October 25, 2017 01:34 PM UTC

Tancredo Tops GOP Field in New Gubernatorial Poll

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: We almost forgot to point out this an unintentionally hilarious quote in Luning’s story from Ryan Lynch, the campaign manager for Republican George Brauchler:

“With momentum on his side, George has advanced to the top of the GOP field for governor.”

This is not what momentum looks like.

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Former Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo is still weighing a potential campaign for governor in 2018, and according to a new poll, things seem to be falling into place for the Tanc. As Ernest Luning reports for the publication formerly known as the Colorado Statesman, Tancredo is the odds-on favorite in a crowded Republican field of candidates:

Tancredo holds a wide lead in Colorado’s crowded Republican gubernatorial primary field and is in a statistical tie with leading Democratic candidate Jared Polis, according to a survey conducted by the pollster who set up the polling and data operations for Donald Trump’s  presidential campaign.

The poll shows about half the likely primary and general election voters are undecided roughly eight months before the primary and a year before the general election.

The results of the poll, obtained exclusively by Colorado Politics, show “a real path to victory” for Tancredo, a former congressman and two-time candidate for governor, said pollster Matt Braynard of the Washington-based Braynard Group.

The survey of 1,000 likely Colorado voters and 400 likely Republican primary election voters, conducted in late September, shows Tancredo atop a primary field of six declared and potential GOP candidates with 22.1 percent support, with the runner-up, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, showing 8.5 percent support. [Pols emphasis]

District Attorney George Brauchler was next with 6.8 percent, followed by Attorney General Cynthia Coffman — a potential gubernatorial candidate who hasn’t declared her plans — with 5.6 percent. Former state lawmaker and businessman Victor Mitchell polls at 0.8 percent, and former investment banker Doug Robinson had 0.3 percent. (Braynard didn’t include declared candidates Steve Barlock, Greg Lopez and Jim Rundberg in the survey.)

As we’ve said many times in this space, a 2018 gubernatorial run for Tancredo actually makes a lot of sense — moreso than it ever has in the past. Tancredo ran for governor in 2010 (under the banner of the American Constitution Party) and again in 2014 (as a Republican), but the national political mood is setting up much better for Tancredo in 2018.

Moderate-ish Republicans such as Sen. Jeff Flake and Sen. Bob Corker are declining to run for re-election in 2018 in part because they don’t think they can make it through a Republican Primary. Steve Bannon, a former Trump adviser, is championing a wave of right-wing Republicans that already picked up a big victory in Alabama with Roy Moore’s landslide win in a GOP primary; just last month, Bannon met with Tancredo to talk about running for governor. And the timing is even right for Tancredo’s immigration reform message — an issue that didn’t have nearly the same attraction in 2010 or 2014 as it does this cycle.

Quite frankly, there are more reasons for Tancredo to join the double-digit field of Republican candidates than there are for him to stay away from the race. If Tancredo does not run for governor in 2018 it will be because he just doesn’t want to do it…and the Tanc wouldn’t even be talking about this if he wasn’t already very interested.