The Big Line: 2014

Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race.

 

U.S. SENATE
(D) Mark Udall* (65%)
Udall continues to run solid, if unspectacular, campaign as we near the stretch run.

(R) Cory Gardner* (35%)
Gardner camp changing attacks and messages frequently, which signals degree of panic in GOP.

 


GOVERNOR
(D) John Hickenlooper* (68%)
Long thought to have the clearest path to November among statewide candidates, Hick losing momentum with self-inflicted wounds.

(R) Bob Beauprez* (32%)
The last time Beauprez was the Republican nominee for Governor (2006), he lost by 17 points. We feel this bears repeating.

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL
(D) Don Quick* (52%)
Can Quick keep Udall/Hickenlooper voters from splitting the ticket here?

(R) Cynthia Coffman* (48%)
Needs RAGA to do any real TV outreach.

 


STATE TREASURER
(R) Walker Stapleton* (60%)
Well-funded campaign, but taking some late hits that could have lingering effect.

(D) Betsy Markey* (40%)
Markey's fate likely to depend on turnout more than any other factor.
 


SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
It would be difficult to argue that Neguse is not the better candidate here, but at this point on the ballot, will voters be making informed decisions?

(R) Wayne Williams* (50%)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. Really bad at debates. Really lucky that voters may select him just to split their ballot.
 


CD-1 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.

 


CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Polis may see some minor decrease because of Frackapalooza, but we still don't bother listing opponent.

 


CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (65%)
Tipton benefits from low-profile race this year; outcome should follow whatever national trend emerges.

(D) Abel Tapia* (35%)
There's not much Tapia can do on his own here, but voter discontent with Congress overall could give him a shot.
 


CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
If Buck is not in Congress this time next year, something very strange will have happened.

(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Listed here only because this is an Open Seat. No real chance of winning.

 

(R) Cory Gardner (OFF)
Running for U.S. Senate instead of re-election.


CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)
Survived another Primary challenge, but will voters give him a pass on VA follies?

(D) Irv Halter* (30%)
Halter has a chance because he's a strong candidate; GOP-heavy district may be impenetrable, however.
 


CD-6 (AURORA)
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (54%)
Campaign has been as bland as it gets for such a high-profile race, but that works as long as Coffman keeps swerving all over the road.

(R) Mike Coffman* (46%)
Cracks are really showing for Coffman. Definitely moving in the wrong direction as Election Day nears.
 


CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (80%)
Perlmutter has demolished much stronger, and better-funded, candidates in the past. Should have no trouble here.

(R) Don Ytterberg* (20%)
Ask your friends if they know the name of Perlmutter's opponent; half-point if they know Perlmutter even has one.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (55%)
Dems have little margin for error with 1-seat advantage, but still the leaders in this clubhouse.

REPUBLICANS (45%)
Suffered serious blow to majority odds with outcome of June Primary.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (75%)
Pretty simple here: Democrats just have better candidates and stronger campaigns.

REPUBLICANS (25%)
Republicans still trying to make sure they have all of their candidates in place.

 


 


The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

28 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. CDW says:

    I don't understand the numbers after the names.  What do they mean?

  2. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Would really like to see Gessler run for Governor. I don't think that he's electable, too much ethics baggage and voter suppression history. But at least, we'd have a chance of getting a Secretary of State who actually cares about voters and elections.

  3. WestSloper says:

    On an Aspen NPR radio program last week, it was said Sen. Gail Schwartz was not running for 3rd CD.

  4. GalapagoLarryGalapagoLarry says:

    Wo, after all the suspense (and fright, fear, apprehension and, untimately, depression) Dianna's campaign has recovered. May we all bow our heads in silent gratitude.

  5. Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

    I think you're being kind to Mr. Baumgardner in giving him 1-18 odds.

  6. roccoprahn says:

    Betsy Markey was a very moderate Democrat that cast a very courageous yes vote on the Affordable Care Act.

    She sacrificed a slot in the US House of Representatives to vote her conscience, and the rubes in CD4 have only themselves to blame for the embarrassment that cory gardner has caused them.

    When you compare her resume with stapleton's, the difference in her professionalism, her experience since her early reagan days in '84 through her Homeland Security tenure, her business acumen and her pragmatism put up against stapleton's sunny but dim lemming personality and track record is stark and telling.

    Betsy Markey should win statewide, but she'll need money.

  7. HarleyHarley says:

    I recently got a phone call about Stan Garnett looking for money—any thing on that?

    If he isn't running–whu is he looking for money?

  8. JDuncs283 says:

    Gessler and Kopp are NOT the guys to get the job done against Hick.  They can be beaten with the same old dirty democrat playbook.  We need someone who stands out amongst the crowd and is willing to stand UP for ALL of Colorado.

  9. nikswhite7 says:

    Like Tancredo you mean???  He's a good conservative but absolutely unelectable statewide.  There is no way he can reach across to enough Dems to defeat Hickenlooper.  Good man but a losing candidate.  We need to win!

  10. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Pols, you should update the Sec of State line. Condolences to Ken Gordon's family.

  11. justavoter says:

    Who comes up with the odds?  Looking at the big line in the AGs race and Coffman has out raised both Quick and Waller for the past two quarters and you have Quick ahead in this race?  Waller is out, it's only pride keeping him in.  Quick has no competition and should be raising double what Coffman is if he is going to be competitive in the general election. Side by side comparison by any objective measurement and Coffman is the odds on favorite.

  12. yameniyeyameniye says:

    Is DC ready for Buffie?  I can imagine Andrew, Jared, Ed and Buffie doing Nellies for a Bronco's, Av's, Nuggets or Rockies game  (I doubt Mark, Michael and Diana would go there).

  13. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    "He'll [Mike] probably drop out near April 12 State Convention. "
    You guys suck at forecasting.

  14. the midwesterner says:

    When will we see some odds for control of the state house/senate?

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