The Big Line: 2014

*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.
 

 

U.S. SENATE
(D) Mark Udall* (62%)
Udall had clear momentum in August and for most of September; while that momentum has slowed a bit, Udall is still in control of this race.

(R) Cory Gardner* (38%)
Gardner's campaign has been jumbled from day one with lots of changing narratives. Any momentum for Gardner is stunted by the campaign's lack of a consistent message.

 


GOVERNOR
(D) John Hickenlooper* (60%)
Like most politicos around the state, we'd be shocked if Hick doesn't win re-election (whatever the final margin).

(R) Bob Beauprez* (40%)
Beauprez still doesn't control his own fate. The race is closer than anyone might have thought, but don't mistake that to mean Beauprez has momentum.

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (51%)
This is a toss-up, but we've moved Coffman slightly ahead only because voters are likely to split the ticket after backing Udall and Hickenlooper.

(D) Don Quick* (49%)
As is the case with the State Treasurer and SOS races, this outcome depends mostly on voter turnout.

 


STATE TREASURER
(R) Walker Stapleton* (55%)
Negative stories have more impact when there isn't much else to talk about. But the fact that there is nothing much to talk about benefits Stapleton greatly.

(D) Betsy Markey* (45%)
Markey making a strong late push, but how do you cut through the noise of multi-million dollar ad buys for Senate, Gov., and CO-6?
 


SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
Of the three downballot statewide races, this is the one where we think Democrats have the best chance; hard to see how an informed voter would not pick Neguse.

(R) Wayne Williams* (50%)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. Really bad at debates. Fortunately for Williams, he may get swept into office just by being on the ballot.
 


CD-1 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.

 


CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Put it this way: we still don't see any reason to even bother listing his "opponent."

 


CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (75%)
Tipton won't debate Tapia because he doesn't need to bother; there's virtually zero attention on this race.

(D) Abel Tapia* (25%)
Tapia entered the race too late, and in the wrong cycle. Democrats need a very specific kind of environment to win in CD-3.
 


CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
There's really no scenario in which we see Buck losing this race. He can start measuring the curtains.

(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
If this wasn't an Open Seat we wouldn't even bother listing a challenger. Meyers has a teeny, tiny window to try to fit through.

 


CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)
Refuses to debate Halter for good strategic reasons: Nothing good happens when Lamborn opens his mouth.

(D) Irv Halter* (30%)
Halter is probably the strongest Democrat challenger in a decade, but the district makeup hasn't changed enough…yet.
 


CD-6 (AURORA)
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (55%)
We've been hearing consistent drumbeat that Romanoff is ahead, and Coffman campaign has given no reason to believe otherwise.

(R) Mike Coffman* (45%)
After 25 years in elected office, the end seems very real for a flustered, frustrated Coffman.
 


CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (85%)
Perlmutter has beaten much tougher opponents in more difficult election cycles.

(R) Don Ytterberg* (15%)
Five points if you can even name Perlmutter's opponent; 10 points if you can sort-of spell it correctly.
 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (55%)
Democrats have a lot of seats to defend, but each competitive race looks favorable.

REPUBLICANS (45%)
Don Suppes (SD-5) made national news for Tweets about white supremacy. Tim Neville (SD-16) probably wishes his sister-in-law would be quiet.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (75%)
Democrats have better candidates, better campaigns, and better fundraising across the board.

REPUBLICANS (25%)
Republican House Majority effort has been a disaster. Too many seats to win, not enough campaigns that can do it.

 


 


The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

43 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. CDW says:

    I don't understand the numbers after the names.  What do they mean?

  2. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Would really like to see Gessler run for Governor. I don't think that he's electable, too much ethics baggage and voter suppression history. But at least, we'd have a chance of getting a Secretary of State who actually cares about voters and elections.

  3. WestSloper says:

    On an Aspen NPR radio program last week, it was said Sen. Gail Schwartz was not running for 3rd CD.

  4. GalapagoLarryGalapagoLarry says:

    Wo, after all the suspense (and fright, fear, apprehension and, untimately, depression) Dianna's campaign has recovered. May we all bow our heads in silent gratitude.

  5. Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

    I think you're being kind to Mr. Baumgardner in giving him 1-18 odds.

  6. roccoprahn says:

    Betsy Markey was a very moderate Democrat that cast a very courageous yes vote on the Affordable Care Act.

    She sacrificed a slot in the US House of Representatives to vote her conscience, and the rubes in CD4 have only themselves to blame for the embarrassment that cory gardner has caused them.

    When you compare her resume with stapleton's, the difference in her professionalism, her experience since her early reagan days in '84 through her Homeland Security tenure, her business acumen and her pragmatism put up against stapleton's sunny but dim lemming personality and track record is stark and telling.

    Betsy Markey should win statewide, but she'll need money.

  7. HarleyHarley says:

    I recently got a phone call about Stan Garnett looking for money—any thing on that?

    If he isn't running–whu is he looking for money?

  8. JDuncs283 says:

    Gessler and Kopp are NOT the guys to get the job done against Hick.  They can be beaten with the same old dirty democrat playbook.  We need someone who stands out amongst the crowd and is willing to stand UP for ALL of Colorado.

  9. nikswhite7 says:

    Like Tancredo you mean???  He's a good conservative but absolutely unelectable statewide.  There is no way he can reach across to enough Dems to defeat Hickenlooper.  Good man but a losing candidate.  We need to win!

  10. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Pols, you should update the Sec of State line. Condolences to Ken Gordon's family.

  11. justavoter says:

    Who comes up with the odds?  Looking at the big line in the AGs race and Coffman has out raised both Quick and Waller for the past two quarters and you have Quick ahead in this race?  Waller is out, it's only pride keeping him in.  Quick has no competition and should be raising double what Coffman is if he is going to be competitive in the general election. Side by side comparison by any objective measurement and Coffman is the odds on favorite.

  12. yameniyeyameniye says:

    Is DC ready for Buffie?  I can imagine Andrew, Jared, Ed and Buffie doing Nellies for a Bronco's, Av's, Nuggets or Rockies game  (I doubt Mark, Michael and Diana would go there).

  13. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    "He'll [Mike] probably drop out near April 12 State Convention. "
    You guys suck at forecasting.

  14. the midwesterner says:

    When will we see some odds for control of the state house/senate?

  15. DenverMom says:

    Is this based on polling or just guesses?  The NYT has Colorado as a toss up in the Senate race.  

  16. Andrew Carnegie says:

    Gardner ahead in polls, increase percentage for Udall.

    Beauprez ahead in polls, increase percentage for Hick.

    Coffman-Romanoff, Prognosticators move race from toss-up to tilt Republican, increase percentage for Romanoff.

    As the Dems sink, Pols doubles down.

     

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