In the latest round of polling from Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports, their data shows a tightening race–especially for Andrew Romanoff.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state finds Republican Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton in a virtual tie with former Democratic state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Norton earns 44% of the vote to Romanoff’s 42%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.
Norton has been the clear leader in the race in several previous surveys. She led Romanoff by 12 points in January, but the gap between the two narrowed to seven points – 45% to 38% – last month.
Against Bennet, however, Norton still posts a nine-point lead, 48% to 39%. Last month, she led the incumbent 51% to 37%, a two-point gain from January. Seven percent (7%) favor another candidate. Six percent (6%) are undecided.
The poll robo-called 500 likely voters, and contains a +/- 4.5% margin of error.
For Andrew Romanoff, these are the kinds of numbers the campaign has been waiting for. Despite the fact that Rasmussen’s methodology has been repeatedly questioned, in this poll, methodologies aside, Romanoff is the stronger Democratic candidate against every potential Republican candidate. Against Buck and Norton, he is well within the margin of error.
While this poll clearly favors Romanoff, the Bennet camp can take heart from the fact that Bennet gained five points on his likely general election foe in the span of just two months–without having put up ads on TV and radio criticizing opponents like Norton, and e-mailing negative YouTube ads like Romanoff.
Without another polling outfit consistently taking a barometer of this race, it’s hard to tell where the numbers actually lie. However, a recent Research 2000 poll showed Bennet leading Norton by 1 point.
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It’s a liberal organization. He’s been hitting Bennet from the left.
They show Bennet leading.
I’d give more credence to a poll that should favor Romanoff but doesn’t, than a Conservative outfit that wants Democratic division.
All I can do is analyze the data we’re given. Research 2000 could prove to be more accurate, but they need to poll the race more.
Rasmussen has been following this race for a while now, so it’s easier to spot trends and correlations.
as you know. The right is interested in promoting the primary for as long as possible.
That’s just the name of the game. If I’m Romanoff and I see these numbers, I’m thinking second wind.
He’s relying on Republican talking points, polls, and news outlets.
I have the Personal pac activity, and his financial statement from the SOS office.
Debbie Fischer said I was lying about it.
Should I publish the links?
Seriously. I know they have this rap as a super-left-wing group, but their template is more that they’d rather see a conservative Dem succeed in, say, Wyoming, than a Republican.
That said, do they favor progressive outcomes? Sure – but not necessarily to the exclusion of electoral success.
His race has momentum.
who is statistically tied with Norton.
but yeah, it is good to see the GOP losing steam in the race.
i imagine the moves by Bennet to pass legislation and Romanoff’s campaigning have led to both getting more positive press.
Much like the Clinton – Edwards – Obama and eventually Clinton – Obama primary, this primary is keeping all the media attention focused on the Dem side of the aisle – making both candidates more well known (and although you may not agree, it is also, I believe making Bennet more progressive)
You’re all funny!
“Wow, this poll is great! Bennet will only lose by NINE points! Yeah!”
or better yet, “Yeah, Romanoff will tank after a month when his office has to close because they can’t pay any bills!”
thanks for using what i presume is your real name.
however, it is hard to verify the opinions of bloggers who have cropped up here in the past 2 months (such as yourself, starting in feb.) – just as this Senate race is becoming competitive.what brings you to this site?
Obviously not.
The Research200 poll was paid for – I forget the shell front group’s name – but a quick Google found a quote on the front page of their own website “… the group pushing hardest for the public option..”
Its just an amazing coincidence that the poll they paid for found an astounding level of support for the public option from our neighbors!
Who knows how accurate they are. I sure don’t. I haven’t seen the exact number of people they called. What time of day. What list of names, where they obtained the list.
The actualy questions asked each time, etc, etc.
Without any of that information you are all screaming into a hurricane in the dark. Its a pointless, usells exerecise that may make you feel better, but doesn’t do anything else.
BUT a poll like that is useful for tracking trends. IF they are at all a decent group, their questions, sample sise and pool sources will remain consistent…
Thus watching the trend line IS worthwhile.
And for that it just means that Bennet has to actually start taking Romanoff apart. If he wants to win that is.
But generally- they also don’t adjust for likely voters or partisan voter reg distribution.
In short- the numbers aren’t the greatest.
I’m sure both D nominees have their own internals. I’m sure both know what they want to know about the likely D voters.