to get on the air.  

PPP: Norton Leading GOP Senate Race with 34%

by: roguestaffer

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 09:49:48 AM MDT

In the Republican Senate race Jane Norton leads with 34% to 17% for Ken Buck, 7% for Tom Wiens, and 10% combined for the rest of the field. There are more Republican primary voters who dislike Norton than there are Democrats who dislike either Bennet or Romanoff. Her favorability stands at 41/26. She leads Buck 39-7 with moderates, but by a much narrower 34-21 with conservatives. Given the quarter of GOP primary voters who dislike Norton and the tepid support for her from some voters on the right is Colorado a state where a Tea Party sort of candidate could become a third major candidate this fall and prove to be a spoiler? That would be interesting.

It's too early to completely write off Buck or Wiens because neither is particularly well known right now. 62% of primary voters have no opinion about Buck and 67% are ambivalent toward Wiens. If they have the resources to become better known their support will improve but 17 points is still a lot to make up. (emphasis added)

Good point about resource management - if that is the question, then Buck is at a disadvantage, though 27 points is an even taller hill to climb. This likely explains the early independent expenditures against Norton.

The full memo is here (PDF).

Pinon Canyon and the Governor's Race: A Bright White Line

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 08:37:07 AM MDT

If residents of Southeastern Colorado don't support the expansion of the Army's Pinon Canyon training facility, gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper said Saturday he doesn't support the expansion either.

"With the way (the expansion) was presented, I'm a 'No,' " the Denver mayor said in an interview before the Pueblo Democratic party's St. Patrick Day's fundraiser, held at the Union Depot.

"Unless there is a deal embraced by the residents of Southeastern Colorado that they feel is better for their community, it's hard for me to support it. I don't think the military is so foolish that they want one part of the community to thrive at the expense of another."

Hickenlooper is running against Republican Scott McInnis, who supports the military's position on site expansion...

Despite being an urban mayor, Hickenlooper said he should appeal to rural voters because of his agricultural roots that trace to his grandparents, who were farmers. When he was a restaurant owner, he bought from Colorado food producers.

"What the agricultural community needs is a governor who can be a salesman and who can actually promote their products, and not just in-state. That creates the value of what they produce," he said.

For background, see our original post titled "So Much For Southern Colorado, McLobbyist."

The New Energy Frontier in Colorado

by: Bowman for Senate

Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 10:30:57 AM MST

Poke your head outside anywhere along I-70 and you can feel the power of the wind. Drive across the eastern plains and see acres of crops standing ready to be transformed into next generation biofuels. Stop any Coloradoan on the street and they will proudly tell you that the sun shines 300 days a year in our state. Speak to officials in Logan County and they'll tell you 1/7 of their county tax base now comes from the Peetz Table wind projects. Fly low across the eastern plains and witness the wellheads to the ocean of natural gas below our prairie that will play a critical role in the development of our wind and solar resources.

Embracing this new energy frontier sets the stage for historic opportunities in rural areas of our state that have in the past had limited options for economic growth. It holds the potential of being the most significant job creator we've seen since the oil boom of the 70s-80s.  

Monday Open Thread

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 06:50:58 AM MDT

--John Locke

SHOCKER: Attack Groups "Play Dirty"

by: Colorado Pols

Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 12:13:02 PM MDT

In short, the Taxpayers for Liberty survey is a dishonest and underhanded scheme implemented by a shadowy group, and its "results" utterly worthless. If only we knew the extent of its reach...

Ken Buck ought to come out and publicly condemn the tactics used by TFL, third parties that are seeking to manipulate the game to his benefit. Were he to pursue that course, I and many others would be impressed by Buck's courage and integrity. The longer he stays silent, though, the more questions will linger about the nature of the relationship between his campaign and this rogue group. And that wouldn't be healthy for Ken Buck or for the Republican Party.

Anyway, DeGrow takes his usual thousand words to essentially relate a he-said-she-said story alleging that this group never mailed Buck's opponent Jane Norton their "candidate survey." Since his only corroboration on that charge comes from, you know, the Norton campaign, it's tough to get overly worked up--and it's harder still to imagine that this one obscure group and their little survey are going to meaningfully affect Tuesday's caucus one way or the other.

No, making a bunch of plaintive noise about some little-known group "playing dirty" (clutch those pearls! Wasn't Norton the one playing dirty last fall?), indeed making the discussion about this group's 'tactics' instead of the candidates, is something we think serves Norton's purposes going into Tuesday more than the 'Taxpayers for Liberty' could ever help Buck.

Gotta Love Frivolous Ethics Complaints

by: Colorado Pols

Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 11:10:02 AM MDT

A Colorado Springs resident claims a state senator who is paying only $500 a month rent for a downtown Denver condo is violating the state's ethics laws.

A complaint filed this week with the Colorado Independent Ethics Commission says Sen. John Morse accepted something of value greater than $50, which was outlawed when voters in 2006 approved Amendment 41.

Morse, a Colorado Springs Democrat and the Senate majority leader, said he has done nothing wrong.

"That is nonsense," he said. "There is no way this is an Amendment 41 violation."

The complaint was filed by Brandon O'Dell, a Republican and a 25-year-old graduate student at the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs. O'Dell declined to provide information about what led him to file the complaint, who researched it and who wrote it, except to repeatedly cite unnamed "friends."

...Morse faces a tough re-election bid this year, from Republican Owen Hill, and said he believes questions about his living arrangements are politically motivated.

The complaint says the type of condo where Morse is staying rents for around $2,600 a month, which Morse said is "absolutely untrue."

"They are out of their mind," he said. "No one would pay $2,600 a month for a place where they can be kicked out on the weekends. I am basically subletting a room."

As ethics complaints go, this one seems especially thin--nobody's going to think that subletting a single room on weekdays should cost $2,600 a month, and we wouldn't be surprised to find many legislators who represent districts outside Denver have had to get creative to find an affordable place to sleep during the session. Like we pointed out when Rep. Steve King faced his own ethics questions recently, they don't make very much money. It's more than a little possible that you might find, if you look hard enough, some living arrangements substantially more 'creative' than Sen. Morse's, but that's for another blog post.

Combined with the fact that the complaint was initiated by a 25-year-old College Republican who doesn't want to talk about who helped him write it, citing only "friends?" Yeah, you already know very well what the purpose of this complaint is--direct mail glossies and robocalls. They've only got a few weeks, though, before the Amendment 41 commission laughs this one off, so we would expect to see those pretty quickly.

The Caucus Reconsidered

by: Dan Willis

Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 09:50:46 AM MST

If so, what system should we use?

Some thoughts on the subject follow the jump. Please contribute your own ideas as well.