Percentages reflect Colorado Pols' estimated chances of winning a particular race.
(D) Mark Udall* (65%)↑
Udall continues to run solid, if unspectacular, campaign as we near the stretch run.
(R) Cory Gardner* (35%)↓
Gardner camp changing attacks and messages frequently, which signals degree of panic in GOP.
(D) John Hickenlooper* (68%)↓
Long thought to have the clearest path to November among statewide candidates, Hick losing momentum with self-inflicted wounds.
(R) Bob Beauprez* (32%)↑
The last time Beauprez was the Republican nominee for Governor (2006), he lost by 17 points. We feel this bears repeating.
(D) Don Quick* (52%)↑
Can Quick keep Udall/Hickenlooper voters from splitting the ticket here?
(R) Cynthia Coffman* (48%)↓
Needs RAGA to do any real TV outreach.
(R) Walker Stapleton* (60%)↑
Well-funded campaign, but taking some late hits that could have lingering effect.
(D) Betsy Markey* (40%)↑
Markey's fate likely to depend on turnout more than any other factor.
SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Joe Neguse* (50%)
It would be difficult to argue that Neguse is not the better candidate here, but at this point on the ballot, will voters be making informed decisions?
(D) Diana DeGette* (99%)
DeGette isn't going to lose a General Election. Period.
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)
Polis may see some minor decrease because of Frackapalooza, but we still don't bother listing opponent.
CD-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Scott Tipton* (65%)
Tipton benefits from low-profile race this year; outcome should follow whatever national trend emerges.
(D) Abel Tapia* (35%)
There's not much Tapia can do on his own here, but voter discontent with Congress overall could give him a shot.
CD-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
If Buck is not in Congress this time next year, something very strange will have happened.
(D) Vic Meyers* (20%)
Listed here only because this is an Open Seat. No real chance of winning.
(R) Cory Gardner (OFF)
Running for U.S. Senate instead of re-election.
CD-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)↓
Survived another Primary challenge, but will voters give him a pass on VA follies?
(D) Irv Halter* (30%)↑
Halter has a chance because he's a strong candidate; GOP-heavy district may be impenetrable, however.
(D) Andrew Romanoff* (54%)↑
Campaign has been as bland as it gets for such a high-profile race, but that works as long as Coffman keeps swerving all over the road.
(R) Mike Coffman* (46%)↓
Cracks are really showing for Coffman. Definitely moving in the wrong direction as Election Day nears.
CD-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Ed Perlmutter* (80%)↑
Perlmutter has demolished much stronger, and better-funded, candidates in the past. Should have no trouble here.
(R) Don Ytterberg* (20%)↓
Ask your friends if they know the name of Perlmutter's opponent; half-point if they know Perlmutter even has one.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
Dems have little margin for error with 1-seat advantage, but still the leaders in this clubhouse.
Suffered serious blow to majority odds with outcome of June Primary.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
Pretty simple here: Democrats just have better candidates and stronger campaigns.
Republicans still trying to make sure they have all of their candidates in place.
The "Big Line" and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2014 election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win based on inside information and our analysis of that information. Think of it like a betting line,…
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