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November 03, 2008 09:52 PM UTC

Election Eve Prediction time

  • 126 Comments
  • by: Haners

You know what to do…

Update by DavidThi: Voting has started, Obama winning

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126 thoughts on “Election Eve Prediction time”

  1. Not in being the state that tips it, but in having the chaos that gets attention. Why? Well we expect it in Floria, I think Ohio will be marginally better, and the focus is often on very close states.

    Indiana will also have big problems, but only in Lake County where a lack of polling places will keep things backed up long after the polls are supposed to close.

      1. But I think with Obama neither pulling off a landslide that they could talk about endlessly or a close election they’ll focus in on some other issue to report to death.

        Oh, yeah. And that’s my prediction on the presidency. Short of 375, no Georgia or Indiana, probably not Missouri either. And Musgrave gets reelected to congress again because people were embarrassed to say they’d vote for her in polls, but they’re still Republicans. I’ll be very happy if I’m wrong, but I don’t think she’s ever going away.

  2. 1.  McCain goes down in Colorado but Schaffer will close to within 2 points.  

    2.  Omaba wins both the Popular and Electoral vote.

    3.  Markey and Musgrave go down to the wire but ultimately Markey wins. Brophy then launches his exploratory committee.

    4.  Lamborn and Coffman win handily.

    5.  Colorado Republicans pick up one State Senate seat and two House seats.  

    6.  And we win at the County Commissioner level.  Including Gardield, Mesa, and Jeffco.  

    2. Which Senate and House seats?  Recently the Dems have made an expensive play for HD 25 (Jeffco Mountains – Witwer’s seat) which no one thought was in play.  This tells me that everything else is secured for the dems and they are trolling for pick-ups, however unlikely.

      Are you kidding about Jeffco?  The County is trending the other way, this is a democratic year, the deomcrats have two decent candidates and there is a lot of controversy about the courthouse.  I think the Dems win at least one, I just don’t know which one.

      I also disagree on Coffman.  I think it will be much closer than people think given his recent negative publicity and public rebuke by a Federal Judge and his childish response. I still think he wins, but more like 53-47.

      As to Schaffer, Udall wins by at least 8 points.

      1. on Jeffco commish going at least one D, I’d guess the most likely is Jason Bane, if only because McCaskey is more closely linked to the disgraced Congrove. Faye Griffin, conversely, really has been on the good side of the Jeffco Rs and is clean. But Windels is well known and Jeffco, yes, JEFFCO!, is going blue this year.    

        1. As much abuse as she has taken from the anti-CEA, anti-public school brigade, Sue Windels works and plays very well with those on both sides of the aisle and I think she will prevail. It’s a shame the Rs ran Faye Griffin, because she is the rare Jeffco R I have cheerfully voted for, first for clerk and then treasurer when she waded in to clean up Paschall’s mess.  

          1. is griffin will still be treasurer if Windels wins, IIRC, she has two years left on that term. As Obama says in Audacity of Hope, “signs don’t vote.”  But windels brings high name recognition in a year when the winds are at the Ds’ backs.

             Remember that while commissioners must live in the district, voting is county wide so the overall D surge should help both bane and windels.  If I see a 3-0 Democratic commission in Jeffco, I can retire after 37 years at The Post confident that I have seen everything! (I’ve seen it 2-1 when Betty Miller was chair, but if memory serves there was still one R on the board then.)

          2. on Griffin.  

            It is too bad that Windels didn’t take on McCaskey.  While Bane is a good guy, he doesn’t have the recognition to take on McCaskey–Windels does.  

            As it is, one of two very good public servants is going down (Windels/Griffin); while one absolute slime of a politican (McCaskey) has a very good chance of retaining his seat…

            1. voting is countywide but candidates have to live in the district inh Jeffco.

              (arapahoe and some other counties have 5 districts. There, voting is by district only.) And as I said above, griffin stays on as treasurer even if she loses to Windels since she won a four year term in 06.

            2. I work for Jason. The Bane campaign has interacted with 80,000 voters in person with lit drops and canvassing, not to mention three mail pieces. Meanwhile, Kevin has been at the center of controversy and is still sitting on 35,000 of unused campaign funds.

              We’ll win it.

    3. http://is.gd/6gM8 (link to Bob Moore’s blog)

      Pretty astute, I thought.

      Kyle Saunders of the Colorado State University political science department put together a pretty nice analysis over the weekend on what kind of vote totals in key counties Betsy Markey will need if she is to unseat Rep. Marilyn Musgrave.

      Saunders looked at the vote totals from the 2006 race in which Musgrave defeated Angie Paccione by 2.5 percentage points. Eric Eidsness ran a very strong third-party campaign that year, which complicates the analysis a bit. Saunders divided Eidsness’ vote evenly between the Republicans and Democrats for the purpose of the analysis.

      Saunders calculates that to win, Markey needs to pull in about 56 percent of the Larimer County vote, 58 percent of the Boulder County vote, 47 percent of the Weld County vote and 33 percent in the remainder of the district. In each case, that’s 2 to 3 points better than the 2006 performance by Paccione and half the Eidsness votes.

      So what will it take for Markey to hit those percentages in a district that has 45,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats? Simply put, she must post a landslide among unaffiliated voters, who account for more than a third of all 4th Congressional District voters.

      I ran a scenario that assumes that 90 percent of registered Democrats and Republicans vote, as do 85 percent of unaffiliated voters. If you assume Markey and Musgrave each carry about 90 percent of their parties’ voters, then Markey would need just over 63 percent of unaffiliated voters to triumph. Markey’d need a bit less than that if she fares better among Republicans than Musgrave does among Democrats.

      Winning 60-plus percent of unaffiliated voters is a tall order, but not impossible. A Survey USA poll in late August found Markey leading Musgrave 59-29 percent among unaffiliated voters, with 12 percent undecided. That was a long time ago, before either campaign ramped up its advertising messages, but the poll pointed out serious problems for Musgrave among unaffiliated voters as the campaign began. Still, these numbers are a reminder of how difficult it is for a Democrat to win in the 4th Congressional District.

      1. Eric Eidsness ran a very strong third-party campaign that year, which complicates the analysis a bit. Saunders divided Eidsness’ vote evenly between the Republicans and Democrats for the purpose of the analysis.

        Simply not accurate.  Think Perot voters–They broke more than 2-1 for the GOP.

  3. We pick up the Senate seats in Alaska and Oregon. I think most people agree we have VA, CO, NM and NH in the bag for the Senate.

    I don’t really have any other predictions, except that Colorado is going blue all the way, from the presidential, to the senate, to picking up another House seat in CD4.

  4. Thirty-five minutes after the polls close on the East Coast, the networks will be anointing Barack Obama as the official next President of the U.S.

    By then most of the results from Florida and Virginia will be in, and Obama will have won them both – thus sealing the election regardless of what happens in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

      1. But they don’t call the national race until enough states have closed with the votes to put one candidate over the top. So we all know Obama will win California, but they can’t say that till 7:00 pacific time and if he needs the California votes to win, then they wait for that to call it.

        But if Obama takes any 2 of Virginia, Ohio & Florida, then he’s won. We may know that by 8:00 EST.

        And in Hawaii, by the time they’re voting, it’s all over…

        1. at 11 p.m. Eastern, the same time they do in California, Washington and parts of Oregon (some Oregon polls close an hour earlier). Alaska polls are open an hour later.

          1. If, despondent at a certain loss based on polls elsewhere, enough Alaska Republicans stay home to tip the state to Obama-Biden?

            That would be just too sweet.

      2. Also it’s nice to know that this time around Ohio has a Dem SOS so there should be no state sponsored voter suppression there.  In Florida, Crist has been no more than politely supportive of Bush in the closing post-Palin pick days and is certainly not going to risk his rep by trying to put his thumb on the scale. His willingness to get more machines to Broward and extend early voting hours shows he wants to be above suspicion.  Election day will be messy in those two states, as well as many others, but there won’t be an effort from the top to throw it to McCain in either one.

  5. It’s not just that Obama will win, but that it will be viewed as a blow-out, a total smack-down of the Republican/Bush approach to governing our country.

    We Dems will end up with 58 – 60 Senate seats. And with a number of Republican Senators looking at a ’10 election, we’ll be able to get the Senate to vote on bills.

    We Dems will end up with enough House seats that we will not have to craft bills that are acceptable to every blue dog Dem in the House.

    A number of the most visible hate-monger Republicans like Musgrave, Bachmann, & Lord will be gone. And that will elevate the political discourse a bit – because the lesson will be the one that dives in to the gutter – loses.

    California will keep same-sex marriage, Colorado will increase funding of education (hopefully both), across the country in questions large and small there will be a very progressive bent to the results.

    Conservatives will wail and rend their garments. Evangelicals will look skyward for the rapture. Many Republican politicians will tell each other that the people still want what they’re selling – they do! they do!

    And on Wednesday you will see stock markets rise world-wide, people celebrating in the streets world-wide, and the country will switch from despair to hope, from worries about how much worse it’s going to get to thoughts about how we are going to improve things.

    Life is good.

  6. I predict that sxp151 will not get his beer, but Obama will come close enough that he(?)’ll be crying in his beer over just how close he was…

    Al Franken will beat Norm Coleman in Missouri, giving Dems their 59th Senate seat.  (All the other lean-Dem races do in fact go for the Democrat, including Kay Hagan in NC and Jeff Merkley in OR.)

    The exceptionally high turnout of African-American voters in Georgia will have Jim Martin leading Saxby Chambliss narrowly; the race will head to a very expensive and heavily watched runoff for the Democratic Caucus’s 60th seat.

    Musgrave will be defeated, along with several of her more odious colleagues in the House.  (Bachmann, Garrett, and possibly Shaddegg at the least…)  Democrats pick up 28 seats in the House.

    2. Olympia Snowe into the Cabinet from her Senate seat in Maine, creating a vacancy to be filled by the state’s Democratic governor, so the Chamblis seat won’t be crucial. But Chamblis will win a run-off (African American turnout won’t be nearly as high in a run-off, and a bit of buyer’s remorse will set in too).

      1. Didn’t mean to imply that Martin would win the runoff, only that a win for him would mean the Democrats get 60.

        There’s an even chance that one or both of the ladies from Maine start working for the Democratic team, either in a Cabinet post or by switching parties.  Of course, they could try and stay in the GOP to start turning the wayward ship around, too.

      3. Although my guess is that Snowe wouldn’t take it. She is just loyal enough to keep filibustering, if she can.

        Now if we get 60 seats anyway (as I think we will), Snowe would of course take a position. Then we meet Joe Lieberman in the Senate break room…

        1. wouldn’t always mean 60 votes anyway.   There are a number of pretty conservative Dems.  Not to mention Lieberman.  He may as well caucus with the Rs if we don’t need him to hold the majority which we won’t.  

          By the same token, less than 60 doesn’t mean Dems couldn’t move quite a bit of legislation.  A few Rs have voted with Dems on several things.  60 Dems is probably not going to happen.  More like 58?

          1. on both counts. Rare that a filibuster got EVERY Republican, for example. We could occasionally pick off Specter, Snowe, Collins, Lugar, or Voinovich for close votes. And we’ll lose Lieberman a lot if we’re depending on him, along with Landrieu, Pryor, etc.

      4. Neither will ever leave the Republican Party, period.  They just won’t.  They both come from generations of Rockefeller Republicans, that’s just who they are.

        AS for a cabinet post, Olympia would be a great choice for something.  Doubt she will take it.  If she does, it will be as close to turning into a Democrat as she ever will be.

          1. Maggie Smith 4 term Senator, the first women to have her name entered into nomination for a major party for the presidency (1960)

            And what I love about her.

            [Maggie] Smith was an early opponent of Senator Joseph McCarthy. On June 1, 1950, she gave her Declaration of Conscience speech on the floor of the Senate, earning McCarthy’s permanent ire and the nickname “Moscow Maggie” from his staff.[1] In 1954, when McCarthy attempted to challenge her seat by sponsoring a primary challenger, the Maine voters rejected the effort.

            I had never even heard of her (before my time) until a little piece on NPR led me to do some casual exploring and I found the “Declaration of Conscience”

            http://www.americanrhetoric.co…

            Its long otherwise I would post it, it is definitely worth a read.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M…

        2. Maine Republican Sen. William Cohen took a cabinet post in the Clinton administration when he did his bipartisan shuffle, so there’s precedent for it. I admit, she might be less likely to do so if it tipped the Democrats to 60, but that’s really not such a magic number anyway — Collins or Snowe would probably be a vote for cloture on most issues.

    3. Hosting a big party tomorrow night, expecting to celebrate. But I still think we’ll get 375:

      all Kerry states + VA + OH + NC + CO + NM + VA + FL + IA + MO + IN.

      If we get Georgia or Arizona I think I may get alcohol poisoning.

      Senate: 60. We keep all our seats and win CO, NM, VA, AK, NH, OR, NC, MN, and KY. (GA goes to a runoff, which we win in December to get 61, and we just barely lose MS.)

      House: Just to make it easy, I’ll go by Rothenberg’s list: We win everything listed as “Pure Toss-Up” except Mahoney’s Florida seat. We win all Toss-Up/Tilt Republican and all Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic. From the Lean Republican column, we pull an upset against Sali in Idaho and beat Mean Jean Schmidt in Ohio, and we keep Lampson’s Texas district. We win all Lean Democratic and all Democrat Favored. And from the Republican Favored list, we take only Bachmann’s Minnesota seat and Gerlach’s Pennsylvania seat and the Wyoming open seat.

      On the whole that’s a pickup of 32 Republican seats, and a loss of Mahoney’s seat, for a net gain of 30. That gives us 266 to 169, if I added correctly.

      1. Never trust a math teacher to add simple numbers. 🙂

        Our pickups:

           * CT 4 (Shays, R) #

           * FL 21 (L. Diaz-Balart, R)

           * MI 7 (Walberg, R) #

           * NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R) #

           * NJ 7 (Open; Ferguson, R)

           * OH 1 (Chabot, R) #

           * OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)

           * AL 2 (Open; Everett, R) #

           * FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart, R) #

           * IL 10 (Kirk, R) #

           * KY 2 (Open; Lewis, R) #

           * LA 4 (Open; McCrery, R)

           * MD 1 (Open; Gilchrest, R) #

           * MO 9 (Open; Hulshof, R) #

           * NY 26 (Open; Reynolds, R)

           * VA 2 (Drake, R) #

           * WA 8 (Reichert, R)

           * CO 4 (Musgrave, R)

           * FL 8 (Keller, R) #

           * IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)

           * MI 9 (Knollenberg, R) #

           * MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R) #

           * NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)

           * NM1 (Open; Wilson, R) #

           * NY 29 (Kuhl, R) #

           * NC 8 (Hayes, R) #

           * PA 3 (English, R) #

           * ID 1 (Sali, R) #

           * OH 2 (Schmidt, R)

           * AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R) #

           * FL 24 (Feeney, R) #

           * NV 3 (Porter, R) #

           * OH 16 (Open; Regula, R) #

           * VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)

           * MN 6 (Bachmann, R)

           * PA 6 (Gerlach, R)

           * WY A-L (Open; Cubin, R) ^

           * AK A-L (Young, R)

           * NY 13 (Open; Fossella, R)

           * NY 25 (Open; Walsh, R)

        That’s 40 pickups, and 1 loss, for a net of 39, which gets Democrats to 274, with Republicans at 161.

  7. Rs will lose one.

    Evie Hudak will win Jeffco SD 19 replacing Sue Windels.  Overall D surge too much for R Libby Szabo.

    SB 26, Arapahoe, Jeffco. Steve Ward’s old seat goes to (opens envelope) … Linda Newell, D.  R Lauri Clapp hasn’t caught fire, her record in the House is too conservative for a district where Democrat is no longer a dirty word.

      SD 23 Adams Broomfield Weld. Incumbent Shawn Mitchell, R, holds on against D Joe Whitcomb (noun, verb, “Army Ranger.)  This is close, however.  A Hudak Newell win puts the Ds at 21-14, giving them a stronger edge in committee assignments. A Mitchell loss makes David Thi very happy and sends the Rs to 22-13.

     In the House, Rs pick up one seat, only by virtue of  Debbie Stafford’s Arapahoe-Elbert seat reverting to its natural Republican orientation. (She switched parties last year.) Republican Cindy Acree should hold off a surprisingly strong challenge froim Democrat Karen Wilde.

    But hold the champagne. Rs. could lose HD 17 in El Paso County, vacated by moderate outgoing R Stella Garza Hicks. Democrat Dennis Apuan is running well against Republican Kit Roupe.

    Republicans have a decent shot at Mary Hodge’s old seat in Adams HD 30 where R Kevin Priola faces D Dave Rose, former mayor of Brighton.

     Rs also hope John Bodnar can recapture the HD 27 Jefferson County seat Democrat Sara Gagliardi took from a weak GOP incumbent in 2006.

      But nothing has gone right for the Republican Party in Colorado this year and I’d call it Acree wins for the Rs, Gagliardi, Rose and Apuan for the Ds.

     No net change, House stays 40-25.  

     At best, Priola and Bodnar pull it off, House goes 38-27. Either way, a big D margin.    

    2. Dems are making an expensive try for HD 25, Cheri Gerou (R-Evergreen) and Andrew Scripter (D-Arvada).  Don’t know whether it will work, but it indicates to me that they’re done in other seats and are trolling for other opportunities.

    3. handily defeat Bodnar.  There has been an independent expenditure group hammering him on cable for the last month here in Arvada over his apparent support for denying cancer patients insurance coverage.

      Not sure how accurate it is (I rather doubt it is, actually) but it is pretty hard hitting and he’s not responded.

      Gagliardi hasn’t given voters in Arvada any reason to turn her out.

      1. think swalm is up by about 5 points. But he barely squeaked in 2 years ago over a fine campaign by Engel. Holland is running a good campaign and has the Obama surge going for her. Conversely, swalm won a divisive primary two years ago, was spared that this year.  Plus incumbency is a big deal in legislative seats.  If I was betting, I’d bet on Swalm but if Holland takes him, it’s proof of just how extensively the colorado political map has changed this year.

         Personally, I think David Balmer may be in more trouble than Swalm, though I think he will survive. Arapahoe is far from the republican citadel of yesteryear.

          1. a very narrow Balmer loss. Those are the same voters who surprised Arapahoe County last election, and Cullom has matched Balmer on the ground. Forward Colorado makes the difference in this race.

    5. With Joe Rice keeping HD38 (which would make him not just the first D elected there in 35 years but the first EVER to be re-elected) that would complete a big change in a part of Arapahoe County where Rs still outnumber Ds.  Joe’s got a stronger opponent than he had in 2006 but still seems to be running well.  He has really been devoted to constituent service and communication and has lots of indie and a nice little chunk of R support. Has gotten a lot of good pres,too.

      Of course, If Steve Ward had not decided to drop the state senate seat he was appointed to for his hopeless quest for the CD6 R congressional nomination, he would have been unbeatable and the seat would still be a perfectly safe R.  A Colonel in the Marine Reserve who served in both Afghanistan and Iraq in a Republican district?  Dems wouldn’t have wasted any significant money contesting.  

  8. Obama 307

    McCain 231

    McCain “somehow” wins Florida and Dems are left scratching their heads…not that it will matter.  Also, NC goes McCain…but by the time they call it we won’t care.

    In other news…

    – Obama over McCain by 4% in CO

    – Udall over Schaffer by 9%

    – Markey over Musty by 4%

    – Polis covers the spread (in the CU PoliSci pool) and hits 63%

    – Hagan by 6% in NC

    – Saxby Chambliss (the greatest name EVER) wins, but ends up in a runoff thanks to the Libertarian pulling 4%

    – Norm Coleman gets the benefit of people having a “come to Jesus moment” in the voting booth.  “Senator Al Franken!?  WTF was I thinking?!”  Coleman by 2%

    – Merkley over Smith by 4%

    Dems take 259 seats in the House.  58 in the Senate.

    3. I’m going with:

      O 364

      M 174

      Obama wins Colo. by 7%

      Udall beats Schaffer by 8%

      Markey over Musgrave by 4%

      Hagan over Dole

      Franken over Coleman by a fraction of a %, prompting recount

      Senate totals:

      Dems 58

      Repubs 41

      plus one Lieberman

      House:

      Dems 261

      Repubs 174

    4. You mean like in 2000, I don’t think so.  Gov. Crist is bending over backwards to be above suspicion.  He brought in extra voting machines to Broward during early voting in the face of 4 hour waits and expanded early voting hours in the second week.  Between that and the lame excuses he found to avoid some important campaign events with McCain, I don’t think he likes McCain enough to do anything that could make him look bad later, especially if he believes Obama will be elected anyway.  

      McCain could win Florida on his own.  It’s very close. But Crist won’t help him steal it. And, unlike 2004, there is a Dem SOS in Ohio this year.  The hijinks will have to  move to a new state this time.

      1. I didn’t quite mean it like that…but i see your point.

        Crist has done a great job by merely doing the right thing.  I said “somehow” because a lot of folks here are taking FL and a few other states for granted and are likely to be surprised by a close election tomorrow.

  9.    Obama wins 311 E.V. to McCain’s 227.  Obama wins the following states:  

      All six New England states, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, VA, OH, IL, IO, MI, WI, MN, CO, NM, NV, WA, OR, CA, and HA.

      Obama gets 52% of popular vote, McCain gets 47%, with the wing nut candidates collectively getting 1%.  (The national popular vote runs very closely to the vote percentages in Colorado.)

      The Dems pick up 8 Senate seats (NH, VA, NC, NM, CO, MN, OR, AL), and end up with 58 seats in Jan. after Joe Lieberman is asked never to darken the Senate Dems Caucus again.

      The Dems pick up a net of 25 House seats.  The gross number of picked up seats is 29 or 30, but they lose the seats of Kanjorski in PA, Lampson in TX, maybe Murtha in PA, and definitely the guy in FL who replaced Mark Foley in ’06.

  10. Obama takes every yellow state on pollster.com, but does not get SD or AZ. If McCain does get 1 yellow state, it’s IN.

    Markey & Udall both win by more than 5 points, possibly 10. It’s big enough that the Repubs start to realize that retaking either seat will be very very hard.

    The only initiatives to pass are 46 and 59, and both by maybe 2 points, as well as M & N. 58 I hope & hope will pass, but I worry that it will lose by 1 vote.

    Joe Whitcomb wins by 3 votes because that election is being voted by party, not by the individuals running – and it’s a Democratic year. (As no one in the district knows who Shawn Mitchell is there’s no incumbent advantage.)

    Nationally I think we’ll get 58 or 59 Senate seats. We’ll get Franklin, GA will be a win for us or will require another run with no majority. AK is ours and KY we will probably just miss.

    CA will keep gay marriage legal as people who are unsure will figure leave it be.

    Outliers I hope we get: MT for Obama, KY senate, and all 3 AZ House seats. That combo would have a major psychological impact on the Republicans.

    1. I think 59 is the only one that passes here.

      Prop 8 in California fails (i.e., gay marriage stays legal).

      Gregoire just barely keeps the governorship in Washington. And just for the hell of it, let’s say we pull an upset in Indiana, and win Missouri.

  11. I think McCain loses 349-189, Obama gets the popular vote 53-45%.

    Obama wins Colorado 51-47%.  Udall wins 53-44%.

    Dems gain seats from VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, NC, OR for 58 total seats.  Minnesota is a real tossup for me, but I think Coleman might just pull that off.  Chambliss survives in GA, but I suspect that will go to a runoff.

    Dems make big gains in the US House, but we pick up a couple of seats (4).

    Republicans make a couple of gains in CO House and/or Senate, Roupe wins in Colorado Springs.  But no thanks to Dick Wadhams.

    2. Very scary.

      I agree on most races–even the MN (Franken is a tough lever to pull), but Minnesotans are an odd political bunch (I know I’m from northern MN: curious note Begich’s(AK) family has a northern MN political pedigree). I think its a net 27 dems (Ds lose 3)

      I think your electoral is close, but I have slightly different EV.

          1. I guess I’d better work on that!

            Honestly, I don’t remember how well I did during the primary season, but I’ll take the compliment none the less.

            A man can live a good couple of months on a good compliment.  🙂

        1. something about himsurfing and living in Mexico IIRC, and how there was popular support from “the people” were asking him to run for Prez as a 3rd party candidate.

          Two words – total doofus.  

      1. I think if Wadhams admits after the election that he made a mistake in spliting his time between Schaffer and the state party (despite having an ex. director), and asks for forgiveness, I think people will give him another shot.

        If not, I think he’ll have to step down.

        A friend of mine and I talked this weekend.  He made a good point.  He said “once someone told me that you only have 100% to give.  You can do multiple things at once, and you can do multiple things well at once, but you can’t give multiple things 100%”

    4. and how did you steal my numbers.  Eerie.  Same EV’s same Obama and McCain popular vote.  Identical splits Obama and Udall wins in Colorado, identical US Senate except I think Franken wins Minnesota.

      I don’t think the Dems gain as many seats in the house, maybe just 20 net.

      As I said above, I disagree with Colorado legislature numbers.

      I think Amendments 46, 47, 49, 52, 54, and 59 are defeated and Amendments 50 and 58 pass.

        1. Steny Hoyer put a floor on it this morning: he thinks 15 seats would be a good gain.  I think the Democrats will net significantly more than that, which would be a sea change.  Rarely do parties who gain big in an election follow it up with another big gain in the next.

          Seriously solid predictions above, BTW.  I’m a bit more optimistic on Dem Senate chances, but I think a lot of the other numbers are pretty solid.

          1. Republicans still need a couple more years to get their crap together.  Perfect the energy plan, and come up with one or two new ideas (hard then it sounds, granted), and start target specific races on the state and federal level with an eye towards redistricting.

            But at this point, we’re doing good to keep a filibuster proof minority in the Senate.  McConnell, Chambliss and Coleman are absolutely necessary for that.  If we lose any two out of those three, and we’re in trouble (and the country).

  13. I feel like the character on SNL that can not control her excitement over parties and secrets.  I think Kristen Wiig is the cast member that plays her.

    Tomorrow night I will bouncing off the wall.

    WEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. and predict a narrower than expected election on some counts.

    Obama 306 to McCain 232

    I think we’ll see some surprises in the Senate.  Gordon Smith,  Norm Coleman, and Liddy Dole hold their seats just barely.  KY and GA stay in the republican column as well.  That leaves Democrats at 56 seats, I think.

    The House could be worse than expected.  I doubt we’ll take Paul Kanjorski’s or Murtha’s seat just to make it worse.  Democrats 266 to 169

  15. Ambitious? Yes, but I’ve been yammering on to all my friends that the polls are missing loads of new, young voters in states where Obama’s campaign had large GOTV efforts, and it’s time to put my money where my mouth is. The states that held caucuses are being grossly under represented. (remember the 2 pt. advantage for Obama on caucus night? He won 2:1) That’s why I think ND is a no-brainer, and I think GA is waaaaaaay closer than the polls suggest (but still, that’s 382 if I’m wrong). Oh, and I think he’ll even pick up a single vote in NE with their congressional district method of splitting the votes.

  16. Udall wins easily

    Obama wins by 3 or 4%

    Risberg wins in SW Colorado as DA

    John Salazar wins (yawner)

    Wally White retained as La Plata county commissioner, winning by 5 to 8%

    Kellie Hotter is elected as county commissioner, defeating Peter Tregillus.

    And, Ellen Roberts is re-elected to the House.

    Post election there will be much talk and talk about Hotter and Roberts pushing the La Plata County Republicans to clean house and get a chair that will turn the party in a positive direction.  In the end, neither one will actually try to do anything and the right wing will continue to dominate the party.  Only Republicans who run as moderates will win but they won’t attempt a re-structuring.

    1. That anyone has the horses to take out the leadership of the Republican Party.  Unfortuantely, people like Ellen Roberts are a dying breed.  The party is completely controlled by the Sarah Palin’s of the world and there is no way to get rid of them.   They will tolerate the RINO’s only if they absolutely have to, but they would rather have the Democrats in charge than have RINO’s in office.  (See the last 8 years in this state).

      Rational Republicans have given up or died and that’s only going to accelerate.

      The only talk post-election by the Republicans will be that they weren’t “conservative” enough and that McCain was a RINO and liberal and they need to purge the party of these people and they will win.

      It’s what I’ve been waiting for as an ex-Republican and what I’ve seen coming for 16 years.  I predict that in another 10 years of less, the only thing left to the Democrats will be Utah and Idaho and the old deep south (maybe minus GA).

      1. We will remain a 2 party country – the system pretty much gaurantees it. The Republican party may split but there will be a conservative opposition to us Dems that will be competitively nationally.

        However, it may take a bit of time…

  17. Winners

    Udall

    Markey

    Perlmutter

    Polis

    Degette

    Coffman

    Lamborn

    Salazar

    State house races that I care about in my neck of the woods.

    Joyce Foster,Lois COurt, and Joe Miklosi all win.

    Unfortunately, gambling limits probably fail

  18. So I’ll sacrifice myself:

    Obama-Biden 431 – including MT, SD, GA, NC, AR, WV, FL, AZ, IN, OH, AK, and SC

    McCain-Palin 107.

    Popular vote: 55% Obama, 43% McCain, 2% Others.

    I know, I know: unlikely. But I hope there’s been woeful undercounting of young and minority voters.

  19. if you go to RealClearPolitics.com, look up the electoral count map, and start clicking on states to switch them from blue to red.

    McCain can win Iowa, Florida, NC, VA, PA, OH and VA and would still lose 270-268!

    If McCain wins all the above states except Iowa – in other words he sweeps FL, NC, VA, PA, OH and VA, and wins Colorado instead of Iowa, McCain wins 270-268. But will that possibly happen at this late stage?

  20. I predict a blow out for Obama 406 to 132, with Obama taking Arizona (two words: Navajo Nation) along with underpolled Montana and North Dakota, plus toss up states and Georgia.

    1. I think that whoever wins will win by a very small margin.  I’m hoping Christine can pull it off.  She has no problem with Summit County, looks pretty good out in Lake, but there are a lot of voters in Eagle who don’t know Christine.  If she can keep Eagle County close, she should have it.

  24. We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;

    For he to-day that sheds his blood with me

    Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,

    This day shall gentle his condition;

    And gentlemen in England now-a-bed

    Shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here,

    And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks

    That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day.

    — William Shakespeare, Henry the DXXXVIII

  25. Obama wins all Kerry States+Ohio, NC, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Nevada, and Florida.

    All Governor’s offices stay the same, except Missouri, which goes Dem.

    In the Senate, R’s get nothing, D’s gain Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina, while Georgia goes to a run-off.  Beyond that, I can’t say.  I want the ever-so-odious Saxby Chambliss to lose.  

    In the House, the Dems get, AK-AL, CA-04, WA-08, ID-01, NV-03, AZ-01, NM-01, NM-02, CO-04, MN-03, MN-06, IL-11, MI-07, MI-09, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, FL-08, FL-24, NC-08, VA-11, MD-01 (barely), NJ-03, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, CT-04.  And the Republicans, will take FL-16 (Natch and good riddance), PA-11, and, unfortunately, TX-22.

    In the state, R’s get HD-40 back, though they only lost it by driving one of their own out of the party.  While D’s gain HD-25 in the house.  Andrew Scriptor is a good enough candidate to pull it off.  Gagliardi Holds on in HD27, while in the State Senate, Evie Hudak wins SD19, and Joe Whitcomb wins SD23 and all three of the commissioners in Jeffco (my turf) go Dem.  

        1. Could you please tell David that John McCain has more patriotism in the corn in his crap than he will ever hope to have ?

          I just want to witness that line one more time !

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