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March 24, 2011 07:16 PM UTC

Colorado Pols/RBI Poll: Romer 22%, Mejia 10%, Hancock 9%

  • 17 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

This is a poll of the Denver mayoral race, released by Colorado Pols and conducted by Denver-based RBI Strategies & Research. A summary from RBI research director Kevin Ingham:

RBI mayoral survey shows low voter engagement with just 3 weeks before voting begins

A survey of likely 2011 municipal voters in Denver shows that while Chris Romer is currently leading, a plurality of voters remain undecided and have yet to significantly engage on the race.  When asked who they would vote for in the race for Mayor of Denver, 22% of respondents said they would vote for Chris Romer and 10% said James Mejia with Michael Hancock (9%), Doug Linkhart (7%), Carol Boigon (5%) and Theresa Spahn (2%) all receiving support in the single digits.  Another 5% said they would vote for a different candidate and a 40% plurality say they remain undecided on which candidate they will support.

This survey is a useful snapshot of the status of the race at a time before voters have began to engage.  Though Chris Romer is clearly leading, much of this can be attributed to his name ID advantage and the race remains wide open.  Early horserace surveys, such as this one, tend to show that support is highly correlated to name ID.  Therefore, with such a large portion of the likely electorate unfamiliar with the candidates, the high number of undecided voters is not surprising.  In fact, fully 32% were unable to provide hard name ID for any of the six candidates presented during the survey interview.

As the major mayoral candidate begin to communicate with voters, the race will be sure to become more engaged and is likely to become highly fluid over the next few weeks.

RBI Strategies & Research conducted a telephone survey of 400 Denver voters who indicated it was likely that they would vote in the May 2011 Municipal Election. Interviews were conducted March 21 – March 22, 2010 by Standage Market Research of Denver, Colorado, a market research firm specializing in telephone survey interviewing. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Colorado voters, purchased from Voter Contact Services, who registered after the 2010 General Election or voted in the 2010 General Election and either 1) voted in at least one off-year election dating back to 2003 or 2) registered after 2009 off-year election.

The margin of error for a survey of 400 interviews is ±4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error is higher for subsamples within the full sample.

Other sources of error not accounted for by the stated statistical margin of error include, but are not limited to, question wording, question order, and refusal to be interviewed.

Toplines | Crosstabs

NOTE: RBI Strategies is not involved with any Denver mayoral campaigns.

Mr. Ingham will join Colorado Pols readers at 1PM today for a Q&A session.

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17 thoughts on “Colorado Pols/RBI Poll: Romer 22%, Mejia 10%, Hancock 9%”

    1. I’m hearing that several of the candidates had their names mispronounced pretty badly by the interviewers. That might explain why Boigon didn’t do better.

      1. I can see ignorant anglos calling Mejia Me-gee-a, but how do you mispronounce the others? And its a local company, surely they could hire interviewers who know how to read and pronounce latino names!

        (Says the guys who is so English, it’s a wonder I wasn’t born with a Union Jack as a birthmark!)

        1. Apparently, from comments made by a Boigen staffer, they pronounced Mejia as Me-gee-A and Boigen as Bo-ih-gan when Boigen herself got polled.

  2. Look, DenverPols.  I am not really supporting any candidate yet, but do you really expect us to believe you’re not biased when you write about some random women endorsing Romer — but fail to report when Francis Owens and Jeannie Ritter endorse Hancock?  Or you fail to report that Webb endorsed Hancock?  Or that your mayoral line has Boigon ahead of Mejia even though he polled second and has Pena’s endorsement?  

    It would be easier to read and participate in this blog if you came clean about your support for Romer and Boigon.  Then we could have an honest discussion.  

    1. We’ve been critical of Boigon and Romer in the diaries you reference above. It would be easier to read this blog if you were to actually read what we wrote.

  3. Sorry, I can’t read. Thanks for pointing it out to everyone!!!

    But seriously, being “critical” doesn’t mean you don’t support a candidate.  What you decide to write about and when you decide to write about it speaks volumes.

    1. We try our best to stay on top of all the news affecting these races. If we were to post every endorsement out there, there’d be a new story on the front page every five seconds.

      Now that we’re getting closer to election day, we’re going to start posting every endorsement we see and that kind of thing. Our protocol recently was just posting what we thought would have an impact on the race or what we thought was novel or needed analysis.

      By the way, you’re always able to write a diary that can make it to the front page. If you write a diary talking about an endorsement or an issue pertaining to the race, if it’s well written and if it’s something we didn’t cover, we’re always happy to promote it.

      1. Now that we’re getting closer to election day, we’re going to start posting every endorsement we see and that kind of thing. Our protocol recently was just posting what we thought would have an impact on the race or what we thought was novel or needed analysis.

        The Pena endorsement was right up on the front page after it happened. But Webb endorsing Hancock won’t have an impact, and doesn’t need mentioning? Nothing about Gail Schoettler for Boigon either. I think that one got some mention on COpols but it should have been on here too.

        This isn’t a claim of bias, but you guys are kinda dropping the ball a bit here missing some of these big endorsements. I mean, it’s not like these things were stealthily hidden from everyone.

         

          1. But you said you were going to post every endorsement? So, Gail Schoettler is a big enough deal but not former Mayor Wellington Webb? I think it’s pretty clear who you’re NOT supporting.

            1. We’re on every campaign’s press list. A great way to make us read your press releases is to make sure we get your e-mails. We didn’t get anything from Hancock.  

              1. I find this hard to believe, especially when you have Mejia’s video up on the front page for several days while the rest of the town is discussing Hancock’s new ad.  

  4. Thanks for responding. I did not realize that was an option.

    I wonder when Hancock will put out a commercial?  I thought he bought all that media?

  5. but, this mayor’s race is BORING.

    Why has not someone reported on “candidate X was seen fondling a little boy/girl”?

    Why hasn’t someone reported on “candidate X spent OVER $100/night on a hotel room whilst on a trip to country Y”?

    1. just wait — I’m sure the rumors will start somewhere.  Ok…so I heard that Jeff Peckman believes we aliens visit Denver.  Wait…that’s not just a rumor?

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