U.S. Senate See Full Big Line

(D) J. Hickenlooper*

(R) Somebody

80%

20%

(D) Phil Weiser

(D) Joe Neguse

(D) Jena Griswold

60%

60%

40%↓

Att. General See Full Big Line

(D) M. Dougherty

(D) Alexis King

(D) Brian Mason

40%

40%

30%

Sec. of State See Full Big Line
(D) A. Gonzalez

(D) George Stern

(R) Sheri Davis

50%↑

40%

30%

State Treasurer See Full Big Line

(D) Brianna Titone

(R) Kevin Grantham

(D) Jerry DiTullio

60%

30%

20%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) Somebody

90%

2%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Somebody

90%

2%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Hurd*

(D) Somebody

80%

40%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert*

(D) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank*

(D) Somebody

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(R) Gabe Evans*

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(D) Joe Salazar

50%

40%

40%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
March 30, 2009 11:42 PM UTC

NY-20 Prediction Time

  • 17 Comments
  • by: Haners

The special election to fill appointed Senator Gillbrand’s seat in the US House in taking place tomorrow.

Though the district has a 70,000 Republican voter registration advantage, Obama carried this district and recent polling suggests that the race will be close.

Both sides have nationalized the race on either acceptance or a rejection of Obama’s economic policies, but the race will come down to a couple of factors.

One:  Tone

The Republican candidate came out of the gate swinging at his Democratic opponent.  The tone quickly became negative, and the Democratic candidate started gaining ground.  The Republican tried to improve the tone of the race, but the damage was already done.  Now the campaigns are trading accusations of being pro-AIG bonuses or stalling economic recovery.

Two:  Turnout

It’s pretty basic-who will turn out?  Democrats are going to need to run a good turnout effort to over come the kind of disadvantage that they face-which is why Democrats are painting this as a referendum on Bush, Palin, and Limbaugh.  But who is more motivated?  Democrats looking for blood, or Republicans looking for a bright spot?

So the dye is cast, and who do you think is going to win?



My prediction coming later today

Who will win in NY-20?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Comments

17 thoughts on “NY-20 Prediction Time

  1. N.Y. has numerous minor parties on the ballot and Independence Party (the local affiliate of Ross Perot’s Reform Party) is still active in N.Y. and well financed.

      1.    I had read that there was a minor party candidate on the ballot some weeks back.  So it was the libertarian and they struck his name?  Then my guess is that the %’s will have to add up to 100.  I say Murphy 51%, Jimmy Disco 49%

          Murphy probably rec’d the WFP endorsement.

        1. He was polling at 2%, seemingly taking equally from R’s and D’s. Tedisco challenged his signatures and succeeded in getting him off the ballot, which seems to be the only reason Sundland endorsed Murphy.

  2. N.Y. has numerous minor parties on the ballot and Independence Party (the local affiliate of Ross Perot’s Reform Party) is still active in N.Y. and well financed.

  3. …any bets on how much longer Michael Steele stays on as RNC Chair?  

      My guess is that if Murphy wins and the next quarterly report shows fundraising down, Steele is shown the door.

    1. R’s aren’t going to throw Steele under the bus, unless they’re linked to the second place finisher.  They’re a bunch of sore losers…and Steele hasn’t stepped in it lately.  He’s regaining ground regardless of what happens tonight.

  4. I think that the “Get Rid of Michael Steele” chorus begins in earnest about 24 hours after (I’m giving the people credit over the pundits).

    Cong. Murphy will be a good Representative for Albany and it’s surrounding areas. Jim Tedisco can keep his job in the state legislature.

    Though, I’ll say it here: Jim Tedisco would have won this race by 5-8 points had he said he would’ve voted for the stimulus package. R’s still would’ve voted for him and Indies would’ve been less put off.

    1. To be fair, the RCCC (and a couple outside crazy groups) has had far more to do with Tedisco’s fortunes in this race than the RNC, and it’s only a few prominent Republicans who have tied this race around Steele’s neck.

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Gabe Evans
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

116 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!