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November 06, 2010 05:55 PM UTC

Poll: What Did You Least Expect?

  • 107 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Looking back on a long 2010 election season, there are events that any of us can point to as unexpected, some more than others–Michael Bennet’s narrow U.S. Senate victory, John Hickenlooper’s anticlimactic stomping of Tom Tancredo, the GOP pickup of two congressional seats, or the successful defense of the Democratic majority in the Colorado Senate. There’s also the unusual closeness of legislative races generally this year compared to other years, and the very small (and still technically pending) GOP margin of victory in the Colorado House.

And we can’t forget all the game-changing things that happened along the way setting up Tuesday’s outcome, like the self-destruction of gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis, or the loss of the once-heavily favored Jane Norton in the GOP U.S. Senate primary.

Of all the twists and turns this election took, what surprised you the most? A poll follows.

What was the most unexpected development of the 2010 elections?

View Results

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107 thoughts on “Poll: What Did You Least Expect?”

  1. The failure of 60, 61, 63, and 101 while also electing Bennet but also electing the R AG, SOS and House.

    I haven’t done the math, but it would seem that voters who voted no on 63, also voted  Suthers for AG. Not a massive contradiction, but some.

    Likewise, voting now on 60, 61 and 101, but Walker for Treasurer.

    And some of these same voters must have voted for Hick and Bennet.

    How do you vote Suthers, Walker and Contin but also Bennet?

    1. Many ‘conservatives”, or conservative leaning independents must have voted Democratic at the top of the ticket.

      It could be that Buck and Tancredo were too right of center for their taste.

      I think that most angry Dems probably undervoted or voted 3rd party in the Senate race.

      I can’t explain how a hit and run drunk driver won a statewide election. That’s why I found it harder to believe than Rep. Salazar’s loss.

      1. required at least one prior DUI?

        Let’s see, we had the DUI President . . ., his multi-DUI Overlord VP . . .,

        Stapleton’s got all the qualifications for a big future in the highest circles of his party.

            1. a hit and run does reflect on character. Somebody got hit. I assume that they didn’t testify which is the only reason not to prosecute.

              Every hit and run drunk driver can now have political aspirations in Colorado.

              I suppose that felons should be able to vote, and run for high office as well.(snark)

              So bull feces back to you, Jambalaya.

          2. Jesus Christ!  If the cops dropped the charges, what do you want him to do?  Build a jail for himself and get in it?

            That whole negative line was total crap, and it made me that much more happy that he won.

    2. ….does no one listen to me?

      I’ve explained at length (or, in maybe in summary) that the defeat of 63 was tied to the wave of NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO on all amendments.  Anything that required a second’s thought received a NO vote.  So, the loss of 63 had jack-all to do with the victory of Suthers and anything else!  So sayeth me, modestly and with a retiring attitude.

        1. As for legistlative initiatives, if our troupe of statehouse clowns lacks the cojones to pass an issue during regular business hours, why reward their fecklessness?  (Could they really believe that they were elected just to resolve to honor the Buffalo?)

          As for citizen initiatives, why should I agree to live with the unintended consequences of something what my seriously wacko neighbor and a few thousand of his newly-purchased best friends think should or shouldn’t be done?

          Is it possible that Coloradoans (Coloradans?) have finally learned a political lesson?  This election holds some slight evidence.

    1. Buescher’s pathetic response to a charge of rank cronyism and conflict-of-interest by Colorado’s major daily did him in with the public.

      What may seem like just insider politics to many on this blog, when exposed, looks like political corruption to the public.

      Buescher was caught with his proverbial pants down.

    1. I think that two factors played in Gessler’s win.  It was a likely spot for the Wave vote to hit.  Despite problems in the top two races, the wave was real.  Dems did a great job fighting it in Colorado by doing their best to individualize each race as evident in their state senate hold and Bennet’s win.

      The other major sinking factor for Buescher was the military ballot problem.  He did ultimately get them out on time (proof that he didn’t need the waiver to begin with) but his very public waiver request stung him.  I think people saw it as incompetence.  Whether that’s fair or not is another discussion, but I believe that was the perception.  It probably actually hurt him that he did manage to get them sent out on time because pulling it off signaled to the folks that he never needed the waiver request to begin with.

      I don’t know, just a few thoughts regarding that race.  I definately agree that he didn’t have much of a campaign in place based on interactions that the campaign I worked on and others in our area had with them.

      Without that military ballot situation, Buescher might well have held on.

      1. That I don’t think it was an issue that sunk him.

        If Kennedy had won and Buescher lost, or had the Democratic regent candidate won and Buescher lost, I would suspect an issue.  As it is, I’m chalking it up to the “wave.”

        1. I would agree.  There was an extra element on the ballot in the SoS race though and that was the ACN candidate that pulled in a shocking 7% of the vote.  Had it been a pure R/D race most of that vote would have gone Gessler and we’d be seeing a result almost as wide as the Suthers’ win.

          Taking that into account, I do think the military ballot issue had a wide effect.  I see you point though.

      2. I would add to that that the one thing most business owners knew about SOS was that it was leaving them open to fraud. So that was another small chunk that was part of the difference between win and lose for Bernie.

              1. Bernie’s loss had nothing to do with anything real, regarding military ballots  or petty business owner conspiracy theories or anything else.  It was pure party-line voting and that’s it.

                Also, I may have oversimplified/misrepresented your position, but I needed to do it in order to express my large agreement!  Because I believe it.  Apologies!

                🙂

  5. The polling on Dan Maes seemed to seal the GOP’s destiny to fall to minor party status, but he managed better than 10% of the vote.

    While everyone with a functioning cerebral cortex wrote Maes off as an historically inept candidate (neck and neck with Alvin Greene) he wasn’t quite toxic enough to kill off the Republicans. He just didn’t suck enough.

    1. Even though MAES had been polling extremely low, I always felt that enough people would mark the R on their ballot without thinking to make sure that Maes and the Republican part would get the 10% they needed.

    2. I have heard rumors (not substantiated) that GOP party folks were calling their most ardent supporters (ie- committee members and maybe caucus goers) and asked them to bite the bullet and vote for Maes for the sole purpose of bringing his vote over the 10% threshold.

      I am told it was this last minute calling that caused so may provisional ballots in some places. People who had already filled out their ballots but not turned them in yet had to get replacements or vote provisionally to change their votes from Tanc to Maes.

      Its plausible, but not sure if I believe it or not.

  6. Yes, the GOP retained access to the top two lines on tomorrow’s ballots, but…

    I think it’s survival as a major party–in Colorado–in other respects is still to be decided.

    * What is Tanc going to do now? Will he rejoin the GOP? Will it welcome him? Or will he splinter off? Like him or not, he leads a sizable faction that could cause havoc for a “major party”, whichever he does.

    * What is Buck going to do now? A true and representative Republican, he picked up a lot of baggage this time around that he’ll be carrying forward if he chooses to run again for anything.

    * What’s Wadham going to do now? Stay and fight for his (cush) job or slink off to sabotage another state’s GOP? If he tries to stay, I’m thinking it’ll fracture the old-boy Republican leadership here, and the GOP is going to need a few adults in the coming years. Palin hasn’t made her last trip to this state.

    * What is the GOP going to do now? Are they looking around for another disgraced city or county attorney to lift from obscurity? Will it scramble helplessly to try to keep another of its “star” apples from falling off the cart into the ACP barrel? Which way will the Colorado GOP twist to escape the backwash from this last “wave”?

    There’s “major party”, and then there’s major party.

        1. with the subject line “Protect our kids from digital intruders.”  

          The message begins,

          “Greetings,

          Now that the elections are over, I thought I would send you a completely non-political email that provides something that might actually help you and your family now! It’s a new service to help protect your kids when they send or receive texts and emails from their cell phone. This service is called MouseMail, created by friends of mine at Safe Communications, Inc.”

          The message describes the service, and includes a link to a video of William Bennett, former U.S. Secretary of Education, discussing the importance of MouseMail on CNN.

          Hmmmmm.

  7. but I think the transparency of the plagiarism by Scooter ties it.

    We have lost an absolutely terrific Treasurer. If Stapleton ONLY does exactly what Cary has done he will also do well. Not because of any great gifts, but from a realization that he doesn’t have a clue and she did the job exceedingly well.

    I am confident that Cary will go on to do something approaching greatness. I hope it is here in CO.

  8. but, while I was surprised Hick’s win and Perlmutter’s showed the polls to be so far off, the rest of the stuff listed  was no longer so surprising by election day.  What absolutely stunned me was the Joe Rice loss here in HD38 to such a completely unqualified twit.  Joe was strongly supported by all the major business groups, had sterling centrist credentials, had  been recognized twice as legislator of the year and a record of getting things done by working across the aisle and not infrequently clashing with his own party.

    He had won both his previous elections handily and had spent the last four years returning every call and e-mail, inviting everyone from all sides to multiple town meetings every month. Hickenlooper, who turned out to be way more popular than advertised, strongly supported him with joint appearances.

    I don’t know it for a fact but it seems to me the amount of money employed to crush Joe must have been unprecedented for an HD seat. It’s not just that our guy  lost but that the winner is absolutely, by no stretch of the imagination, qualified in any way, shape or form, for the job.  

    We’re going from having a guy who was on everybody’s list as among the most  successful freshman and named best legislator twice to the very least and lowest in the entire State Assembly. HD38 Dems were sure that the polls showing a close race (with Conti up by a point or so) were flawed (they sure turned out to be in other races) and that Joe would prevail.  

    We’re pretty sick about it. As for Joe, his first and major concern was that he had let his supporters and campaign team down.  We just hope he believes us when we tell him he did no such thing. We’re as proud of him as ever.  

    1. All of it.  From unqualified opponent to still loving Joe.

      Maybe Hick will pick him up for something?  Anything?  The state is better off with him active.

      1. He also has a highly successful military career with brilliant opportunities there and elsewhere.  It’s our loss, not his. If Joe wants to stay in politics, good for us. If not, probably way more lucrative for him.

        Those of us who have come to know him over the years may selfishly want him back but, above all, wish him the brightest future possible, whatever he does.  He deserves it. He and his family have well and truly earned it.

    2. I think the LPS voters  felt like “well, we gotta fund our schools, but the roads, well, my fees went up so that’s just bad”

      The media push about how Joe Rice raised the vehicle fees was very effective.

      As for Contie, seriously, when was  being less than smart ever a big negative for R candidates in 38?  I’m pretty sure some pretty dum candidates have carried 38.

    3. Was he vicious enough with his Republican opponent.  Did he call her extremist and say why?  From everything you say, there must have been a problem somewhere.  Was it the Democrats simply believing their own call that his opponent was such an idiot that there was no need to point it out?  Are you too close to him?  As you know, many of the same things were said about Bernie Buscher and it is now clear that he hasn’t learned a thing, having lost twice in a row.  You’ve got to hang these people with their own words.  You have to be mean.  If you aren’t, then you don’t win.  I was involved with the Nicholson/Tim Lennard race a bit.  You have to be mean.  I was mean.  It worked.  Got the Boulder liberals worked up and pealed off some Republicans in Jeffco.  I did the Don Bain add for Hick in this district, but I did it as a robo-call to Republicans only.  I called his an extermist, an idealogue who didn’t care about individual people, a pariah.  And, he is all those things.  I helped some Republicans remember what the Republican Party used to stand for and how unlike that this party today is.  This is part of the reason that Nicholson won.  Nice guys finish last.  Sadly, most Democrats still can’t seem to figure that out.  They still think that if they just talk people about ideas which are popular, they will win.  There’s a couple of reasons I’m not a Democrat.  One of the big ones is that they are too namby-pamby to win elections on a consistent basis against people who are so far out of the mainstream it’s sickening.  Politics is only about one thing.  It’s about winning.  There is nothing else.  Until Democrats learn that, they will keep getting swept away by people who have the support of only 15% of the American people.  Quit talking about how bad elections have gotten.  About how wrong corporate money is for elections.  About how you’re going to be above the fray like that idiot soon-to-be ex-Senator from Wisconsin.  These things mean nothing to the public.  NOTHING!!!!  If you’re as bad at blocking and tackling as the Denver Broncos, your going to get your butt whipped by the Oakland Raiders.  It’s that simple.  The Republicans have learned that being centerist only muddies the waters.   It’s time to stand up for what you believe and what you don’t believe and say so loudly and clearly and not use mushy language.  You need to be straight and direct.  You need to get down in the gutter.  You need to quit taking the BS from the Republicans.  You need to call it BS or hooey or what every you can bring yourselves to do.  Otherwise you condemn your selves to an eternity of getting a majority only when the Republicans have so screwed up that the voters have no choice to elect you.   Imagine, the Republicans spend eight years screwing up the economy, killing thousands of our soldiers in a war that left us no better off than we were before and generally creating misery all around.  And you guys can’t do anything but apologize for not having done well enough.  What ever happened to waiving the bloody shirt.  The founding fathers believed in that.  Take a clue from the Republicans.  Get away from your psycho-babble safe house and get with the program.  Play hard, win elections, do good.  Call the Republicans what they are, extremists, idealogues who don’t care about people, pariahs, and what about for good measure, wife batters, drunks, law breakers,stupid, criminals.  You know, they put Hick and Ritter behind bars on TV.  You know, there is nothing, nothing politically that I share with Bill Ritter (being a pro-choice, poro-gay marriage conservative).  But I will tell you what, as a man and a person, there is no one I would rather be associated with than Bill Ritter.  He has character, he has morality, he’s got it.  So for someone to put him in jail clothes and behind bars, well, learn your lesson guys.  I give this same speach every year after the election and you guys never learn.  Give me some Democrats who are willing to fight and fight dirty and smart and I’ll help them.  The rest of you, well you can be like David Obermeyer and Russ Feingold who think you are above the fray.  Good riddance.

      4. I get tired of hearing this same BS after ever election.  Sorry but I don’t buy the “we have to fight dirty like them” message.  Republicans keep their enemies list but I’m not sure Democrats need them.  Sure they are snakes who can’t be trusted but I don’t have to think of them as “the enemy”.  I’m glad Obama extended the hand of friendship to them.  Someone has to act like the grown up.  Democrats will get another shot and they will help move human progress forward and implement good policies when they do.  Until then, the fighters can go fight but I would rather work on better GOTV networks for 2012.

  9. Galiardi’s HD27

    Rice HD38

    Bernie losing SoS

    and especially

    Bush-Stapleton taking Treasurer

    I don’t know what the voters were thinking, but with the voting machines back into Republican hands and the state’s money into Republican hands I do not think Colorado will fare well for  the next four years.  

  11. Wow.

    Articulate, smart. Kept Colorado’s investments during The Second Great Republican Depression from imploding.

    Races and outcomes like this are big reasons I’m so cynical about the average voter.  

    1. I always believed she was making significant efforts to get the word out about what the Treasurer’s office does, and how she was carefully managing the state’s money so that it didn’t disappear into the wrong pockets during the financial collapse.  

      If someone knows what went wrong on this race, we could all learn from it.  Really a loss for this state.

    1. I guess these guys pushing “personhood” in CO fit the definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

    3. Douglas Bruce lost a number of initiatives before he saddled us with Amendment 1.  Their view is that if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.  These people will never give up, and never must we.  The reality is that only 20% of voters believe that abortion should never be allowed, even in the cases of rape and incest.  Yet, they got 30% of the vote.  That means that they have already convinced 10% of voters who disagree with them to vote for this idiodic POS.  There’s only 21% more to go.  These guys are in it for the long run, something most Democrats aren’t.

  14. As the election season wore on, one of Colorado’s most outspoken Republicans was increasingly silent. Arguably, he might have been the party’s strongest candidate for governor, yet he was pushed to the sidelines early through a weird combination of events.

    For the record, I’m not a Penry fan, but I found it odd that he just faded away completely after he left the governor’s race and guided Jane Norton’s campaign to a loss.

    In retrospect, had he stayed in the governor’s race and become the nominee, he certainly would have run stronger than Maes and probably would have made Hickenlooper work to win the gov’s race.

    1. we’d very likely be talking about Governor-elect Penry.

      But you do have a good point; where the hell did he go?  Staying away from the disasters (both races he was at all involved in were)?  Being bitter and now laughing?  Maybe he was doing something and we just missed it.

      If the GOP’s smart, they’ll put him in a high visibility position.  Even Dick’s would do.  But they aren’t.  It’s incredibly possible that we’ve seen the last of Penry as a “rising star.”

        1. He had terms left when he was in the state House but ran for the Senate, ignoring advice otherwise and energizing the Mesa County crazies to win the GOP primary over Matt Smith. For those who have forgotten, Matt is Scott McInnis’s brother-in-law.

          From there, the sky was the limit for golden boy Josh. As a one-term state senator he had to go for the top state job. His ego was limitless.

          He left the race, with no deal in hand no matter what anybody says.

          Now he’s jobless. Should the GOP fire Wadhams, he might have a shot. Democrats can only hope.

      3. that we’d have “Governor Elect Penry” if he ran. Hickenlooper is very popular and well known. Tancredo, I’d bet, has much better name recognition. I’ve never heard of Josh Penry outside of this site and the occasional news blurb.

        That said, there’s no doubt he would have been a strong candidate, but I don’t see how anyone, wave year or not, beats Hick.

        1. But I do stand by my “very likely” claim.  Hick only ended up with 51%.  The SoS and AG races were the “wave.”  Which sort of implies that every race could have gone conservative with 14% (holy crap did Buck and Tanc blow it!).  Penry isn’t well known, but he is general public sane, that’s worth a point or so of that wave.

          I guess what I’m getting at is, imo, Tancredo lost because he’s well known, not in spite of it.  A saner competitor may have ultimately brought back the same result (a Hick win), but we wouldn’t have known so early and there would’ve been a bigger commercial presence.  Here’s where we get into too much make believe for a moot point.  It’s hard to start adding and taking away points for a type of campaign that wasn’t needed.

          So we’ll never know.  I can live with that.

      4. Too many conservatives saved those attack-emails of the Norton Campaign.   You know: the ones HE WROTE.  

        No.  Penry is looking for paying work as a political consultant. I wouldn’t be surprised if David Kinney is even considering hiring him.  

    2. He’s just flying under the radar.

      There are people in this world who are always around for the credit and never around for the blame.  Josh is one of those people.  He has no fingerprints on anything that happened since Primary.

      He’ll be back to reclaim his rightful place as rising star.  At least until he actually has to do something.

    3. is that there was never a deal behind his getting out of the race.  Rather, some undisclosed personal issue was brought to light in probably our only good vetting job of the year.

      Because it’s only an unconfirmed rumor, I won’t discuss the details.  Needless to say, if what we hear is accurate, that info going public would have sunk him and he pulled back from the candidacy to save face.  

      No, I can’t prove what I’ve said because I’m relaying the talk that goes around Rep circles that I’m in.  Again, if what the rumor mill in our side says is true, you won’t be seeing Penry running for office again anytime soon.

          1. … you’re skating close to the edge, but I believe you have to actually say what the rumor is, not just say you heard something. However, I’ve already learned that my idea of what’s acceptable is looser than Pols’s, so discretion is advisable.

  15. I stayed up all night to find out the results of the U.S. Senate race, just sure that Buck would pull it off. After I slept for a few hours, I got the good news that a major paper was calling the race for Bennet. To me, that was a surprise — but in a good way.

    Lots of other things about the results surprised me, too, but that was the one thing affecting me that I didn’t know for sure before I gave up and went to sleep about 4:30 a.m.

    1. I wanted him to win so much, but I just knew that Hick’s “backward”  đź™‚  Coloradans wouldn’t do the right thing. And, frankly, I’d rather have had Tanc as Governor than Buck as Senator. That’s how much a disaster I though Buck was.

  17. It’s surprising and rather humorous to see how the Dems are unable to spit out the word “Minority” in describing their new reality and loss of SIX House seats. They comfort each other by calling themselves the “House Democratic Caucus” – which is really very amusing.  

    1. We’re in the minority in the House. There, I said it. Didn’t gag me. Just because we don’t outweigh you guys doesn’t mean we’re not going to outsmart you. Can you spit out “minority in the Senate”? You simple fathead. (Feel honored, CBS, you’re the recipient of my first post election namecalling!)

    2. You’re not describing me. I can dig my heals in so deep they speak Chinese, CBS.

      If you can’t respect the minority, and work with them as a reasonable person of good will….to quote SH…..then you absolutely should stay on the sidelines.

      You’re easily amused.

      1. This is exactly what you’d expect from a gang of hooligans like this.  Well, let’s turn the knife.  We’ve still got a Democratic Senate and a Democratic Governor.  Let’s see you gag on that one.  Remember, there is still one moderate Republican left in the House.  That makes for a lot of fun on the floor of the house.  Remember there is such a thing as striking the entire language that came from committee and substituting new language.  Please, try your BS radical stuff.  I encourage you.  It makes taking back the house that much easier.  Dems, refuse to take my advice at your peril.  I’m right, and I have been right for 20 years.  I know, why should we take advice from an ex-Republican Chair of Jeffco.  Well, I ain’t a Republican any more.  I fought this stuff inside the old Republican Party until I lost.  I won more than I lost, but in the end, I was pissing in the wind.  That’s what you are doing and you should gag on that.

  18. Everything about the beginning of the legislative session and how things were moving made me thing that Penry would be the Republican nom for Governor. I was very surprised when he put aside his bid and endorsed McInnis, which we all now know was the biggest help the Hickenlooper campaign could have dreamed of.

  19. We’ve been friends for thirty years and he is a character but when he told me he voted for Tancredo because he didn’t want Hickenlooper to get overconfident, I had to slap my forehead and swear.

  20. Wasn’t there a wholesale resignation a few weeks back?

    I mean I never heard a word, so I presume that they had all gone to the seashore.

    Anybody seen Patti Waak?  Do we need a welfare check in?

  21. The naming of BJ Nikkel as House Majority Whip, assuming the Republicans hold the majority, some races, I think, are still being counted.  But Ms. Nikkel is hardly the fiscal conservative the Republicans think she is.  After all, she did file that $10 million dollar lawsuit against the Larimer County Sheriff’s office with the expectation that her son’s arrest charges (attempted murder) would be reduced.  This is a serious breach of the public trust that of which voters should have taken notice. The Queen of Transparency apparently doesn’t want this bit of her history to be discussed.  So much for her transparency in matters where taxpayer dollars are concerned.

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