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April 22, 2009 12:07 AM UTC

New Obama/Udall Poll Questionable, But...

  • 20 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

From Politics West:

Favorability ratings for President Barack Obama and Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado have fallen beneath 50 percent in a new poll out this morning.

A survey from Raleigh, N.C.-based Public Policy Polling found 49 percent of Colorado voters approved of Obama’s performance, compared to 41 percent who dissented. Udall found support from 41 percent of respondents, with 46 percent disapproving of his first three months in the U.S. Senate.

While support for both Obama and Udall is strong among those who identified as Democrats, the poll found they are losing support of unaffiliated voters — a key to both men’s victories in the state in November.

“Some of the voters in the middle who cast votes for Barack Obama and Mark Udall last fall aren’t giving them the best of reviews for their work so far,” Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, said in a release. “Getting those folks back in their corner is going to be very important moving forward.”

The automated telephone poll of 1,050 Colorado voters was conducted April 17th -19 and has a margin of error of 3 percent…

A couple of methodology notes: as an automated telephone poll, this was likely to have a rather high non-response or “hang up” rate–and it’s also impossible for pollsters to know for sure who was really responding. In terms of “self-identification,” 38% of respondents identified as “Republican,” compared to 26% “Independent” and 36% “Democrat.” Obviously, this isn’t reflective of actual voter breakdown in Colorado–note that the pollsters will likely agree with this assessment, it’s what you get with this kind of poll.

With all that in mind, what does this poll say? For one thing, it indicates more Republicans approve of Obama’s performance so far than Democrats disapprove, which means that the partisan rank-closing so eagerly sought by Republicans since the election is not quite complete. Note this doesn’t appear to be the case for Mark Udall, who caught more heat from fellow Democrats than Obama–a sign that “Conservadem” friendly fire is having an impact? Possibly, but it will take more than one methodologically-flimsy poll to know for sure.

The bottom line for this poll is that it’s early, probably the least-accurate scientific polling method used today, and as a result shouldn’t be taken as gospel–but it reflects something entirely predictable going into Obama’s first midterm. That’s reason enough for Democrats to consider these results carefully, even though we’re guessing a large percentage of respondents couldn’t even name Sen. Udall without prompting.

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20 thoughts on “New Obama/Udall Poll Questionable, But…”

  1. but this should be some sort of wake up call to Udall & Obama, but particularly to Udall. Even though he’s not up for re-election for a while now, the beginning of his term is when the voters are going to create an image for him that he’ll carry throughout the rest of his term, and it will absolutely define his re-election hopes. Bottom line, it doesn’t seem to jive that Udall needs to be more moderate or liberal, his policy isn’t the problem because his policy hasn’t changed. However I do think he needs to be generating more buzz and excitement around himself — he needs to be more visible. During the campaign he was, of course, everywhere, on every TV, on the news and in conversation; helped by the monumental nature of the presidential election.

    Now, unless he starts to generate some excitement among his voting bloc (democrats plus moderates) he’s going to wear the title “Udall the inert” all the way to re-election. And that is not going to be a good thing.

    1. I wouldn’t give this poll any worry. Worry about Obama’s number in 2012. Worry about Udall’s in 2014.

      I guess it’s relevant enough for the Pols to post, but I’m not going to fret until I see a poll on someone actually running in the next election.

    2. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 34% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-two percent (32%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of +2

      Presidential Approval Index

      04/21/2009

      +2

      04/20/2009

      +3

      04/19/2009

      +6

      04/18/2009

      +7

      04/17/2009

      +3

      04/16/2009

      +4

      04/15/2009

      +2

      04/14/2009

      +3

      04/13/2009

      +2

      04/12/2009

      +2

      04/11/2009

      +5

      04/10/2009

      +5

      04/09/2009

      +5

      1. and use a pollster other than Rassmussen to make your point about Obama’s approval rating. We’ve shown time and time again that it’s an obvious outlier among the polls, and Obama’s approval has remained steady in every other poll.

        Once again, I’ll refer you to (Karl Rove-endorsed) RCP:

        Every single other tracking poll has Obama’s spread at +20 or above. Rass is almost laughably outside of this at +9, but even then they have Obama at a 54% approval rating–hardly indicative of rioting in the streets.

        The president’s approval rating has been around 60% since it dropped back down to reality from the 70s when he was inaugurated. Considering the state of the country when he took office, those numbers are nothing less than a clear endorsement of his job as chief executive.

        1. Rasmussen showed Obama and Udall winning handily last fall.  

          Rasmussen showed a national generic ballot at D +7 just before the election last year.  Pretty good predictor.  Rasmussen now shows the generic tied.

            1. but the indications are he is sliding.

              Generally this would indicate an unsound mix of policy, performance and expectations. However, in this case we might see a reset to previous levels if CNN can learn to spin better or the economy starts to rebound.

              But based on continuing concerns and ideas floating out of the Whitehouse, like bankrupting GM, many of those who supported the President are now questioning his campaign commitments.

              This was clearly the theme today on 710 or 760 (the Boulder channel that carries Jay Marvin)

              1. Of course Obama’s numbers are sliding.  He’s been a dissappointment so far.

                I was cautiously optomistic that we would actually see ‘change’ from him, but so far we have not.

                All he’s done is:

                • Send more troops to Afghanistan
                • Change the role of the army in Iraq to ‘advisors’ rather than bring them home
                • Expand on Bush’s already failing economic policies
                • Increase the deficit significantly
                • Make noise about gitmo without closing it
                • Defend and expand Bush’s constitutionally questionable wire-tapping policies

                In fact, the only ‘Change’ I’ve seen is our President flying around the world and apologizing for America.  Not really what I want to see out of the leader of the free world.

      2. and maybe compactify your posts a little?

        People who post using a lot

        of bold

        and

        spread out

        their

        posts

        into

        sixteen

        dozen

        lines

        look like

        kooks.

    1. There was a poll last fall about Ken Salazar’s potential re-election, and while his favorable rating wasn’t great, in potential head-to-head matchups with Republican opponents he won easily.

      Still, it’s strange that Udall got no honeymoon period.

      1. A lot of people did not vote for Udall. They voted for “Obama supporter, Democrat, not-Schaffer guy.”

        Betsy Markey faces the same question, but in her case she has & is putting in a really strong & effective effort to sell her constituents on herself.

        Udall has gone back to the witness protection program and so when people were looking to see what they actually got, he’s gone.

        1. there was someone running against Mark Udall?

          Who?

          Both-ways Bob?

          Marianas Bob?

          Idiot Bob?

          My prediction is in 2014: Udall 63.4%.

          Call me (+1.303.744.9024) in 5.5 years and I will buy the beer if my prediction is crap.

    1. Indeed, the self-referentiality of day-time favorabililty push polls is really just a test of how well spin machines are churning on both sides.  Voter’s have no active role to play at this point, and so what we learn from this is that Independents are watching Fox again, rather than reading newspapers (the few that remain), reading leaflets, and talking to their neighbors. In the first 100 days, Dems have tried to stand on their agenda alone, while Repubs have invested time and energy in counter-branding Obama and anyone who stands with him.  All this says to me is that Plouffe and Axelrod need to get busy again doing what they do best, and leave the governing to Obama and Emanuel.

  5. Yes, Obama’s support is eroding. Yes, good conservatives and independents in Colorado are beginning to regret their votes for Udall. And the process will continue, but it won’t be them to suffer, at least not yet! Got to wait until 2012/2014 for that.

    What did you lefties call Bush for the first four years? Ah yes. A “one term president.”

    This is a a conservative nation.

  6. And, as they admit, the reason they get much lower approval ratings than any other pollster.

    People get pissed off at machines and give them pissed-off opinions.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

    Methodology – Rasmussen Reports uses an automated polling methodology while some firms use operator-assisted techniques. Generally, these different methodologies generate about the same level of approval for different political figures, but the automated technology generally registers a higher level of disapproval. There’s no way to be sure why this happens, but it may simply be that some people are reluctant to offer a negative opinion about another human being to a live operator.

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