*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.
(D) Mark Udall* (62%)
Udall had clear momentum in August and for most of September; while that momentum has slowed a bit, Udall is still in control of this race.
(R) Cory Gardner* (38%)↑
Gardner's campaign has been jumbled from day one with lots of changing narratives. Any momentum for Gardner is stunted by the campaign's lack of a consistent message.
(D) John Hickenlooper* (60%)↓
Like most politicos around the state, we'd be shocked if Hick doesn't win re-election (whatever the final margin).
(R) Bob Beauprez* (40%)
Beauprez still doesn't control his own fate. The race is closer than anyone might have thought, but don't mistake that to mean Beauprez has momentum.
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (51%)↑
This is a toss-up, but we've moved Coffman slightly ahead only because voters are likely to split the ticket after backing Udall and Hickenlooper.
(D) Don Quick* (49%)↓
As is the case with the State Treasurer and SOS races, this outcome depends mostly on voter turnout.
(R) Walker Stapleton* (55%)↓
Negative stories have more impact when there isn't much else to talk about. But the fact that there is nothing much to talk about benefits Stapleton greatly.
(D) Betsy Markey* (45%)↑
Markey making a strong late push, but how do you cut through the noise of multi-million dollar ad buys for Senate, Gov., and CO-6?
SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
Of the three downballot statewide races, this is the one where we think Democrats have the best chance; hard to see how an informed voter would not pick Neguse.
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Put it this way: we still don't see any reason to even bother listing his "opponent."
CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (75%)↑
Tipton won't debate Tapia because he doesn't need to bother; there's virtually zero attention on this race.
(D) Abel Tapia* (25%)↓
Tapia entered the race too late, and in the wrong cycle. Democrats need a very specific kind of environment to win in CD-3.
CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
There's really no scenario in which we see Buck losing this race. He can start measuring the curtains.
(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
If this wasn't an Open Seat we wouldn't even bother listing a challenger. Meyers has a teeny, tiny window to try to fit through.
CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)↓
Refuses to debate Halter for good strategic reasons: Nothing good happens when Lamborn opens his mouth.
(D) Irv Halter* (30%)↑
Halter is probably the strongest Democrat challenger in a decade, but the district makeup hasn't changed enough…yet.
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (55%)↑
We've been hearing consistent drumbeat that Romanoff is ahead, and Coffman campaign has given no reason to believe otherwise.
(R) Mike Coffman* (45%)↓
After 25 years in elected office, the end seems very real for a flustered, frustrated Coffman.
CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (85%)↑
Perlmutter has beaten much tougher opponents in more difficult election cycles.
(R) Don Ytterberg* (15%)↓
Five points if you can even name Perlmutter's opponent; 10 points if you can sort-of spell it correctly.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
Democrats have a lot of seats to defend, but each competitive race looks favorable.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
Democrats have better candidates, better campaigns, and better fundraising across the board.
Republican House Majority effort has been a disaster. Too many seats to win, not enough campaigns that can do it.
The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…
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