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August 22, 2014 03:23 PM UTC

Big Line Updates; Now, with Percentages!

  • 34 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We have occasionally changed the appearance of The Big Line from representing fractional odds to presenting percentages. It's a matter of preference, of course, but as Election Day nears and Colorado Pols attracts more and new readers, we figured now would be a good time to switch again to percentages.

Here's what we're currently thinking as to the main movers in the top races in Colorado. For the first time this cycle, we've also added Lines for State Senate and State House majorities, respectively.

U.S. SENATE
Mark Udall (65%)
Cory Gardner (35%)
Gardner has been throwing multiple messages at the wall of late, which is typically the sign of a campaign that doesn't feel confident in the direction it is headed. There's a saying in football that if you are rotating more than one quarterback into the game, then you don't really have a quarterback. If you're a Gardner fan, this is a very difficult question to answer: What is his path to victory here?

 

GOVERNOR
John Hickenlooper (68%)
Bob Beauprez (32%)
While there has never been a point in this race where it really felt like Gov. Hickenlooper was in trouble, Hick has made enough errors that it has provided Beauprez with an opportunity. Still, Beauprez can't win just by running a decent race; if Hick stops his stumble, there's not enough room for Beauprez to squeeze past in November.
 

ATTORNEY GENERAL, STATE TREASURER, SECRETARY OF STATE
With so much money going into races for the U.S. Senate and CD-6, there will be little oxygen left in the room for candidates in the other statewide races after Governor. It's difficult to tell at this stage whether any of the candidates will be able to do enough to make their own luck.
 

CD-6 (Aurora-ish)
Andrew Romanoff (54%)
Mike Coffman (46%)
We wrote earlier about our belief that Countdown Coffman is underway following incumbent Rep. Coffman's boorish behavior in last week's debates. We've been hearing consistent buzz that Romanoff is now rising steadily while Coffman seeks the momentum he needs to prevent a complete collapse.
 

STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (55%)
REPUBLICANS (45%)
We usually wait until this point in the cycle to attempt handicapping state legislative outcomes, but our analysis is similar to what we anticipated in the aftermath of the June Primary. Tea Party victories in two key Senate districts (SD-19 and SD-22) make winning the majority an uphill battle for Republicans.


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (75%)
REPUBLICANS (25%)
The ballot wasn't even completely settled until recently, but the direction of this battle has been clear for some time. Republicans have had difficulty even finding candidates for 2014; the GOP will be lucky not to lose a seat or two at this point.


Check out the full Big Line 2014 or comment below.

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34 thoughts on “Big Line Updates; Now, with Percentages!”

  1. Gardner has NO path to victory, and the polls will soon reflect that. His candidacy was a terrible idea from the start — far too much politcal baggage, far too little name recognition, and an utterly sleazy persona. The guy never encountered a political position he couldn't or wouldn't attempt to co-opt if expediency demanded it.

    Coffman and Both Ways aren't even worth mentioning.

    Adios, los tres pobrecitos.

        1. Gardner getting sh*t kicked out of him in TV ads. These are much more hard-hitting and compelling than any of the other sides' Koch/Obamacare Lie ads. And this is coming from a guy that's quite fed up with his own side.

      1. I may have been too subtle, or Alva is on break.  I was implying a problem with the 65% to 45% numbers they calculated for CD-3.  I see they still expect 110% in that race 😉

          1. Maybe they meant 110% turnout from the PREVIOUS turnout…

            As in like 1 goat showed up to vote, and now the goat brought his wife and a kid to vote….

             

             

  4. Colorado is fully a blue state, especially in state-wide political offices.  As in the rest of the country, the GOP has the most geographical territory but the Dems have the popular vote.

    1. That’s close to what they have. Out of 10 polls, Gardner leads in 3 and two of them are push polls from the Gardner campaign and the last poll had Udall over 50 and ahead by 4.

        1. Those numbers make sense. Sabato Has It As Lean Dem, 538 has 60/40 and huff has it as 75/25. Ep has him up 2 and ev has home down 1 and cook has it as toss up or lean.

      3. Obama's veto pen

         

        need 60 votes to pass a bill in the senate

         

        dems retake the senate 2 years later when Hillary runs and crushed the wingnuts by double digits as the democrats have by far a much easier path to 270 electoral college votes than conservatives do. Bye bye conservatives. 🙂

        1. These facts make me a very happy democrat and make you a very sad and depressed conservative Andrew, Just like the wingnuts have been doing for the last few years, the democrats can return the favor by obstructing the wingnuts who will most certainly lose both the senate and white house in 2016. 🙂

      4. You might lie by omission a bit less, since you are, after all, showing the RCP "No Toss Up" map and not identifying it as such.

        The actual map looks like this:

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