The Big Line: 2014

 

 

U.S. SENATE
(D) Mark Udall* (1-2)
Udall campaign marching right along as Gardner struggles to explain past positions.

(R) Cory Gardner* (2-1)
Gardner wrestling with finding new campaign strategy as it becomes clear Obamacare isn't enough.

 


GOVERNOR
(D) John Hickenlooper* (1-3)
Path to re-election still relatively clear as GOP chooses its nominee.

(R) Bob Beauprez* (3-1)
The last time Beauprez was the Republican nominee for Governor (2006), he lost by 17 points.

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL
(D) Don Quick* (4-5)
Needs to raise name ID, but still looks to have advantage over Coffman.

(R) Cynthia Coffman* (6-5)
Fundraising needs take precedence now as Coffman wins GOP nomination.

 


STATE TREASURER
(R) Walker Stapleton* (2-3)
Still the best GOP candidate at raising money, but will need to spend it wisely.

(D) Betsy Markey* (5-4)
Markey must figure out how to stay on radar of Democrats on a crowded ballot.
 


SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (4-7)
Solid campaign thus far, but how much is really in Neguse's control in down-ballot race?

(R) Wayne Williams* (6-5)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. If he wins, it will be by virtue of just being on ballot at right time.
 


CD-1 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (1-10)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election.

 


CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Jared Polis* (1-10)
Polis will keep this seat as long as he likes.

 


CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (2-3)
Definitely Tipton's job to lose.

(D) Abel Tapia* (3-2)
Lower-profile race on a busy ballot — can Tapia capture attention?
 


CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (1-6)
Virtual lock to win General Election after surprisingly easy Primary victory.

(D) Vic Meyers* (11-2)
Hard to see how Meyers can possibly overtake Buck in November.

 

(R) Cory Gardner (OFF)
Running for U.S. Senate instead of re-election.


CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (4-7)
Survives another Primary challenge and now looks to re-fill campaign coffers.

(D) Irv Halter* (11-10)
Halter has legitimate chance here, particularly with Bentley Rayburn forcing Lamborn to spend resources in June.
 


CD-6 (AURORA)
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (5-6)
Seems clear that money won't be deciding factor here — both candidates will get plenty of TV time.

(R) Mike Coffman* (6-5)
Coffman has struggled to find footing thus far.
 


CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (1-5)
Perlmutter has absolutely crushed everyone who has challenged him. No reason to think 2014 will be any different.

(R) Don Ytterberg* (9-1)
Will make half-hearted effort en route to double-digit loss in November.

 

 


 


The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

28 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. CDW says:

    I don't understand the numbers after the names.  What do they mean?

  2. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Would really like to see Gessler run for Governor. I don't think that he's electable, too much ethics baggage and voter suppression history. But at least, we'd have a chance of getting a Secretary of State who actually cares about voters and elections.

  3. WestSloper says:

    On an Aspen NPR radio program last week, it was said Sen. Gail Schwartz was not running for 3rd CD.

  4. GalapagoLarryGalapagoLarry says:

    Wo, after all the suspense (and fright, fear, apprehension and, untimately, depression) Dianna's campaign has recovered. May we all bow our heads in silent gratitude.

  5. Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

    I think you're being kind to Mr. Baumgardner in giving him 1-18 odds.

  6. roccoprahn says:

    Betsy Markey was a very moderate Democrat that cast a very courageous yes vote on the Affordable Care Act.

    She sacrificed a slot in the US House of Representatives to vote her conscience, and the rubes in CD4 have only themselves to blame for the embarrassment that cory gardner has caused them.

    When you compare her resume with stapleton's, the difference in her professionalism, her experience since her early reagan days in '84 through her Homeland Security tenure, her business acumen and her pragmatism put up against stapleton's sunny but dim lemming personality and track record is stark and telling.

    Betsy Markey should win statewide, but she'll need money.

  7. HarleyHarley says:

    I recently got a phone call about Stan Garnett looking for money—any thing on that?

    If he isn't running–whu is he looking for money?

  8. JDuncs283 says:

    Gessler and Kopp are NOT the guys to get the job done against Hick.  They can be beaten with the same old dirty democrat playbook.  We need someone who stands out amongst the crowd and is willing to stand UP for ALL of Colorado.

  9. nikswhite7 says:

    Like Tancredo you mean???  He's a good conservative but absolutely unelectable statewide.  There is no way he can reach across to enough Dems to defeat Hickenlooper.  Good man but a losing candidate.  We need to win!

  10. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Pols, you should update the Sec of State line. Condolences to Ken Gordon's family.

  11. justavoter says:

    Who comes up with the odds?  Looking at the big line in the AGs race and Coffman has out raised both Quick and Waller for the past two quarters and you have Quick ahead in this race?  Waller is out, it's only pride keeping him in.  Quick has no competition and should be raising double what Coffman is if he is going to be competitive in the general election. Side by side comparison by any objective measurement and Coffman is the odds on favorite.

  12. yameniyeyameniye says:

    Is DC ready for Buffie?  I can imagine Andrew, Jared, Ed and Buffie doing Nellies for a Bronco's, Av's, Nuggets or Rockies game  (I doubt Mark, Michael and Diana would go there).

  13. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    "He'll [Mike] probably drop out near April 12 State Convention. "
    You guys suck at forecasting.

  14. the midwesterner says:

    When will we see some odds for control of the state house/senate?

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