January 09, 2006 09:00 AM UTC

Rocky Highlights GOP Targets in 2006

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• by: Colorado Pols

The Rocky Mountain News has a good story today on the seats that Republicans are targeting in 2006 in an effort to win back the state legislature:

How’s this for fuzzy math: Democrats have a five-seat edge in the state House of Representatives and only a one-seat majority in the Senate, but Republicans think it will be easier to take back the House.

Democrats, however, aren’t ready to concede quite yet. They now hold a 35-30 edge in the House and an 18-17 majority in the Senate after scoring stunning upsets in the 2004 election and gaining control of both chambers for the first time since 1962. Control of the Senate has seesawed since 2000, but few dreamed the House would turn Democrat.

With Rep. Mark Larson pulling out of the race for SD-6, the Republican odds of winning back the state senate aren’t good, so Republicans are probably smarter to pay more attention to the state house. Some of their targets, however, are far from good bets. Reps. Debbie Benefield, Bernie Buescher and Michael Merrifield will be tough outs for a variety of reasons. The GOP still needs a good candidate to oppose Benefield, Merrifield hasn’t been beaten in two attempts, and Buescher should be relatively popular in his district after a high-profile year in 2005.

Of the other targets, Reps. Buffie McFadyen and Wes McKinley are probably toss-ups, while Republicans could have a good shot at beating Reps. Morgan Carroll and Gwyn Green. Carroll will likely be the number one target of the GOP in 2006, while Green won a narrow victory in 2004 helped in part by Republicans who sabotaged Ramey Johnson’s campaign over her anti-voucher stance. Johnson is running again (2006 would mark the fourth or fifth time that Johnson has run for that seat), but there are rumors that another GOP candidate will emerge.

As for the Democrats, they are fortunate to only have four term-limited seats…

Democrats also are eyeing open seats, including those of Rep. Mark Larson, of Cortez, and Rep. Joe Stengel, of Littleton. Both Republicans are term-limited.

In addition, Romanoff said, only four Democrats are term-limited – Tom Plant, of Nederland, Val Vigil, of Thornton, Ann Ragsdale, of Westminster, and Fran Coleman, of Denver. Three of those seats are considered safe, while Coleman’s, in southwestern Denver, is more competitive, he said.

Coleman’s seat in HD-1 may be slightly more competitive but is still a good bet to stay Democratic, with Denver Deputy District Attorney Alfredo Hernandez the early favorite to keep it Democratic.