*NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race
Numbers should not be read as estimations of final margins of victory.
(D) Mark Udall* (65%)↑
Udall remains in the driver's seat as Gardner flails away in search of some kind of effective message.
(R) Cory Gardner* (35%)↓
Gardner's campaign never really got off the ground in a strong fashion, and even the national media is starting to turn their attention elsewhere.
(D) John Hickenlooper* (60%)↓
For the first time in the 2014 Election Cycle, Hickenlooper does not have the best odds of winning a top competitive race (we now think it's Udall). That doesn't mean we think Hick will lose, however.
(R) Bob Beauprez* (40%)
Beauprez doesn't control his own fate, as we wrote earlier. He can't fix his own negatives while also dragging down Hickenlooper — not before ballots drop in mid-October.
(D) Don Quick* (51%)↓
History suggests that one party has trouble winning Senate, Governor, and other statewide races like AG because Colorado voters tend to split their ticket.
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (49%)↑
Hasn't run a very good campaign, but only needs to minimize mistakes at this point.
(R) Walker Stapleton* (55%)↓
Negative stories have more impact when there isn't much else to talk about.
(D) Betsy Markey* (45%)↑
Markey making a strong late push, but her fate probably depends on Senate and Gov. outcomes.
SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
Of the three downballot statewide races, this is the one where we think Democrats could take back a seat.
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Put it this way: we still don't see any reason to even bother listing his "opponent." You can write this in pen.
CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (70%)
Tipton won't debate Tapia, which is a pretty good sign that he can cruise to re-election.
(D) Abel Tapia* (30%)
With competitive races for Senate, Governor, and in CD-6, there's just no oxygen left in the room for Tapia.
CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
If Buck is not in Congress this time next year, something very strange will have happened.
(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Listed here only because this is an Open Seat. No real chance of winning.
(R) Cory Gardner (OFF)
Running for U.S. Senate instead of re-election.
CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)↓
Refuses to debate Halter, because nothing good happens when Lamborn opens his mouth.
(D) Irv Halter* (30%)↑
Halter has a chance because he's a strong candidate and Lamborn is such a disgrace, but voter registration numbers still make things tough.
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (55%)↑
We've been hearing consistent drumbeat for weeks that Romanoff is slowly pulling ahead.
(R) Mike Coffman* (45%)↓
Cracks are really showing for Coffman. This may be the year that Coffman failures finally become too heavy to move aside.
CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (80%)↑
Perlmutter has demolished much stronger, and better-funded, candidates in the past. Should have no trouble here.
(R) Don Ytterberg* (20%)↓
Ask your friends if they know the name of Perlmutter's opponent; half-point if they know Perlmutter even has one.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
The margin for error is very small, but word on the street is that Senate Dems are in pretty good shape.
Bottom line: GOP once again has bad candidates in winnable districts.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
Democrats just have better candidates and stronger campaigns.
Republican House Majority effort has been nothing short of a nightmare. They might even lose a seat or two.
The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…
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