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May 16, 2007 07:08 PM UTC

Shaffer Tops Musgrave in Early Poll

  • 66 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols


According to Colorado Confidential:

Results from a polling memo exclusively obtained by Colorado Confidential show that Shaffer is already in a good position to knock off Musgrave in 2008…

…In an initial head-to-head match-up, Shaffer [is the only Democrat tested who] defeats Musgrave, 43% to 37%.

In a balanced, informed head-to-head match up, Shaffer [is the only Democrat tested who] defeats Musgrave, 51% to 40%.

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66 thoughts on “Shaffer Tops Musgrave in Early Poll”

    1. Great numbers, sure, but since it is a primary election, they were total idiots if they didn’t see if Brandon could beat Angie head to head. I bet they are not total idiots. So where are those numbers?

      Hello?

      [crickets]

  2. Shaffer hasn’t even gotten his name out.  If he’s going to do that well against Musgrave, that would be outstanding, but I doubt he has much name recognition in CD-4, so it seems strange that he would poll so high, unless people are just voting against Musgrave. 

    I support Angie and think the Dems should stick with her, but I’d consider Shaffer if I really felt like he was the best option for taking the seat.  However, at the current time with his low name recognition I don’t see how he can claim such numbers.

    1. First, one questions whether this is the result prior to the positives and negatives of each candidate being read.  Too often, candidates tout poll numbers after that, which really isn’t valid.

      Second, assuming it is a real result, I think it is safe to assume that the Shaffer name is an awful lot like a very popular B. Schaffer who has an amazingly large name recognition in the 4th CD.

        1. Bob is not running against Brandon. That would be a waist of money, time, and would only confuse voters into thinking Bob was challenging Marilyn to a primary. Sounds about as dumb as intentionally slamming your finger with a car door.

          1. It’s a methodology issue. The results of this poll are unreliable if we don’t know for sure that the voters actually know that Brandon Shaffer is not Bob Schaffer. If I was considering running for office, that’s a pretty basic data point I would want to know.

  3. If Brandon and Angie get into a primary it’s over.  The money wont last enough to battle MM after the mud toss and fight for the Dem Voters.

    1. I generally like primaries.  They get the eventual candidate’s name out there and cause his/her campaign to sharpen up its message and deal with any negatives.

      Money will not be a problem.  Whoever wins the primary will be able to raise money.

      1. People were saying the same “primaries destroy candidates” thing during the Perlmutter/Lamm primary. In the end, I’d say Perlmutter was stronger for having survivied that bout.

    1. You can start a new group in Greely. “Conspiracy theorist for Marilyn!” Im sure you would cater to a crowd of two. You and Marilyn.

  5. to me,too. You wouldn’t think he’d have that much name recognition.  Could people be mixing him up with Republican
    Schaffer?  If not, could this be reflecting an “anybody but Musgrave” feeling, meaning Dems can win with any decent candidate? if it is a genuine reflection of preference for Shaffer then Dems ought to vet him better than they vetted Angie and go with him!  As unfair as Musgrave’s attacks were, including out and out lies, Angie’s past financial problems were not all just created out of thin air by the Musgrave camp and were,let’s face it, a real problem.  If she runs again she will have to do a better job of explaining all that. 

    1. You are right about the baggage. I think “explanation” isn’t the issue, but “portrayal” and inoculating herself. At any rate, now Paccione has the advantage of this stuff being old news. In 2006 people were hearing about it for the first time. I’m actually surprised it didn’t hurt her more, which makes me think it wasn’t the silver bullet Musgrave thought it would be.

  6. Why don’t they give any numbers on the other Dems?

    Realistically, Brandon’s name recognition has to be very low, so either Anybody But Musgrave wins this, or else voters are confusing the Shaffer with Schaffer. Remember, Bob Schaffer was on the ballot last November, because he ran as CD-4 rep to the State Board of Education!

    This doesn’t seem realistic. It would have been more credible otherwise.

    1. I forgot about this:

      Remember, Bob Schaffer was on the ballot last November, because he ran as CD-4 rep to the State Board of Education!

      I just looked at the 2006 numbers. In CD-4:

      Musgrave: 109732
      Schaffer: 132175
      Difference: 22443

      Considering how far down the ballot the State Bd. of Ed. is, that’s on hell of a drop off!

      1.   Compared to Musty, he was a hell of a good U.S. Rep and his winning margins running in C.D. 4 bear that out. 
          He was as far to the right as she is but he did his constituent service work and he had positions (wrong positions, but positions just the same) on issues other than just same sex marriage. 
          And he kept his word on term limits. A politician keeping his word is pretty unique.
          That’s why he ran so far ahead of Musty last year in C.D. 4 even though he was far down the ballot.

          1. when Pol bloggers diss on it, especially considering the “alleged” bad news for Musgrave. 

            What is the Dead Guv’s opinion of this “story”?

  7. Who is going to run Angie’s campaign?

    The same team as in 2006 or is she bringing in new people?

    Who is going to run Brandon’s campaign? Jason Sorter? Jim Merlino? I have heard them both rumored.

    Instead of thumping their chests Angie and Brandon should be out raising the Mother’s milk of politics; money. That will decide who is the strongest candidate.

    1. You are right: money money money!

      So far as Shaffer is concerned it looks like a DC consultant is calling the shots once they found out Paccione filed papers and forced their hand. If Shaffer is turning to Merlino, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paccione hire a firm like Welchert & Britz. But it will definitely be a new team for her, since she’s been telling everyone she wants something new.

      Either way, Brandon has guaranteed a primary, since Paccione planted her flag first. I’m still flabbergasted he thinks he thinks insulting her supporters is the best way to get her out of the race. Very amateurish.

  8. Nice try, but there’s something missing: Can Brandon Schaffer beat Angie Paccione in a primary!!!! Just a TINY little omission there!

    After a bloody little primary, Marilyn Musgrave will DESTROY Angry Angie by a huge margin.

    Even if you disagree with them, Marilyn Musgrave is widely respected for her never wavering from her strong moral principles. Such strength will be rewarded!!!

  9. Completely bogus.  We can’t even see the questions they asked?

    It’s a stack of lies then.

    There’s absolutely no way CD4 voters would prefer *any* Democrat by 11 points if the question weren’t phrased in a misleading way.  If the raw numbers support the assertion, you get your DC polling firm to release the raw numbers too.  They didn’t; it’s bullshit.

    1. 4.9% MOE on 400 polled voters means the 43-37 head-to-head matchup could also be 38-42 the other way, Musgrave defeating Shaffer by a healthy 4 points.  Even with Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal…err, Normington asking misleading questions.

      (Why does the PDF document title refer to a different polling firm name than the actual document?)

    2. and that’s why they call it a MEMO!

      It’s a leaked MEMO, not internal polling results. The numbers and effect are still the same. Angies negatives are too great to overcome. She had her perfect storm opportunity in ’06 and couldn’t win against one of the WORST republicans in the US House. It’s time for a change, in candidates, and politics.

      1. Sorry, it’s all bullshit unless I know how the poll was conducted, and if were a straight-up poll we’d be told what questions were asked.  You can capitalize “memo” all you want, but it won’t make me gullible.

        Brandon paid for a DC poll and this is their best spin on the results they got.  End of story.

        1. It’s a PR memo released strategically: to try and clear the field. That’s why they didn’t release any of the Democratic head-to-head.

          Folks, Paccione ain’t getting off the field. Get used to it.

        2. Don’t be so sheepish into following the “push-polling from DC,” idea because your candidate couldn’t win during a landslide year.

          I liked Angies and wish she would have won, but it’s time to admit she lost and put aside personal emotions towards Angie. It’s time for Marilyn to pack her office up and head home. She’s down enough damage in Congress.

          1. I never said it was a “push-poll,” but with them hiding the details, that’s a safe assumption.  The reason people hide things is because there’s something to hide.

            I like Angie Paccione and think she’s our strongest candidate.  I also like Brandon Shaffer as I’ve pointed out before.  We’ve talked several times, and I have knocked on doors with him in Longmont in support of the Congressional seat for which he now intends to run.  The harshest criticism of Brandon Shaffer the candidate you’ll find from me here is that he’s kinda boring.

            What I see now is Brandon starting a negative primary campaign.  He’s got a consultant who’s telling him that going negative is his best approach, probably the same one who bought and hyped this mystery poll.  Brandon’s inexperienced and is making a mistake.  And as others have pointed out, we probably can’t afford a rancorous primary given how the numbers went last time, so I fear that Shaffer’s “elbows-out” approach hurts all of us.

            I’ve been working CD4 for Democrats since 2000.  I’m comfy with losing at this point.  Angie was a far better candidate than Stan Matsunaka, and she’s a better candidate than Brandon Shaffer.  But I just want one of them to win.  If that’s Shaffer, then fine, but it doesn’t mean I believe anything about this poll, or have forgotten his pompous and divisive campaign announcement.

            1. And for one to claim his harshest criticism is “boring,” how can a boring, inexperienced, pompous and divisive Shaffer elbow-out another Democrat?

              I think you are kidding yourself.

              1. And I’m guessing you’re not a parent: criticism of actions is not the same as criticism of a person.  You moved the adjectives.

                Do you really need to ask “how?”  Because the media loves it.  Any element of rancor is gladly magnified by the press, especially in an election cycle that looks to be a monotonous landslide for Democrats in general.  Brandon’s consultant knows that, and is using it, but there’s simply not enough money out there to have an expensive primary and still have enough in the bank to beat the Musgrave money machine.

            2. I like both candidates, too, and as I mentioned above I generally like primaries.  I don’t want either one to clear the field for the other at this point.

              Why do you say Brandon is going negative?  What did I miss?

      2. Although I think the negatives are still a problem, I think the Democratic “Eat Our Own” habit may be misplaced here. Musgrave is apparently badly wounded, thanks to 2006. Like Melissa Bean or Jerry McNerney, Paccione is now in a position to raise enough the money she needs to be genuinely competitive with Musgrave on TV.

  10. Instead of talking about a poll Brandon should be talking about who is going to run his campaign and how much money he can raise?

    Instead of saying she has earned it Angie needs to be out raising money to prove that she has earned it.

    Rumors abound but who is actually going to run Brandon and Angie’s campaigns? Or, did Brandon make a rookie mistake and start to run without having a team in place?

    1. but is isn’t determinative in a primary.  Both need to show they can raise money, but appealing to primary voters is just as important.

  11. Musgrave will have $1 million banked and a treasure trove of photos with the likes of Salazar and Udall to burnish her non-partisan credentials.

    Brandon Shaffer will have no real money and a bunch of quotes from his ultra-liberal performance on the Senate floor. The Colorado Senate News ran by the Republican caucus has stuff that will destroy Brandon Shaffer in this district.

    Brandon Shaffer was so busy patting himself on the back that he forgot to talk to Angie or assemble a staff.

    Not only will Musgrave whoop Shaffer or Angie but his departure gives the Republicans a great chance to pick up another State Senate seat.

    1. Even if you are dead set on running, how can you not even follow the basic courtesies? Entering the race with both left feet was a very bad sign.

  12. It really doesn’t matter if the poll is accurate or not because that’s not the point. The point of this “leaked” memo is to give Shaffer some hype right after he announced. The dems want to beat Musgrave, so the “poll” gave them what they wanted. Is it accurate? At this early stage, probably not. Is the methodology skewed? You bet your ass. But the goal was to get people talking about Shaffer, and based on this thread I’d say it worked. The only big picture implication this has is that it’s Shaffer’s first move. If we judge his potential based on the strategy of this move, I’d say he is a pretty promising candidate because this “poll” was a smart move.

    1. no one’s really talking nice about Shaffer. I don’t personally ascribe to the theory that any publicity is good publicity. Maybe it’s a good way to make a splash, but it’s not a good way to make friends.

      1. Totally agree. Its not that they arent talking nice about Shaffer per se, but they certainly arent lining up to donate. I dont ascribe to all publicity being positive either, and really, to me, all this “memo” has shown is that people in CD-4 are still nostalgic for Schaffer,  not Shaffer.

        And really this isnt much of a splash. Its early, too early in my opinion, to be trying to make a splash. When I say early I mean that he has one term in the senate, few bills to his name, and he is just new enough to earn the name “carpet bagger” whether it is deserved or not, not to mention that is still very early in the campaign season.

  13. showing up on a conservative blog, favoring a conservative candidate in a liberal district, getting no sharp commentary from our hosts.  But maybe it’s just me….

  14. After weeding through multiple comments about this poll, the general consensus is that Brandon should have gone about his initial strategy differently.  I completely disagree.  Some posters think that Shaffer stepped on some toes.  You’re damn right he did!  This is a RACE.  There are NO points for second place and Angie Paccione did in fact finish SECOND the last time around with MILLIONS of dollars worth of resources and HUNDREDS of volunteers at her disposal (and plenty of people working and donating on her behalf behind-the scenes).  She is not, by any means, entitled to this seat.  She had her shot, she fumbled and now it’s time to move on.  It appears that the folks in Washington agree and the Angie camp can’t accept the realities here. 

    Conventional wisdom would have told you that she was never the ideal Democratic candidate for this particular seat anyways.  She got close in a banner year for Democrats but was still unable to pull it off.  That, in itself, should speak volumes to all the so-called pundits on the blog.  It’s time to move onward and forward.  No candidate in this race expects a free ride but I’m getting the sense that all the Angie supporters expect other democratic hopefuls to ask her permission before they decide to run.  This will never happen.  Sorry Angie but you’re done, whether or not you choose to accept it.  Time to move on.

    1. It IS a race! And right out of the gate Brandon is making rookie mistakes (for instance, party voters pay attention to the basic courtesies). Leaking this “poll” to try and cover for them just makes it worse.

      The idea is to avoid a primary, people! And poking a competitor Angie with a stick is about the dumbest thing you can do right out of the gate, cause you’re messing with the huge base she’s built.

      But maybe if you keep telling all these local Democrats that the DC consultants know better, that’ll sew it up for Brandon.

      1. No matter what you say, it’s going to get twisted and misconstrued. If there were basic courtesy here, Angie would realize that she’s done and step aside. If she built a proper base, she would be in Congress right now.  Her base is fatigued and dwindling and I guarantee she’ll get less votes this time around running against a “new” Musgrave.  The Angie fans can screech about this all they want.  It doesn’t change the fact that she lost and will probably lose by wider margins in 2008 with less money and fewer volunteers.

          1. I’m using this as a what if scenario.  If Angie, by some slim chance, wins a primary then Democrats lose in CD-4 yet again.  There were people who wouldn’t vote for Angie the last time that were anti-Musgrave and they ended up supporting Eric Eidsness because they had no other viable alternative.  The votes that Eidsness drew away from Angie cost her the race.  There is no way Angie can beat Musgrave this time around.  She would lose by a wider margin than last time. Brandon is the Democrats best chance in a general election at this point.  It’s too bad the die hard Angie fans can’t see that.

    1. Look at the counties included in CD 4: Las Animas, Otero, Baca, Bent, in other words, many from Southeast Colorado who are adamently opposed to the proposed expansion of Pinon Canyon. The opposition is bi-partisan. Musgrave has been the most vocal and active against the expansion. She has been present and listens.
      This is the “new Musgrave”. The Dems are going to have to work hard on this issue to get support in these counties to defeat her. Angie is aware of this. Is Shaffer?

       

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