The Big Line: 2014

*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.
 

 

U.S. SENATE
(D) Mark Udall* (65%)
Udall remains in the driver's seat as Gardner flails away in search of some kind of effective message.

(R) Cory Gardner* (35%)
Gardner's campaign never really got off the ground in a strong fashion, and even the national media is starting to turn their attention elsewhere.

 


GOVERNOR
(D) John Hickenlooper* (60%)
For the first time in the 2014 Election Cycle, Hickenlooper does not have the best odds of winning a top competitive race (we now think it's Udall). That doesn't mean we think Hick will lose, however.

(R) Bob Beauprez* (40%)
Beauprez doesn't control his own fate, as we wrote earlier. He can't fix his own negatives while also dragging down Hickenlooper — not before ballots drop in mid-October.

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL
(D) Don Quick* (51%)
History suggests that one party has trouble winning Senate, Governor, and other statewide races like AG because Colorado voters tend to split their ticket.

(R) Cynthia Coffman* (49%)
Hasn't run a very good campaign, but only needs to minimize mistakes at this point.

 


STATE TREASURER
(R) Walker Stapleton* (55%)
Negative stories have more impact when there isn't much else to talk about.

(D) Betsy Markey* (45%)
Markey making a strong late push, but her fate probably depends on Senate and Gov. outcomes.
 


SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
Of the three downballot statewide races, this is the one where we think Democrats could take back a seat.

(R) Wayne Williams* (50%)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. Really bad at debates. If Wayne gets elected, it won't be because of anything he did to get there.
 


CD-1 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.

 


CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Put it this way: we still don't see any reason to even bother listing his "opponent." You can write this in pen.

 


CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (70%)
Tipton won't debate Tapia, which is a pretty good sign that he can cruise to re-election.

(D) Abel Tapia* (30%)
With competitive races for Senate, Governor, and in CD-6, there's just no oxygen left in the room for Tapia.
 


CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
If Buck is not in Congress this time next year, something very strange will have happened.

(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Listed here only because this is an Open Seat. No real chance of winning.

 

(R) Cory Gardner (OFF)
Running for U.S. Senate instead of re-election.


CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)
Refuses to debate Halter, because nothing good happens when Lamborn opens his mouth.

(D) Irv Halter* (30%)
Halter has a chance because he's a strong candidate and Lamborn is such a disgrace, but voter registration numbers still make things tough.
 


CD-6 (AURORA)
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (55%)
We've been hearing consistent drumbeat for weeks that Romanoff is slowly pulling ahead.

(R) Mike Coffman* (45%)
Cracks are really showing for Coffman. This may be the year that Coffman failures finally become too heavy to move aside.
 


CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (80%)
Perlmutter has demolished much stronger, and better-funded, candidates in the past. Should have no trouble here.

(R) Don Ytterberg* (20%)
Ask your friends if they know the name of Perlmutter's opponent; half-point if they know Perlmutter even has one.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (55%)
The margin for error is very small, but word on the street is that Senate Dems are in pretty good shape.

REPUBLICANS (45%)
Bottom line: GOP once again has bad candidates in winnable districts.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (75%)
Democrats just have better candidates and stronger campaigns.

REPUBLICANS (25%)
Republican House Majority effort has been nothing short of a nightmare. They might even lose a seat or two.

 


 


The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

35 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. CDW says:

    I don't understand the numbers after the names.  What do they mean?

  2. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Would really like to see Gessler run for Governor. I don't think that he's electable, too much ethics baggage and voter suppression history. But at least, we'd have a chance of getting a Secretary of State who actually cares about voters and elections.

  3. WestSloper says:

    On an Aspen NPR radio program last week, it was said Sen. Gail Schwartz was not running for 3rd CD.

  4. GalapagoLarryGalapagoLarry says:

    Wo, after all the suspense (and fright, fear, apprehension and, untimately, depression) Dianna's campaign has recovered. May we all bow our heads in silent gratitude.

  5. Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

    I think you're being kind to Mr. Baumgardner in giving him 1-18 odds.

  6. roccoprahn says:

    Betsy Markey was a very moderate Democrat that cast a very courageous yes vote on the Affordable Care Act.

    She sacrificed a slot in the US House of Representatives to vote her conscience, and the rubes in CD4 have only themselves to blame for the embarrassment that cory gardner has caused them.

    When you compare her resume with stapleton's, the difference in her professionalism, her experience since her early reagan days in '84 through her Homeland Security tenure, her business acumen and her pragmatism put up against stapleton's sunny but dim lemming personality and track record is stark and telling.

    Betsy Markey should win statewide, but she'll need money.

  7. HarleyHarley says:

    I recently got a phone call about Stan Garnett looking for money—any thing on that?

    If he isn't running–whu is he looking for money?

  8. JDuncs283 says:

    Gessler and Kopp are NOT the guys to get the job done against Hick.  They can be beaten with the same old dirty democrat playbook.  We need someone who stands out amongst the crowd and is willing to stand UP for ALL of Colorado.

  9. nikswhite7 says:

    Like Tancredo you mean???  He's a good conservative but absolutely unelectable statewide.  There is no way he can reach across to enough Dems to defeat Hickenlooper.  Good man but a losing candidate.  We need to win!

  10. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Pols, you should update the Sec of State line. Condolences to Ken Gordon's family.

  11. justavoter says:

    Who comes up with the odds?  Looking at the big line in the AGs race and Coffman has out raised both Quick and Waller for the past two quarters and you have Quick ahead in this race?  Waller is out, it's only pride keeping him in.  Quick has no competition and should be raising double what Coffman is if he is going to be competitive in the general election. Side by side comparison by any objective measurement and Coffman is the odds on favorite.

  12. yameniyeyameniye says:

    Is DC ready for Buffie?  I can imagine Andrew, Jared, Ed and Buffie doing Nellies for a Bronco's, Av's, Nuggets or Rockies game  (I doubt Mark, Michael and Diana would go there).

  13. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    "He'll [Mike] probably drop out near April 12 State Convention. "
    You guys suck at forecasting.

  14. the midwesterner says:

    When will we see some odds for control of the state house/senate?

  15. DenverMom says:

    Is this based on polling or just guesses?  The NYT has Colorado as a toss up in the Senate race.  

Leave a Reply

Comment from your Facebook account


You may comment with your Colorado Pols account above (click here to register), or via Facebook below.