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September 06, 2008 08:35 AM UTC

The economy is in really bad shape, and getting worse...

  • 29 Comments
  • by: DavidThi808

A recession is when you’re neighbor is out of work. A depression is when you are out of work.

got the below links/quotes from DailyKOS – quote and graph from Brad DeLong

Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers…

And from the Mercury News we have:

Meanwhile, a greater portion of homeowners nationwide fell behind on their mortgage payments in the second quarter than during any quarter on record, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday. Nationally, a seasonally adjusted 6.41 percent of residential mortgages were delinquent, or at least 30 days overdue.

In California, 5.78 percent of residential mortgages were overdue at the end of the quarter, up from 5.25 percent in the previous quarter. California ranked 26th for delinquent loans but third for new foreclosures initiated, with 1.82 percent of residential loans entering foreclosure in the second quarter. Typically, lenders do not begin foreclosure proceedings until borrowers have missed a few monthly payments.

First off, this is bad news for all of us. Things could get a lot worse fast because the fundamental problems still exist. And the shape of that graph going forward is scary.

Second, this is horrible news for the Republicans. If people think their job may go away, they want change and they want it now. Maybe all Obama should do while campaigning is say “remember, McCain is the Republican.”

Comments

29 thoughts on “The economy is in really bad shape, and getting worse…

  1. are also reported to be going into receivership.  This isn’t a good sign for the housing industry either.  These are warning signs that our economic crisis isn’t over.  I personally know a couple of white collar friends who have been out of work for multiple months.  They are struggling to find a job and keep their houses.

  2. Official unemployment rate is 6.1% last week.  And we all know what that really means.  Two recent examples:

    1.  Kohl’s had a four day job fair a month ago looking for 150 employees for a new store.  In the first day they had 1000 applicants.

    2.  Up at the local BK a week ago an employee told the manager someone wasn’t going to make it in.  She said, “I have a stack of job applicants like this (holding her hands six inches apart)and the phone ringing right now is probably someone asking, ‘How about my job app?’.”

    One good result is that all commercial construction including several hotel projects are on hold.  Like we don’t have enough blight already.  

    Sarasota County schools will use 1/2 of their rainy day fund to stay afloat this year.  Manatee County has none left.

    Property values are still sinking, although not as fast as a year ago.  

    Maybe hurricane Ike will ramp up the construction market again…….

      1. This is the third year running we will “enjoy” the tax cut you get when you’re paying less in taxes due to having so much less income from your small business (the kind Republicans are supposed to be so good for) because your clients all have less money to spend.  If we all get really lucky, we can go broke and pay NO income taxes. That’s been the main source of tax breaks for American middle and low income earners under Bush;  the same trickle down bull McCain plans to continue.

        The people selling the goods and services we have cut back on buying are probably enjoying the same kind of break.

        Under Clinton we may have paid slightly more percentage wise but mainly our tax bill was higher because our income was so damn much higher.   I’d gladly give up our piddling tax “break” for our old income.  We’d be many thousands ahead.

  3. What annoys me most is that Americans have not been asked to sacrifice anything over the last eight years. From 9/11 to Afghanistan to Iraq to the fiscal mess we’re in now, we were told to keep shopping, keep spending, keep charging.

    And our government has been an excellent role model.

    Now, the crisis is coming to a head.  If Americans had tightened up their finances, saved money, cut expenses, our society would be better prepared for the crash.

    Personally, I’m better off than I was eight years ago. My pay has increased, my savings have increased and my expenses are in line with my income.  I have no debt.

    Not many Americans are able to say that.  

    The reason I’m better off – my family’s conservative fiscal policies.

    Ironic, huh?  

      1. complaining in his address about mortgaging our kids to the current economy?  You’d think he had nothing to do with approving of of the war or the funding of it.

  4. Yes we are in a war and there is an energy crisis worldwide that is fueling inflation.  That’s why I find it amazing that our economy still grew at a 3.3% rate last quarter.  Our unemployment rate through this decade is still lower than the 60s, 70s, 80s, or 90s.  We are certainly not in a recession or a depression.  That is simply hysterical afactual propaganda to get Democrats elected.  In fact, if Obama is elected the economy is certain to suffer.  Raising taxes to redistribute wealth will kill jobs.  Raising taxes on oil companies will result in higher prices at the pump as corporate taxes are always passed on to consumers.  Promising to raise taxes on capital gains will prompt investors to withdraw their dollars before he is inaugurated.  Obama’s plans will have harmful consequences.  McCain’s free market policies and low taxe promises will result in growth.

    1. Of course, the mere fact that you don’t have your facts correct adds nothing to your case.

      The economy always does better under Dems and the proposals of Obama are classicly good for everyone: build our infrastructure for the future.

      Welcome aboard.  Say, you aren’t one of those trolls sent by McBush, are you?  

      1. Where you around for Jimmy Carter? Obama’s economic policies are identical and we ended up with gas lines and went darn close to a full depression, never mind a recession.

        For those looking at the Clinton years, remember what was actually happening:

        1. Clinton made massive cuts in defense spending and infrastructure programs. I would have agreed, had it not resulted in our military being gutted in a time when we desperately need them.

        2. The job growth and wages that everyone is so fond of mentioning were part of the technology/ dot com bubble… that Clinton had nothing to do with and which burst in the 4th quarter of 2000.

        Now, look at what were are spending our money on:

        1. National defense that Clinton gutted

        2. Addressing the NAFTA issues (Clinton idea) and other global trade inequities (also Clinton policies)

        3. The economic impact of decision that have been avoided by both parties for over 30 years.

        Yes, the economy is terrible. Everyone acknowledges that. The reasons for it are massive increases in federal spending, the impact of a global economy and transition from blue collar jobs to most jobs requiring college degrees.

        The solution is clear- foster job creation, cut spending, level the global playing field and promote trade and create a comprehensive plan to transition people to jobs with increasing demand.

        These are precisely the things that McCain is proposing. Obama is proposing over 500 billion in new spending to add to our current Federal bankruptcy. McCain is calling for a spending freeze.

        Taken from a different perspective- assuming that Obama’s new taxes would actually pay for all this new spending, it still neglects the simple fact that we are ALREADY spending more than we have.  

        1. I thought John McCain was a full-throated supporter of NAFTA, now you are saying he has flip-flopped again? I don’t think so.

          And you should study your history. Clinton supported NAFTA, yes, but it was negotiated and signed by George H.W. Bush in 1992.

        2. Clinton made massive military cuts after the Reagan excesses.  He cut parts of the military that were recommended by none other than Darth Cheney during the Bush I years.

          Clinton’s economic policies very much were a factor in the boom times of his administration.  As I extensively, recently tried to inform one of my fellow Dems, by hiking taxes a bit on the rich, by cutting government spending, the government could pay down its own debt.  That lowered the cost of borrowing for business (and all debtor institutions) which allowed the boom to take place.  Might also add Al Gore’s prominence in getting funding through to make the internet what it is today.

          Opinions are one thing, facts are another.  And you won’t get the truth wherever you are elsewhere hanging out.  

          But I appreciate your calm dialogue.

    2. Wages have been stagnant this decade.  Homes are being foreclosed at an alarming rate, most jobs have become contract and 47 million people don’t have health care.  To me, it looks like the “growth” has been for the top and only the top.  The unemployment rate at the end of Clinton’s Presidency was at 4%.  

    3. Yes the last 8 years have been ok, but they have not been great. I want Clinton levels of growth, not Bush/McCain levels of mediocrity.

      Obama wants to raise my taxes to improve the economy? YES! That is what those of us in the business world call a wise investment. If each additional dollar of taxes boosts the economy enough that I make an additional $2.00 in profit – then yes, I’d be a fool to not support his tax plan.

      You clearly either don’t understand how markets work, or are so determined not to pay your fair share, you don’t care if the end result is no one pays and we see the economy continue to run at half speed.

      1. But as much as people talk about investment portfolios, these people don’t know the true meaning of investing in anyone or anything.  They just live in a NIMBY world where they got theirs and everyone else can go to hell.  

      2. Since when has giving money to the government been a good investment? I don’t know how you run your business, but I am paid BEFORE profit, not after it. Equity has nothing to do with earnings.

        The tax Obama proposes has little impact on my personal income, but is devastating for my business profit- which is how I plan for and fund growth, jobs and development.  

        It’s simple- I can pay the government to create and fund an agency to study how to create jobs or I can use the same money to hire someone or expand the company.

        In the best case scenario, $1 paid into the government nets a 5% return… again, best case. If I hire someone, I should see an immediate return on investment of at least 40-60%.

        Remind me not to invest in your company.

        1. You may not mind if we become just like a third world country where all the wealth is concentrated in a few hands while the majority struggle to get by but the rest of us care a lot.  

          And considering how unstable countries with that sort of balance are as  opposed to the stability of countries with a broad prosperous empowered middle class, even  those at the top ought to be concerned. They just might find themselves holed up in armed compounds with the desperate rabble  making revolution, as has often happened in third world oligarchies, if the present shrinking of the middle class and widening of the gulf between the top 1% and the rest of us continues.

          The top 1%  has been successfully waging class warfare on the rest of us and winning big for the years of the Bush regime but that may not always be the case.  Best to end the warfare with a return to a balance that really DOES raise all boats with growth from the roots up, starting with tax benefits for 95% of us, not just a few, as Obama has in mind.  

          Most of us LOVED that awful Democratic economy under the Clinton adminstration. If he could have kept his damn pants zipped, the past eight crushing, bloody years would never have happened, a wealthy empowered Russia wouldn’t be rolling through Georgia, the Taliban, el-Qaeda and Iran wouldn’t be sitting so pretty, nor would our grandchildren be buried in debt to the Chinese.  

          1. …what do you expect from someone who’s obviously got theirs and he could care less about the rest of us, or even those that work for his company.  

        2. Police protection.

          Fire protection.

          An educated workforce.

          Support of all forms of transportation.

          (Attempted) transparency of financial institutions.

          The military.

          The courts.

          Etc.

          Etc.

          Etc.

        3. Let me give you a real simple example. We hire interns from CU every year. They do a great job and are inexpensive. (And it works well for them – they learn a ton in the internship.)

          If we could find twice as many interns each year, we would hire them and make a profit off of them. So if the state increases my taxes by say $10,000.00 and uses that to increase the number of students at CU by 20%, then I can find 4 more students to hire and each of those brings me an additional $20,000.00 of profit for a total of $80,000.00. An 8:1 ROI is a great deal.

          And that doesn’t even hit the more important general issue – a no government economy like Somalia has very little business. A vibrant growing economy like Clinton provided means there is a lot more business for everyone. The law of supply & demand means that more demand means more business.

          You flunk one of the most elemental rules of business – you have to invest to have a return. Or as one person put it (the CEO of the largest chain of Sonic drive-ins) – you could make a lot more money if you weren’t such a greedy bastard.

        4. The tax Obama proposes has little impact on my personal income, but is devastating for my business profit- which is how I plan for and fund growth, jobs and development.

          The money you spend on “growth, jobs and development” is not taxed – it’s an expense and comes before profit is calculated. The tax is on profit only.

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