(D) Mark Udall* (1-4)↑
Another strong fundraising quarter, combined with opponents' support of government shutdown, keeps Udall in command of this race.
(R) Ken Buck* (9-2)↓
Rumored to be falling out of favor with GOP bigwigs as rebranding efforts to avoid 2010 mistakes fail to take hold. Strong support for Ted Cruz not a good idea.
(R) Owen Hill* (9-2)↓
Good news for Hill is that media/DSCC continue to mention his name along with Buck, and fundraising numbers were pretty strong.
(R) Amy Stephens* (9-2)↑
After flirting with running for months, finally entered the race for real in October. She's symbolic of the GOP's troubles; might have best chance in General Election, but probably can't win a primary.
(R) Randy Baumgardner* (50-1)↓
"The Mustache" wasn't going to win this race, but Stephens' entry makes the odds too long; we wouldn't be surprised if Randy drops out before Christmas.
(D) John Hickenlooper* (1-4)
National Republican problems will plague GOP candidates for state office, too. Bottom line is unchanged: Republicans have nobody who can beat Hick.
(R) Scott Gessler* (5-1)
Gessler's default position at the top of the GOP contenders may be challenged by Kopp…if the latter can raise the money.
(R) Mike Kopp* (6-1)
Former state senator from Jefferson County has the better makeup of someone who could beat Hickenlooper, but is he really ready for a full-time campaign after leaving politics just a few years ago to spend more time with family?
(R) Tom Tancredo* (8-1)
Tancredo is what he is, and that isn't enough. But decent Q3 fundraising shows he's serious about the race.
(R) Greg Brophy* (20-1)↓
Brophy laid an egg in Q3 fundraising, an early stumble that may prove fatal to his campaign.
(D) Don Quick* (6-5)↓
Quicksand continues to disappoint with another awful fundraising quarter. He's running out of time to convince Democrats that he's a winner.
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (6-4)↑
Had a decent Q3 in fundraising, but more importantly, Quick was so bad that she doesn't have much ground to make up.
(R) Mark Waller* (2-1)↑
Waller's Q3 was decent, but if he's really committed to this race he may need to start thinking about resigning from the legislature to focus on fundraising full-time.
(D) Stan Garnett (14-1)
Almost certainly not running, but at what point to Democrats give up on Quick and start looking elsewhere?
(R) Ken Buck (OFF)
Running for U.S. Senate in 2014 instead.
(D) Morgan Carroll (OFF)
Told Denver Post in late June that she would not run.
(R) Walker Stapleton* (5-6)↑
Huge Q3 for Stapleton may help him pick up some momentum, but he's been so invisible since 2010 that incumbency will have little advantage.
(D) Betsy Markey* (6-5)↑
First fundraising period was solid, if unspectacular, but good enough to stake further claim on Democratic nomination.
(D) Pat Quinn* (OFF)
Withdrew from race in 11/13.
SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (1-1)
Finally has a GOP opponent, and may be more to come. Good Q3 fundraising should provide momentum.
(R) Wayne Williams* (2-1)
Republicans managed to find candidate as ethically-questionable as Gessler. We doubt El Paso County Clerk will have clear run to nomination.
(R) Pam Anderson (2-1)↓
Said she wouldn't challenge Gessler in a primary, but how about Gessler-lite (Williams)?
(D) Ken Gordon* (11-1)↓
Gordon is clearly not particularly interested in running, though he has yet to officially withdraw from the race.
(R) Scott Gessler (OFF)
Gessler is running for Governor instead of re-election.
(D) Diana DeGette* (1-10)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election, but we've always thought her vulnerable in a primary.
(D) Jared Polis* (1-10)
Polis will keep this seat as long as he likes, and likely won't try statewide run for many years (if ever).
CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (2-3)
Chatter among Democrats has been quiet for months, but government shutdown may draw new attention.
(D) Gail Schwartz (9-1)↓
Schwartz is term-limited in State Senate, so she has little to risk, but looks unlikely to run.
(D) Joe Garcia (9-1)↓
Quiet since rumors of potential candidacy in early 2013. Now appears likely to run with Hick again in '14.
CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Cory Gardner* (1-4)
Media needs to chuck "rising star" label. Gardner has tacked so far to the right that he'll have trouble ever running for higher office at this rate.
CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (1-5)
Timing is everything. Won crowded primary in '06 and has always been re-elected despite primary fights.
(D) Irv Halter* (9-1)
Good resume and background with strong military ties. But he's still a Democrat in a SOLID Republican district.
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (5-6)↑
Strategy is pretty simple for Romanoff: raise money and keep your head down while Coffman shoots himself in both feet.
(R) Mike Coffman* (6-4)↓
Few Republican incumbents suffered more during government shutdown. Coffman changed his mind daily (literally) and will pay for lack of leadership under barrage of negative ads sure to come.
CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (1-5)
Voter makeup will always entice Republicans, but Ed showed again in '12 that he can't be touched here.
The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…
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