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December 21, 2007 10:57 AM UTC

If Mitt Romney wins Iowa, he is almost UNSTOPPABLE !

  • 14 Comments
  • by: NEWSMAN

While we were out Christmas shopping and enjoying our Rocky Mountain Winter Wonderland, the presidential contest has narrowed to a 3 way race – before the first vote has been cast.

Colorado, like several other states, moved up their primaries to get a piece of the presidential sweepstakes pie.

But so far, except for moving the timetable earlier, it looks like business as usual in the race for the white house with New Hampshire and Iowa playing their traditional role of setting the tone for the Presidential campaign.

Is it down to Mitt and Mike?

Not since 1952 has the nation entered a presidential year with greater seeming uncertainty as to who will face off in November.

And though the 2008  race may seem wide open, it is already probably down to three candidates, could be over by Jan. 4 and will probably be down to two by Jan. 9, the morning after New Hampshire.

The front-runner since spring, Rudy Giuliani, is close to toast.

By dropping out of the Iowa Straw Poll in August, Rudy ceded Iowa and the cornucopia of publicity the winner receives. He is running far behind in Iowa, sinking in New Hampshire and certain to be skunked twice by Jan. 9. If so, he will lose Michigan, then South Carolina, where he is already far behind, and Florida, his firewall, where he is now slipping behind both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

If Rudy is 0-4 going into Florida, he loses Florida. If he is 0-5 going into the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday states, his national lead will be ancient history. In some national polls, it has already vanished. The same holds for Fred Thompson. Though Iowans were eagerly awaiting his appearance at the straw poll, Fred, too, took a pass. And though he seems ideally suited to the party, he is running so far behind in New Hampshire and Michigan it is hard to see how he survives to reach home base, . There, he is already behind Romney and Huckabee. In New Hampshire, Fred is behind Ron Paul. Wisely, he is headed for Iowa to put all his chips on a strong showing, hoping Romney and Huckabee will do to each other what Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean  did: rip each other out of contention. If Fred does not make a strong showing in Iowa, a prediction: He will drop out and endorse John McCain, who has a shot at repeating his 2000 win in New Hampshire. For McCain has the endorsement of the  Union-Leader and Boston Globe, and Rudy is pulling out of the Granite State, ceding the moderates to McCain, hoping he will stop Romney there and keep his own fading hopes alive.

If Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire, drop the curtain for Rudy, Thompson and McCain – and they know it.

For if Mitt wins in New Hampshire, none of the three beats him in Michigan, they will not beat him in South Carolina, and they will not beat him in Florida.

Can McCain, who kicked away what seemed a near-certain nomination by embracing the Bush-Kennedy amnesty and stiffing the Iowa Straw Poll, win? Not impossible. If he can win New Hampshire and make himself the national alternative to Huckabee, a desperate GOP establishment might rally to him for lack of an alternative.

But McCain’s fate is not entirely in his own hands. He needs an assist. He needs Huckabee to defeat Romney in Iowa, where McCain will be waxed, then to come back and beat Romney himself in New Hampshire. Two losses by Romney in states where he has invested millions would put his campaign on life support.

But if Romney wins Iowa, he will win New Hampshire and Michigan, and go into South Carolina 3-0. If Romney wins the first two, he is almost surely the nominee. For that would eliminate Rudy, McCain and Thompson, leaving the only man able to stop him in South Carolina, a twice-defeated Mike Huckabee and his Christian prayer warriors.

So, two weeks out from Iowa, here are the odds.

Rudy and Thompson each 20-1. John McCain 6-1. He has to win New Hampshire, and even if he wins there, he would be an underdog. Grass-roots conservatives do not like him and would prefer Huckabee.

Mitt Romney 3-2. If he wins Iowa, he is almost unstoppable. If he loses Iowa, he has to come back and beat McCain in New Hampshire. Then it would a Mitt-Mike race through Feb. 5.

And Huckabee? He has to win Iowa. If he does, he will be the favorite in South Carolina and for the nomination, as well.

Looks like a Mitt-Mike race, with Iowa and New Hampshire giving us by Jan. 9 the two candidates from whom the nominee will be chosen. And isn’t that how it usually is? Iowa and New Hampshire choose for America.

– Pat Buchanan

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/s…

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14 thoughts on “If Mitt Romney wins Iowa, he is almost UNSTOPPABLE !”

  1. The media loves a horse race so if 2 or 3 are within a couple of percentage points, the press will call it a tie. And it’s what the press calls it that matters.

    And a Huckabee win is not that big because the others will view it as a quick rise that can be turned into a quick defeat as they start hammering him.

    1. AT THIS time of the YEAR I WOULD LIKE to say THANK YOU for your GRATUITOUS USE OF CAPS on THIS BLOG.  It REALLY gets YOUR POINT across.

      If YOU didn’t USE CAPS we would NEVER UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU ARE SAYING.

    1. I have posted in only one name on this blog.

      At first I thought your question a fictitious insult.  But after checking, I see there really was someone who used that handle.

      Though I am not Anti-Focus, I am not a Focus on the Family Cheerleader either.  

        1. I took no offence.  I was just surprised to find that handle had actually been used.

          I didn’t start out a Romney supporter. I liked Duncan Hunter (Still do) and Mike Huckabee (Not so much).

          I have come to see that in total, Romney has the best balance of experience, core values and message.

          It was actually robert who caused me to take a closer look at Mitt.  I expected to have something else to argue with him about, but found he was right for a change.  

          Don’t tell him I said that it being Christmas and all.  his head will swell up and he won’t be able to get down the stairs to the basement to get that coal he is going to put in my stocking.

          Happy Holidays

          …NEWSMAN…

          1. …that Mitt will be the Dem’s (whomever) most difficult adversary.  Looks count for a hell of a lot, sad to say, and he is good looking. His other qualifications I find so-so, nothing greatly inspiring but nothing greatly negative.  

  3. I believe Huckabee will win in Iowa, but crater elsewhere as he fails to appeal to significant clusters of voters outside those focused on faith-based issues.  Iowa has a larger than average collection of such voters.

    I believe the Rep race will come down to Romney and Giuliani as they appeal to the largest number of voter interest clusters.

  4.    Last week, the Manchester Union Leader, the ears and mouth of N.H. right wing nuts, endorsed John McCain for president.

      Yesterday, the Concord Monitor, the paper read by Dems and RINOs in the Granite State, endorsed anybody but Romney in the GOP primary, panning “Mittens” for being a “phony.”  It dedicated 13 paragraphs to detailing his numerous flip flops over the past few years.

    1.  

      Yes I saw that. No big surprises in either one, a little surprise on the McCain endorsement.

      The reason I posted this was I thought the article’s  (Is it down to Mitt and Mike?) handicapping would make for some interesting comments and start a discussion.

      I have come to see that Romney would make a good choice for the Republican nomination, and he could win in November.  I also see that the Fresh, ” Bright, clean, and articulate”  Obama could beat us in the general, which is why I hope the Dem’s choose Mrs. Clinton or “Slick trial lawyer” Edwards.

  5. Ok, worse case senario.  Let’s say Mike wins Iowa and McCain pulls out a win in New Hampshire (possible since McCain has been rising in NH).  Mike wins South Carolina, Mitt maybe wins Michigan and Nevada.  With the momentum spread out so thinnly, Giuliani would beneficary, correct?

    1.    While it is possible that would be the effect of such a split (in fact, I think that’s Giuliani’ strategy now…pray for a three way split…pretty lame strategy), it is also conceivable that the split continues throughout the spring with each candidate picking up a few states here and a few states there.

        While I never thought that I’d actually see it happen in my lifetime, it’s conceivable the GOP could have a brokered convention!  The big mystery, of course, is who would they pick.

        It’s virtually impossible that the Dems could end up with such a result since their race will dwindle to HRC v. Obama by 9 pm. on Jan. 8, at the latest.  It’s hard to see a brokered convention when it’s one-on-one.

        But if the Dems did have a deadlocked convention, they have a candidate waiting in the wings to claim the prize:  Al Gore.

        Who could the GOP turn to?  Newt Gingrich?  Jeb?

      1. I think that the GOP would settle on an announced candidate-going with someone else would piss off all camps.  Romney has a lot of organization and endorsements that could help in a nomination fight, but a real surprise (like McCain) could emerge

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