The Big Line: 2014

*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.
 

 

U.S. SENATE
(D) Mark Udall* (60%)
With ballots being mailed, we've reached the point where respective ground games take center stage. Democrats are historically much better at this than the GOP.

(R) Cory Gardner* (40%)
Gardner has had a tough week with poor debate performances and the continued unraveling of his narrative.

 


GOVERNOR
(D) John Hickenlooper* (64%)
Hickenlooper hitting his stride as we come down the stretch (watch for falling cliches!)

(R) Bob Beauprez* (36%)
Beauprez's biggest problem was always going to be the fact that he's, well, Bob Beauprez.

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (51%)
If both Udall and Hickenlooper win, as we still project, Coffman is the big beneficiary of a split-ticket.

(D) Don Quick* (49%)
As is the case with the State Treasurer and SOS races, this outcome depends mostly on voter turnout.

 


STATE TREASURER
(R) Walker Stapleton* (55%)
Stapleton's campaign is pretty nervous about TV ads that show he is rarely in the office. This race is so low-profile that one issue like this could be all it takes.

(D) Betsy Markey* (45%)
Markey has strong TV ad running now, and Stapleton is definitely spooked. But this would have done more damage with a better earned media focus 6 weeks ago; it might take more than just paid TV to reach enough voters.
 


SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
Hard to see how an informed voter would not pick Neguse. Unfortunately for Neguse, there probably aren't enough voters actually thinking about this race.

(R) Wayne Williams* (50%)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. Really bad at debates. Just really bad in general, but may win by virtue of being on the ballot at all.
 


CD-1 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.

 


CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Which newspaper endorsed Polis' opponent? We can't recall, because it won't make any difference.

 


CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (80%)
Tipton won't debate Tapia, which is usually a good indication that the incumbent has things well in hand.

(D) Abel Tapia* (20%)
Too little, too late, and too much else going on around him to get a foothold.
 


CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Buck could implode on "Meet the Press" just like he did in 2010…and probably still win easily in this heavily-Republican district.

(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Democrats wouldn't have much of a shot here anyway, but Meyers isn't quite a household name in CD-4.

 


CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)
Lamborn is putting together a good argument for worst Colorado Congressman…EVER.

(D) Irv Halter* (30%)
Halter would beat Lamborn at anything, anywhere, anytime…except maybe in GOP-heavy district like CO-5.
 


CD-6 (AURORA)
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (51%)
Romanoff is still a coin-flip away from sinking Coffman; let the GOTV begin!

(R) Mike Coffman* (49%)
After 25 years in elected office, the end seems very real for a flustered, frustrated Coffman.
 


CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (85%)
Perlmutter has beaten much tougher opponents in more difficult election cycles.

(R) Don Ytterberg* (15%)
We thought we saw a Ytterberg once.
 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (55%)
Democrats have a lot of seats to defend, but each competitive race looks favorable.

REPUBLICANS (45%)
Three of the most competitive Senate seats are in Jefferson County. Bad news for GOP.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (75%)
Democrats have better candidates, better campaigns, and better fundraising efforts across the board.

REPUBLICANS (25%)
Republican House Majority effort has been a disaster. We're guessing this is the last time Rep. Libby Szabo is put in charge of anything.

 


 


The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

43 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. CDW says:

    I don't understand the numbers after the names.  What do they mean?

  2. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Would really like to see Gessler run for Governor. I don't think that he's electable, too much ethics baggage and voter suppression history. But at least, we'd have a chance of getting a Secretary of State who actually cares about voters and elections.

  3. WestSloper says:

    On an Aspen NPR radio program last week, it was said Sen. Gail Schwartz was not running for 3rd CD.

  4. GalapagoLarryGalapagoLarry says:

    Wo, after all the suspense (and fright, fear, apprehension and, untimately, depression) Dianna's campaign has recovered. May we all bow our heads in silent gratitude.

  5. Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

    I think you're being kind to Mr. Baumgardner in giving him 1-18 odds.

  6. roccoprahn says:

    Betsy Markey was a very moderate Democrat that cast a very courageous yes vote on the Affordable Care Act.

    She sacrificed a slot in the US House of Representatives to vote her conscience, and the rubes in CD4 have only themselves to blame for the embarrassment that cory gardner has caused them.

    When you compare her resume with stapleton's, the difference in her professionalism, her experience since her early reagan days in '84 through her Homeland Security tenure, her business acumen and her pragmatism put up against stapleton's sunny but dim lemming personality and track record is stark and telling.

    Betsy Markey should win statewide, but she'll need money.

  7. HarleyHarley says:

    I recently got a phone call about Stan Garnett looking for money—any thing on that?

    If he isn't running–whu is he looking for money?

  8. JDuncs283 says:

    Gessler and Kopp are NOT the guys to get the job done against Hick.  They can be beaten with the same old dirty democrat playbook.  We need someone who stands out amongst the crowd and is willing to stand UP for ALL of Colorado.

  9. nikswhite7 says:

    Like Tancredo you mean???  He's a good conservative but absolutely unelectable statewide.  There is no way he can reach across to enough Dems to defeat Hickenlooper.  Good man but a losing candidate.  We need to win!

  10. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Pols, you should update the Sec of State line. Condolences to Ken Gordon's family.

  11. justavoter says:

    Who comes up with the odds?  Looking at the big line in the AGs race and Coffman has out raised both Quick and Waller for the past two quarters and you have Quick ahead in this race?  Waller is out, it's only pride keeping him in.  Quick has no competition and should be raising double what Coffman is if he is going to be competitive in the general election. Side by side comparison by any objective measurement and Coffman is the odds on favorite.

  12. yameniyeyameniye says:

    Is DC ready for Buffie?  I can imagine Andrew, Jared, Ed and Buffie doing Nellies for a Bronco's, Av's, Nuggets or Rockies game  (I doubt Mark, Michael and Diana would go there).

  13. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    "He'll [Mike] probably drop out near April 12 State Convention. "
    You guys suck at forecasting.

  14. the midwesterner says:

    When will we see some odds for control of the state house/senate?

  15. DenverMom says:

    Is this based on polling or just guesses?  The NYT has Colorado as a toss up in the Senate race.  

  16. Andrew Carnegie says:

    Gardner ahead in polls, increase percentage for Udall.

    Beauprez ahead in polls, increase percentage for Hick.

    Coffman-Romanoff, Prognosticators move race from toss-up to tilt Republican, increase percentage for Romanoff.

    As the Dems sink, Pols doubles down.

     

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