Big Line Updates; Now, with Percentages!

We have occasionally changed the appearance of The Big Line from representing fractional odds to presenting percentages. It's a matter of preference, of course, but as Election Day nears and Colorado Pols attracts more and new readers, we figured now would be a good time to switch again to percentages.

Here's what we're currently thinking as to the main movers in the top races in Colorado. For the first time this cycle, we've also added Lines for State Senate and State House majorities, respectively.

U.S. SENATE
Mark Udall (65%)
Cory Gardner (35%)

Gardner has been throwing multiple messages at the wall of late, which is typically the sign of a campaign that doesn't feel confident in the direction it is headed. There's a saying in football that if you are rotating more than one quarterback into the game, then you don't really have a quarterback. If you're a Gardner fan, this is a very difficult question to answer: What is his path to victory here?

 

GOVERNOR
John Hickenlooper (68%)
Bob Beauprez (32%)

While there has never been a point in this race where it really felt like Gov. Hickenlooper was in trouble, Hick has made enough errors that it has provided Beauprez with an opportunity. Still, Beauprez can't win just by running a decent race; if Hick stops his stumble, there's not enough room for Beauprez to squeeze past in November.
 

ATTORNEY GENERAL, STATE TREASURER, SECRETARY OF STATE
With so much money going into races for the U.S. Senate and CD-6, there will be little oxygen left in the room for candidates in the other statewide races after Governor. It's difficult to tell at this stage whether any of the candidates will be able to do enough to make their own luck.
 

CD-6 (Aurora-ish)
Andrew Romanoff (54%)
Mike Coffman (46%)

We wrote earlier about our belief that Countdown Coffman is underway following incumbent Rep. Coffman's boorish behavior in last week's debates. We've been hearing consistent buzz that Romanoff is now rising steadily while Coffman seeks the momentum he needs to prevent a complete collapse.
 

STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (55%)
REPUBLICANS (45%)

We usually wait until this point in the cycle to attempt handicapping state legislative outcomes, but our analysis is similar to what we anticipated in the aftermath of the June Primary. Tea Party victories in two key Senate districts (SD-19 and SD-22) make winning the majority an uphill battle for Republicans.


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (75%)
REPUBLICANS (25%)

The ballot wasn't even completely settled until recently, but the direction of this battle has been clear for some time. Republicans have had difficulty even finding candidates for 2014; the GOP will be lucky not to lose a seat or two at this point.


Check out the full Big Line 2014 or comment below.

34 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DawnPatrol says:

    Gardner has NO path to victory, and the polls will soon reflect that. His candidacy was a terrible idea from the start — far too much politcal baggage, far too little name recognition, and an utterly sleazy persona. The guy never encountered a political position he couldn't or wouldn't attempt to co-opt if expediency demanded it.

    Coffman and Both Ways aren't even worth mentioning.

    Adios, los tres pobrecitos.

  2. DavieDavie says:

    I think there is some voter fraud going to happen in CD-3 — the turnout looks to be 110% :-)

  3. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Thanks for the percentages, Pols… a grateful readership can now stop puzzling over  "4 to 7 means what exactly?"

  4. hawkeye says:

    Colorado is fully a blue state, especially in state-wide political offices.  As in the rest of the country, the GOP has the most geographical territory but the Dems have the popular vote.

  5. Colorado PolsColorado Pols says:

    We always give it 110% effort.

    Oops

  6. nota33 says:

    Moderatus and Andrew Carnegie are balling their eyes out right now. The right wing wackos need tissues. LOL

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