*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.
(D) Mark Udall* (60%)
With ballots being mailed, we've reached the point where respective ground games take center stage. Democrats are historically much better at this than the GOP.
(D) John Hickenlooper* (64%)↑
Hickenlooper hitting his stride as we come down the stretch (watch for falling cliches!)
(R) Bob Beauprez* (36%)↓
Beauprez's biggest problem was always going to be the fact that he's, well, Bob Beauprez.
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (51%)
If both Udall and Hickenlooper win, as we still project, Coffman is the big beneficiary of a split-ticket.
(D) Don Quick* (49%)
As is the case with the State Treasurer and SOS races, this outcome depends mostly on voter turnout.
(R) Walker Stapleton* (55%)↓
Stapleton's campaign is pretty nervous about TV ads that show he is rarely in the office. This race is so low-profile that one issue like this could be all it takes.
(D) Betsy Markey* (45%)↑
Markey has strong TV ad running now, and Stapleton is definitely spooked. But this would have done more damage with a better earned media focus 6 weeks ago; it might take more than just paid TV to reach enough voters.
SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
Hard to see how an informed voter would not pick Neguse. Unfortunately for Neguse, there probably aren't enough voters actually thinking about this race.
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Which newspaper endorsed Polis' opponent? We can't recall, because it won't make any difference.
CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (80%)↑
Tipton won't debate Tapia, which is usually a good indication that the incumbent has things well in hand.
(D) Abel Tapia* (20%)↓
Too little, too late, and too much else going on around him to get a foothold.
CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Buck could implode on "Meet the Press" just like he did in 2010…and probably still win easily in this heavily-Republican district.
(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Democrats wouldn't have much of a shot here anyway, but Meyers isn't quite a household name in CD-4.
CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)↓
Lamborn is putting together a good argument for worst Colorado Congressman…EVER.
(D) Irv Halter* (30%)↑
Halter would beat Lamborn at anything, anywhere, anytime…except maybe in GOP-heavy district like CO-5.
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (51%)
Romanoff is still a coin-flip away from sinking Coffman; let the GOTV begin!
(R) Mike Coffman* (49%)
After 25 years in elected office, the end seems very real for a flustered, frustrated Coffman.
CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (85%)↑
Perlmutter has beaten much tougher opponents in more difficult election cycles.
(R) Don Ytterberg* (15%)↓
We thought we saw a Ytterberg once.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
Democrats have a lot of seats to defend, but each competitive race looks favorable.
Three of the most competitive Senate seats are in Jefferson County. Bad news for GOP.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
Democrats have better candidates, better campaigns, and better fundraising efforts across the board.
Republican House Majority effort has been a disaster. We're guessing this is the last time Rep. Libby Szabo is put in charge of anything.
The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…
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