The Big Line: 2014

 

 

U.S. SENATE
(D) Mark Udall* (1-2)
Udall plugging right along toward November.

(R) Cory Gardner* (2-1)
Gardner has the GOP field cleared, but must figure out how to define himself. Obamacare won't do it alone.

 

(R) Randy Baumgardner* (OFF)
"The Mustache" fails to make the ballot, can stop pretending to be a real Senate candidate.
(R) Owen Hill* (OFF)
Dropped out of race on 3/17
(R) Ken Buck (OFF)
Dropping out to run for CD-4 instead.
(R) Amy Stephens* (OFF)
Dropped out in late February and endorsed Gardner.


GOVERNOR
(D) John Hickenlooper* (1-5)
Starting to pull away from field and should only benefit from contentious GOP.

(R) Tom Tancredo* (4-1)
Still the frontrunner among Republicans, particularly in 4-candidate field.

(R) Bob Beauprez* (5-1)
Made it onto the ballot via petition process (just barely).

(R) Scott Gessler* (8-1)
Campaign losing momentum fast after disappointing finish at State Convention despite big expectations.

(R) Mike Kopp* (15-1)
Made top-line on ballot at Convention, but recent history has not been kind to GOP Assembly winners.


(R) Greg Brophy* (OFF)
Failed to make ballot at GOP State Convention, so his campaign is over.


ATTORNEY GENERAL
(D) Don Quick* (1-1)
Next fundraising report (due in May) will be vital for Quick as he makes case with large donors.

(R) Cynthia Coffman* (6-5)
Almost had enough support at State Convention to keep Waller off ballot.

(R) Mark Waller* (7-4)
Hanging on by the slimmest of margins; barely made the ballot, and limping along financially.

 


STATE TREASURER
(R) Walker Stapleton* (5-6)
He's been the GOP's best fundraiser in the 2014 cycle, which has tempered support for Markey.

(D) Betsy Markey* (3-2)
Her campaign is being largely forgotten among other races; needs a spark, and soon.
 


SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (1-1)
Solid campaign has Neguse in the driver's seat for November.

(R) Wayne Williams* (3-1)
Really, really, really bad at fundraising. Can't win in November just by having his name on the ballot.
 

(R) Scott Gessler (OFF)
Gessler is running for Governor instead of re-election.

 


CD-1 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (1-10)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election.

 


CD-2 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Jared Polis* (1-10)
Polis will keep this seat as long as he likes.

 


CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (2-3)
Definitely Tipton's job to lose, but Tapia could be surprising.

(D) Abel Tapia* (3-2)
If he can raise even a modest amount of money, anger with GOP-led Congress gives him a chance.
 

(D) Buffie McFadyen* (OFF)
Well, that was fun. Dropped out in mid-March after just a few weeks as a candidate.


CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Scott Renfroe* (1-1)
Makes one of biggest jumps in Big Line history (from 5-1) after impressive GOP Assembly victory.

(R) Ken Buck* (6-5)
Getting Cory Gardner's endorsement didn't get him top-line on the ballot. Losing momentum in a hurry.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer* (9-4)
Hoping to make the ballot via petition after failing at Assembly. Campaign is struggling.

(R) Steve Laffey* (10-1)
Also trying to petition onto ballot, and spending lots of his own money to raise name ID. Needs Kirkmeyer to also make ballot to have a chance.

(D) Vic Meyers* (25-1)
Was running against Gardner for months, but won't have it much easier against GOP Primary winner.

 

(R) Cory Gardner (OFF)
Running for U.S. Senate instead of re-election.


CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (2-3)
No other incumbent in the entire country raised less money in Q1 than Lamborn. This may be the year he finally falls by his own incompetence.

(R) Bentley Rayburn* (3-2)
Surprised with late entry into race, but still had enough support to make ballot at GOP Assembly. If he can raise money quickly, Lamborn is in trouble.

(D) Irv Halter* (4-1)
Halter has legitimate chance here…unless Rayburn wins the GOP Primary.
 


CD-6 (AURORA)
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (5-6)
Romanoff is raising money at an incredible pace, but should be doing more with earned media now.

(R) Mike Coffman* (6-5)
The way this is going, we'd almost be surprised if Coffman is re-elected. Fundraising aside, he's been terrible on the stump.
 


CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (1-5)
Perlmutter has absolutely crushed everyone who has challenged him. No reason to think 2014 will be any different.

(R) Don Ytterberg* (9-1)
Will make half-hearted effort en route to double-digit loss in November.

 

 


 


The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

24 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. CDW says:

    I don't understand the numbers after the names.  What do they mean?

  2. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Would really like to see Gessler run for Governor. I don't think that he's electable, too much ethics baggage and voter suppression history. But at least, we'd have a chance of getting a Secretary of State who actually cares about voters and elections.

  3. WestSloper says:

    On an Aspen NPR radio program last week, it was said Sen. Gail Schwartz was not running for 3rd CD.

  4. GalapagoLarryGalapagoLarry says:

    Wo, after all the suspense (and fright, fear, apprehension and, untimately, depression) Dianna's campaign has recovered. May we all bow our heads in silent gratitude.

  5. Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

    I think you're being kind to Mr. Baumgardner in giving him 1-18 odds.

  6. roccoprahn says:

    Betsy Markey was a very moderate Democrat that cast a very courageous yes vote on the Affordable Care Act.

    She sacrificed a slot in the US House of Representatives to vote her conscience, and the rubes in CD4 have only themselves to blame for the embarrassment that cory gardner has caused them.

    When you compare her resume with stapleton's, the difference in her professionalism, her experience since her early reagan days in '84 through her Homeland Security tenure, her business acumen and her pragmatism put up against stapleton's sunny but dim lemming personality and track record is stark and telling.

    Betsy Markey should win statewide, but she'll need money.

  7. HarleyHarley says:

    I recently got a phone call about Stan Garnett looking for money—any thing on that?

    If he isn't running–whu is he looking for money?

  8. JDuncs283 says:

    Gessler and Kopp are NOT the guys to get the job done against Hick.  They can be beaten with the same old dirty democrat playbook.  We need someone who stands out amongst the crowd and is willing to stand UP for ALL of Colorado.

  9. nikswhite7 says:

    Like Tancredo you mean???  He's a good conservative but absolutely unelectable statewide.  There is no way he can reach across to enough Dems to defeat Hickenlooper.  Good man but a losing candidate.  We need to win!

  10. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Pols, you should update the Sec of State line. Condolences to Ken Gordon's family.

  11. justavoter says:

    Who comes up with the odds?  Looking at the big line in the AGs race and Coffman has out raised both Quick and Waller for the past two quarters and you have Quick ahead in this race?  Waller is out, it's only pride keeping him in.  Quick has no competition and should be raising double what Coffman is if he is going to be competitive in the general election. Side by side comparison by any objective measurement and Coffman is the odds on favorite.

  12. yameniyeyameniye says:

    Is DC ready for Buffie?  I can imagine Andrew, Jared, Ed and Buffie doing Nellies for a Bronco's, Av's, Nuggets or Rockies game  (I doubt Mark, Michael and Diana would go there).

  13. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    "He'll [Mike] probably drop out near April 12 State Convention. "
    You guys suck at forecasting.

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